Amazon gets exclusivity deal

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by J. Strnad

we've seen exactly this behavior before in the Beta vs. VHS war. Each format tried to sign up exclusive deals with studios to force fans of those films to buy their format. Some studios bit and made deals.

The tactic doesn't work. Buyers are soon faced with a no-win situation in which they need A's machine for movies from Studios 1, 3, and 5, and they need B's machine for movies from Studios 2, 4, and 6.

Sort of like, oh, how you need a Wii to play Wii-only games, and an Xbox to play Xbox games? Or a Mac to run Mac-exclusive apps, and a copy of Windows to run Windows apps? Or K-Cups if you're going to use a Keurig brewer?

Also, retailers have occasionally run exclusives, though not typically for an entire work. E.g. Apple routinely gets exclusive content for its iTunes store.

I won't say I'm thrilled by exclusives like this, but clearly it can work, and with ebooks the vendor lock-in is at least partially mitigated by wider platform availability.

[EowynCarter]

Sort of like, oh, how you need a Wii to play Wii-only games, and an Xbox to play Xbox games? Or a Mac to run Mac-exclusive apps, and a copy of Windows to run Windows apps?

And that seriously annoys me.
At least for game, it can be justified by the porting costs...

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

This is what an engineer would call "a self defeating critera". Stop and look at this from an author's situation. If I'm self publishing and are getting 20,000+ sales a year, I ought to be getting at least a couple bucks a book. That's $40,000 a year.

At 50,000+ a year, that's $100,000 a year. At that point, why do I need a BPH?

• Publishers soak up a lot of the expenses, including editing, legal, and marketing costs.
• Publisher will almost certainly promise bigger distribution and thus bigger sales. E.g. if they can sell 50k self-published books, the publisher will likely say "work with us and you can sell millions." (And in at least some cases, they'll be right.)
• Publishers offer advances, and fairly large ones these days. And yes, I'd say that someone dumping $100k in your lap every year or two, plus intermittent payments, is both enticing and alters your schedule.
• The author may want to work with a specific editor, or a higher caliber of editor than one they can hire as a freelancer.
• Self-publishers, at this time, have little chance of getting reviewed and zero marketing resources.
• Larger publishing houses will have the resources to translate and internationally distribute the books.
• Many authors are more interested in being a writer than in being a publisher, marketer, accountant, lawyer, and so forth.

Heck, even authors who have the presence and financial wherewithal to run the show still stick to publishers, including James Patterson, Stephen King, Stephanie Meyer, JK Rowling and so forth.

Finally, I'm reasonably certain that whatever happens in the future, even if today's publishers go down in flames, some other big conglomerates will step in and dominate in similar ways and to similar extents. It may be retailers, it may be agents, it may be marketers, or some other type of institution. But I doubt that ebooks will usher in a golden age of Author Independence in which everything is hunky-dory and the "evil" publishers are all gone.

[AnemicOak]

Originally Posted by Steven Lake

Oh, so it would be like the minor leagues for authors. You do good, they put you in there. You do good there, then they move you up to the big house. It's an interesting concept. I can't say it wouldn't work, but I would most certainly be interested in seeing how it would actually play out.

It's kinda already happening, in Romance anyway (which is way ahead of other genres as far as ebooks go for the most part). There are a number of authors who write for digital first publishers who have then moved to big pubs. From what I've read some pubs are actively farming those small pubs for authors.

[HamsterRage]

Originally Posted by EowynCarter

And that seriously annoys me.
At least for game, it can be justified by the porting costs...

I've got a PS3 and an Xbox360. There are only a very small handful of games that don't run on both platforms. The Wii's a bit different, largely because of its odd controllers and the fact that the system is so underpowered compared to the other two. I think the audience for Wii is quite a bit different from the audience for PS3 and Xbox and the nature of the games reflects that.

[Redfox]

Originally Posted by Steven Lake

And here's the general breakdown of success based on my own research. The actual numbers will vary by publisher, but this does act as a reasonable guide to show you how they do their research. And these numbers are based on the minimum total sales within a single 12 month period required to elicit the listed response.

Forgive my ignorance, Steven, but those numbers you quoted are huge compared to traditional dead-trees sales for new authors, where selling 10k is considered good. Is that half a million books spread across multiple titles? And what cover price are we talking about? I know Joe Konrath finds that cheaper ebooks sell in higher volumes, but there must be some sweet spot between "too close to paper prices" and "so cheap it must be $h!t"

[L.J. Sellers]

Agencies setting up publishing ventures, particularly for manuscripts they love but can't sell, is becoming a trend. This may be what keeps agents relevant in the near future. It will certainly change their relationships with publishers.
L.J.

