08-12-2010, 04:02 AM | #1 |
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Ebooks now 8.5% of sales, expected to climb to 40% in 3-5 years
This from the New York Times. To me the important statement was from Simon and Shuster rep who said they thought sales of ebooks could climb to 40% of sales within 3-5 years. When that happens, say goodbye to traditional bookstores:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/12/bu...store.html?hpw My prediction (for whatever it's worth): the bookstores will show off a handful of the very best sellers in print form and offer to sell ebooks for the rest of the titles. I also think they may start installing machines that can build a book instantly using PoD technology so that people who prefer real paper will be able to buy a book in print on the spot. Edit: Sorry, 8%, not 8.5%. Eric |
08-12-2010, 04:10 AM | #2 | |
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08-12-2010, 06:17 AM | #3 | |
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I my view, ebooks are likely to increase reading. They just threaten the people who currently make money out of pbooks. |
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08-12-2010, 09:06 AM | #4 |
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I think that we will see the return of the independent bookstore in the next 10-20 years. As the big chains have to change their business model and start closing stores you will see the independent book store reopen to provide the DTB to the person who loves the DTB. I see them as similar to smaller record stores that have opened to sell the actual vynal (sp) album.
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08-12-2010, 09:23 AM | #5 | |
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08-12-2010, 11:27 AM | #6 |
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Imho the number of local bookshops will plunge before it recovers in another form. The numbers just don't add up to finance small book stores while this whole surge to eBooks takes place over the coming 5 years. I believe the numbers will plunge, and go to side streets. They will change fundamentally though. I believe Procrash is right in the vinyl comparison. Paper books will ALWAYS be sold (well, by always I mean at least 50 more years...LOL). I truly believe that. But they will be small print runs, cost a premium price, and the title list will be limited. There will also be a rise of specialist printers printing premium quality prints with specialist covers, binding, paper, etc. Paper books will become a moderately luxury 'retro' item.
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08-12-2010, 12:58 PM | #7 |
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Paper book selling will have to change. The "BIG" book sellers will have to go online or the publishers will have to do that to stay alive.
The biggest winners, for a while, may be used book stores for those who "just have to have a real book" to read from. Personally, I think that ebooks will catch on faster than expected. Wouldn't it be funny if Amazon starts offering print on demand service with free shipping to those who want paper books? |
08-12-2010, 01:01 PM | #8 |
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As an author, I've accepted the idea that beyond 2012, print books will be such an insignificant part of my sales that the whole concept of getting my books into bookstores will be moot. As a consequence, I'm not likely to sign any more contracts with traditional publishers. At least, that's what I tell myself.
L.J. |
08-12-2010, 01:16 PM | #9 |
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Ah, another doomsday for p-books thread.
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08-12-2010, 01:34 PM | #10 | |
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Sure, we'll see a greater uptake in ebooks for a while still, but then stall for a few years once the niche is saturated. It'll only resume again and move upwards towards totally replacing print books as older, more traditional readers either make the jump to ebooks, or the younger generation becomes the majority buyers. And again, I'm not dissing ebooks. I'm merely taking a more realistic look at the market. Just look at netbooks. They were flying off the shelves in the early days, and now the market has stagnated. Will it grow again? Yes, but much slower. Ebooks will do the same. They'll continue to grow for a while longer, stagnate, and then move up again. It's normal market cycles. There's the big rush of acceptance from early adopters, the pause when that market is exhausted, and then the slow but methodical march into mainstream usage. |
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08-12-2010, 03:42 PM | #11 |
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I don't think that it is. I think it is a discussion of how e-books will share space with DTB.
I agree that there will be a continued decline in the independent book store in the near future. As the large chain stores start changing their marketing and sales pitch (more games, DVD's, toys, and some books) the space for the independent book seller will start to open up. I almost think that the first step will be Used Book Stores that end up sharing space with new books. I think the two can share space pretty easily. The new books would be the hard backs and paper backs as they are released. They hold off on selling the used versions for a couple of months, to encourage new book sales, and then cut back on the number of new books that they order and bring out the used version of the book. There is always going to be a place for paper books, the storefront is going to change. |
08-12-2010, 04:00 PM | #12 |
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Even if the e-book replaces mass market paperbacks, I'm sure select hardcovers or even trade paperbacks of the really great books will continue to be published - they might just turn into a specialty item. I've noticed a lot of mass market paperbacks increasing in size to the point where some of them are almost the same size as a trade paperback.
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08-12-2010, 04:06 PM | #13 | |
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I'm not sure I agree with the time frame, and I expect paper to stick around for some time, but brick and mortar bookstores are roadkill. The only plausible exception is super-niche stores in big cities or serving a very specific community, e.g. art books, college bookstores, used books. Even the used stores will eventually get strangled by the dearth of remainders and new paper books. |
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08-12-2010, 04:17 PM | #14 |
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Kind of, but given the changes that are going on this early in the life of ebooks it's really hard to project a couple of years ahead and not see dramatic changes in the paperbook market. I don't expect paperbooks to go away entirely, and I don't want them to, but I do see a big shift to ebookis, and a dwindling market for paper, coming.
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08-12-2010, 04:20 PM | #15 |
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One thing I haven't seen mentioned in this topic is the fact that paper books belong to the purchaser to do with as they wish but ebooks belong to the publisher/writer and the purchaser has no rights except to read it as is. Ebooks currently may not be sold, traded or even given away. Until or unless this changes I will still buy and keep pbooks along with ebooks.
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