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09-26-2011, 01:12 PM | #1 | |
Wizard
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Shatzkin:Ebooks may be eighty per cent of the book market in a few years
Intersting article on the Ebook market by Shatzkin, in which he tries to sum up what we know about the Ebook market. He makes this prediction:
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He walks it back in the comments to 80% for narrative books. Is even that a stretch? Last edited by stonetools; 09-26-2011 at 02:49 PM. |
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09-26-2011, 01:53 PM | #2 |
PHD in Horribleness
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About ten years ago, the manufacturing costs for some flat screen display technologiesdropped below the manufacturing costs for the cheapest cathode ray tubes.
Being the brave risk taking soul that I am, I went out on a limb and predicted that CRT screens would largely disappear. |
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09-26-2011, 01:56 PM | #3 |
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Only 80%?
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09-26-2011, 02:25 PM | #4 |
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I have little doubt they will be 80% of Amazon's book revenues.
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09-26-2011, 02:32 PM | #5 |
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Not non-fiction... why can't commentators (or as as previously been quoted, common taters) do their job properly... 80% of fiction? Maybe... 80% of non-fiction... no chance yet... hence 80% of all books? Get real...
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09-26-2011, 02:42 PM | #6 |
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80% of my books are ebooks right now, he was way off...
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09-26-2011, 02:47 PM | #7 | ||
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Quote:
Quote:
Last edited by stonetools; 09-26-2011 at 02:50 PM. |
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09-26-2011, 03:41 PM | #8 | |
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But, yeah, I don't see the 80% coming any time soon. |
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09-26-2011, 04:07 PM | #9 |
Chasing Butterflies
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Not all non-fiction has pictures. Many biographical, scientific, historical, and social studies written for broad public consumption (i.e., not college students) do NOT have pictures.
I have 1491 by Mann in eBook form. Several Barbara Ehrenreich eBooks. The Herman history and sex study books. James Randi and Martin Gardner's skeptic / science eBooks that are available. Quite a few books on religions... etc. These are all non-fiction. I dunno if 80% is reasonable. (And don't care.) But non-fiction as a whole is not all pictures. |
09-26-2011, 07:06 PM | #10 |
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09-26-2011, 07:22 PM | #11 | |
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09-27-2011, 03:45 AM | #12 |
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maybe 30-40% at most. according to experts blu-ray was supposed to have demolished dvd by now. its not happening.
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09-27-2011, 02:13 PM | #13 | |
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Quote:
1. It is.still a mechanical media with all the heat generation and component failure that entails. 2. The SDXC flashcard standard goes up to a 2Tb capacity. Blu-ray got leapfrogged by a smaller more ubiquitous media. 3. A lot of people prefer the immediacy of purchacing a download. You can save a download to a card or thumbdrive as easily as.to a bulky Blu-ray disk. 4. For those.who use small viewing screens, the higher definition is not only wasted....it makes file conversions take even longer. |
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09-27-2011, 03:12 PM | #14 | ||
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Quote:
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09-27-2011, 03:19 PM | #15 |
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Someone said that people often overestimate what will happen in 5 years and underestimate what will happen in 20.
I think that applies here. We may not be at 80% in 5 years but we'll likely be at 95% in 20. Then again, who foresaw the rapid demise of first record, then video rental stores? Those happened relatively quickly. Indeed, who foresaw Borders' bankruptcy? |
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