[AnemicOak]

Originally Posted by L.J. Sellers

Agencies setting up publishing ventures, particularly for manuscripts they love but can't sell, is becoming a trend. This may be what keeps agents relevant in the near future. It will certainly change their relationships with publishers.
L.J.

I wonder though if agents doing this wouldn't be considered a form of self dealing. They might have a hard time proving it's not if a court case were ever to happen. I'm not a lawyer, but it seems like it might end up being a problem to me.

[HamsterRage]

Originally Posted by Steven Lake

I honestly think that in 10 years or so, the only way to get into a big house, sign with an agent, or even get into a small house in some cases, will be to first self publish, and then prove yourself as an author. Now I may be wrong, but I'm willing to bet that's where they'll both go in the near future.

I honestly think that 10 years or so, nobody on the planet will give the even the slightest thought about publishing houses big or small. The model will have moved on, because publishing will no longer require that you own or control factories full of printing presses and fleets of trucks to move the books around the country.

The recent flood of new devices and price drops for eReaders is going to be an extinction event for the big publishers.

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by HamsterRage

I honestly think that 10 years or so, nobody on the planet will give the even the slightest thought about publishing houses big or small....

That's what people thought about record labels 10 years ago, and they're still around.

Similarly, although I'm not sure it's working, you see big companies like LiveNation getting more involved in new businesses like concert promotion and merchandising, and taking a cut.

If there is money to be made, sooner or later there will be some type of consolidation and/or big players.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

They have to start somewhere, and Amazon and the Kindle are a good place to start. The question is what will happen when the exclusive period is up.
______
Dennis

I've seen this before and what mostly happens is they stay exclusive.

[MaggieScratch]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

Well, Amazon would like you to believe the vast majority of ebook readers are Kindle users, but since no one is releasing actual numbers, there's no way to confirm it. I'm willing to believe "majority". I question "vast".

Fair enough.

But meanwhile, it's a sensible deal for the folks involved.

Maybe for Amazon. I question the deal for the authors and publishers. Again, they are telling potential customers, "I don't want to sell you this book." It's not even "I am going to make it difficult or inconvenient or expensive to buy this book," which has been most of the arguments with the agency plans and DRM and the other things that annoy us. It's "I do not want to sell you this book." I don't see how that is good for the author or publisher--in particular the authors.

[Steven Lake]

Originally Posted by krischik

and Pirate Bay.

Honestly, I'd be honored to have my stuff up on the pirate bay. Yes, that seems a bit counter intuitive, but think of it this way. If pirates (while that's not the correct term for them, since everyone here calls them pirates anyways, I may as well use the term, even though it's grammatically and technically incorrect) won't share your stuff, then it's either not worth sharing, or you're not known well enough to be worth pirating. It's sorta like all the copycat acts in the music industry. The more people there are doing covers of your songs, the more popular you likely are. The same goes for books. If you're not worth pirating, they won't pirate you. So if you get pirated, consider it an achievement.

And no, I'm not condoning piracy. I'm merely pointing out a fact that pirates only pirate what they feel is worth something. The only exception might be if you're offering something they feel is worth it for free from another location. If it's free, and easy to get, they won't pirate it usually.

Originally Posted by AnemicOak

It's kinda already happening, in Romance anyway (which is way ahead of other genres as far as ebooks go for the most part). There are a number of authors who write for digital first publishers who have then moved to big pubs. From what I've read some pubs are actively farming those small pubs for authors.

Oh, so we're seeing this kinda movement in the romance world? Well then, we all know where to watch to see what's going to come down the pipe for the rest of the industry. It's nice to have a genre or group who's the forerunner of what will happen to everyone else. Then we know what to expect.

Originally Posted by Redfox

Forgive my ignorance, Steven, but those numbers you quoted are huge compared to traditional dead-trees sales for new authors, where selling 10k is considered good. Is that half a million books spread across multiple titles? And what cover price are we talking about? I know Joe Konrath finds that cheaper ebooks sell in higher volumes, but there must be some sweet spot between "too close to paper prices" and "so cheap it must be $h!t"

I don't know if it's dead tree only sales or not. I just know the numbers quoted to me. I'd say it's a safe bet to count both types, given the uptick in ebook sales these days. And those numbers are based on single title sales. Yes, I understand that's huge sales for a new, relatively unknown author. But, the big houses don't care. If they're talent scouting you, and they want to know if you've got what it takes, they want to see raw sales in respectably high numbers.

From what I've been able to find, unless you're in some kind of niche genre with low potential sales volume, even new authors with the big houses clear 10,000 books a year. That's only 835 books a month, or about 28 books a day. Dude, I can clear that many copies per title in just three months by working the convention and book show circuit. And that doesn't count bookstores and online sales. So a good book and good marketing will easily get you those numbers.

So if you're not selling books, you're either doing something wrong, or your book needs some work/improving. That's why the BHP's consider such large numbers as a sign that you're a worthwhile investment. Because if you can't clear that many books on your own, you're not worth their time.

Originally Posted by L.J. Sellers

Agencies setting up publishing ventures, particularly for manuscripts they love but can't sell, is becoming a trend. This may be what keeps agents relevant in the near future. It will certainly change their relationships with publishers.
L.J.

So in other words, the big houses won't take the risk on new, unproven authors, or good manuscripts they're afraid won't sell, so they create independent subsidiaries that take all the risk for them, and if it's a boom, they get all the benefit/praise, and if it's a bust, they lose nothing. Smart. Kinda like a farm club for publishing. It would be interesting to see where this goes.

Originally Posted by HamsterRage

...The recent flood of new devices and price drops for eReaders is going to be an extinction event for the big publishers.

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

That's what people thought about record labels 10 years ago, and they're still around...

Darn, you beat me to it! lol. Yeah, it's true that big labels on the music side of things are hurting from the shift to the new model, and while a few of them will die, the rest will merely move into niche markets not yet touched by the new model, or they'll change to the new model that caters directly to artists with services rather than recording contracts. I see the publishing world going that direction eventually as well.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by Steven Lake

And by head hunting, I mean they're watching the book circles for authors who are self published, POD, and PTP, as well as some authors who are published with small houses like myself. So what are they looking for? Successful authors. Simply put, if you can succeed at self publishing, POD, or PTP, and even SPH to some degree, they're interested in you.

And here's the general breakdown of success based on my own research. The actual numbers will vary by publisher, but this does act as a reasonable guide to show you how they do their research. And these numbers are based on the minimum total sales within a single 12 month period required to elicit the listed response.

<...>

And just how do the BPHs determine those sales figures?

I'm having a hard time thinking of any self-published/POD/what have you authors I suspect might fall into the first of those categories, let alone the others.

And if God has worked a miracle to order, and you actually are selling 100,000+ copies a year, you hardly need a BPH, and are likely well aware of it.

Anywho, those numbers are based off my observations and are dependent on the BPH in question. But either way, it's a good goal to shoot for. Also, as a side note, some Agents are going to this method of scouting now too, where they will not accept any unsolicited queries for books, and instead go head hunting based on the total book sales of self published, POD, and PTP authors, as well as some SPH's.

Same question: where do they get verifiable sales figures?

I honestly think that in 10 years or so, the only way to get into a big house, sign with an agent, or even get into a small house in some cases, will be to first self publish, and then prove yourself as an author. Now I may be wrong, but I'm willing to bet that's where they'll both go in the near future.

<shrug> Agents make their living selling books to BPHs. Their interest is in books that they think will sell. I encountered a couple of folks who actually interested a major publisher in a manuscript and didn't have an agent, and were wondering if they should have one and how to get one.

The answer was "Yes, you should. The agent can do a better job than you of negotiating with the publisher and making a good deal. That's their job. And getting one won't be impossible because you have actual interest from a publisher. Approaching an agent with "I have interest from a publisher, and I'd like you to represent me and negotiate the contract for my book" will get far more attention than "I'm an unpublished author looking for an agent..."

You still face the issue of finding an agent working in the area you are targeting who can take on an additional client, but once you've identified one, you have a far better chance of getting their attention.
______
Dennis

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by HamsterRage

I honestly think that 10 years or so, nobody on the planet will give the even the slightest thought about publishing houses big or small. The model will have moved on, because publishing will no longer require that you own or control factories full of printing presses and fleets of trucks to move the books around the country.

BPHs don't own those things.

They contract with printers and binders to actually manufacture the print books they publish, and with trucking companies to transport them. They may own warehouses where books are stored prior to distribution, but I doubt that, too. It's also likely to be rented space, under contract.

BPHs are are in the business of acquiring and marketing content. They are not printers, distributors, or warehouses.

The recent flood of new devices and price drops for eReaders is going to be an extinction event for the big publishers.

That presumes books will go entirely digital, which is unlikely. There are a fair number of things out there that are poor fits for ebooks. I wouldn't want to try to read a "coffee table" art or photography volume on a reader, for example.

There likely will be casualties as some houses fail to successfully adapt, bit I don't see the big publishers going away entirely.
______
Dennis