Corporate Publishing under stress

[Fbone]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Movie box office is up this year over last; bad weather certainly didn't stop people from coming out to theaters.
Video games have been trending up this year.
Even PCs are trending up.
Publishing is trending down by a lot.

You just confirmed my previous statement. People are doing other things besides reading.

BPH ebook prices have ranged between $10-$15 since 2010. But at the same time we had a few super bestsellers published; Larsson trilogy, Hunger Games trilogy and 50 Shades. Just looking at 50 Shades' numbers, the publisher sold 125 million copies which earned them easily half a billion dollars. These are windfalls not currently being repeated. Who knows the current revenues could be the norm absent the mega sellers.

The AAP stated ebook sales down 9.3% with 1200 publishers reporting most of whom aren't agency priced.

Added: Movie ticket sales would have been higher this winter if we weren't buried under 4 feet of snow. Fortunately, the rest of the country experienced a mild winter and they made up for it.

[Fbone]

Originally Posted by TimW

The first time I can recall breathless reports of the decline of reading and that even those who read anything were reading puerile rubbish was when I was growing up...in the 1970s. The decline of reading has long been CW and the reasons given were many of the ones you listed. Even S. Jobs confidently proclaimed back in 2008 that the Kindle would fail because "no one reads any more." He was incorrect. If he were alive to repeat the statement today, he would still be incorrect.

The latest studies (depending on which you use) say 24-28% of Americans haven't read a book in a year. This is up from 21% but better than figures from 2004. Ebooks and audiobooks have helped get people to read. However, the median is still 5 books a year, down from 7 in 2007. I need to add that neither study defines "book" and the respondents can include comic books, graphic novels and internet posts.

http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/01/1...nership-jumps/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/1...n_4045937.html

[dickloraine]

eBook sales for publishers decline, but eBook sales for amazon rise. Better pricing and a greater choice and other factors lead to rising indi sales. Which means that instead of harming amazon, publishers just harmed themselves while amazon grows the market without them. Additionally I think, the biggest problem for publishers in the future is not amazon, but indi publishing. Amazon is the one who makes that possible, but fighting amazon is not fighting the problem.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by conan50

Because higher prices mean they sell more ebooks?
They have shot themselves in the foot with a .12 shotgun. That coupled with the massive increase of low priced Indie published ebooks is definitely taking a toll on them.

If you have only so much money to spend on eBooks, that money will buy less and sales will drop. I also think more people are frequenting Overdrive and/or 3M where they can to get eBooks instead of buying.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by dickloraine

eBook sales for publishers decline, but eBook sales for amazon rise. Better pricing and a greater choice and other factors lead to rising indi sales. Which means that instead of harming amazon, publishers just harmed themselves while amazon grows the market without them. Additionally I think, the biggest problem for publishers in the future is not amazon, but indi publishing. Amazon is the one who makes that possible, but fighting amazon is not fighting the problem.

It's not *all* publishers.
Just the big NY/corporate publishing houses.
Indies and small, medium publishers aren't hurting much if at all.
Most of those $200 million are coming straight off the BPHs.

That is why the AAP report isn't worse.
The BPHs are seeing ebook sales drops in a still-expanding market.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Fbone

You just confirmed my previous statement. People are doing other things besides reading.
.

People have always been doing other things than reading.
The first point was to try to blame the weather for the BPH ebook sales drop, but the weather is always an issue.
The second point was about people not spending on luxuries, except they still are.
Now you seem to think growth in other forms of entertainment can *only* come at ebook buying expense. If that is your persistent point I'll have to object.

The economy is growing, population is growing, ebook sales are growing.
it is *only* the Agency-priced BPH ebooks that are suffering.

When Shatzkin, who spent the better part of the last year attacking the Author Earnings reports, publicly admits (which takes courage for a consultant) that the reports are right and that Indie titles are in fact eating up big market share swaths *because of pricing* removes all doubt that the non-existent "leveling-off" of the "ebook fad" is strictly an artifact of BPH pricing. Their ebook sales are dropping--everybody else is rolling along.

And the big change behind it all is the higher prices.

Shatzkin himself points out that the only reason their ebook sales didn't drop during the conspiracy is because the price hikes came at a time when the size of the market exploded; there was no shortage of "newbies" who didn't realize the books were overpriced. But as time rolled on, those newbies learned.

They, and others, grew to understand that the lower-priced Indie titles weren't uniformly bad tradpub rejects but rather that many of them were republished ex-tradpub titles, new projects from established authors, or projects from good new authors who simply weren't bothering to submit to tradpub rules and contracts.

The ironic thing here is that during the conspiracy, when Apple laid down the terms to the BPHs, the publishers wanted to go even highe and Apple served as a limiter. This time, without a central coordinator they are free to go higher and they *are* going higher under the assumption that people who want their books will pay any price to get them.

The assumption is being proved false.
Note that, while Amazon is heavily discounting the pbooks, their hardcover sales are *also* down. High ebook prices aren't driving *all* would-be buyers to print. Some (a lot) are just going elsewhere. Libraries, used books, other titles...

The BPHs are going to have to choose between staying the course and shedding even more market share and clout or buying that share back at their own expense (and their authors).

Either way, it's going to cost them.
They "won" their war with Amazon to restore Agency but the price of that victory is looking unsustainable. Very Pyrrhic.

[theducks]

Price is almost everything to many of us.

When Baen changed pricing on e-books to permit distribution through other channels, it hit hard on my impulse buys.

To those of us in the USA:
Have you noticed your snail mailbox is mostly empty?
The price of stamps is one factor. (printing costs is another). Bulk mail Advertising has cut waaaay back.

Volume is falling: The Post Offices solution to declining volume? Raise Postage rates (again).

When I was a child a first class stamp was 3 cents (Air Mail was more).
If you only look at the 'adjusted for inflation' numbers, the current rate looks great
The numbers leave out all the other (efficiency? We are talking USPS here ) progress in mail handling, the adjusted rates should have been lower.

Early color TV's were $600 (1956, unadjusted). Today you can get a 55inch HDTV for that amount. Progress:? Efficiency: yes

[conan50]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

If you have only so much money to spend on eBooks, that money will buy less and sales will drop. I also think more people are frequenting Overdrive and/or 3M where they can to get eBooks instead of buying.

I agree, Overdrive is awesome and I have been making more use of it lately.

[conan50]

Originally Posted by theducks

Price is almost everything to many of us.

When Baen changed pricing on e-books to permit distribution through other channels, it hit hard on my impulse buys.

To those of us in the USA:
Have you noticed your snail mailbox is mostly empty?
The price of stamps is one factor. (printing costs is another). Bulk mail Advertising has cut waaaay back.

Volume is falling: The Post Offices solution to declining volume? Raise Postage rates (again).

When I was a child a first class stamp was 3 cents (Air Mail was more).
If you only look at the 'adjusted for inflation' numbers, the current rate looks great
The numbers leave out all the other (efficiency? We are talking USPS here ) progress in mail handling, the adjusted rates should have been lower.

Early color TV's were $600 (1956, unadjusted). Today you can get a 55inch HDTV for that amount. Progress:? Efficiency: yes

Good points. I hadn't thought about the junk mail thing in awhile. We had to get a bigger mailbox a few years ago because of the junk mail. Now we get just a few pieces a week.
I think another issue with ebooks is the value proposition. If I spend $15-$20 on a hardcover book, even after I read it I have a nice book with a beautiful cover sitting on my shelf, and I can give it away, resale it, it is a multi-purpose device and something of an investment. I get absolutely none of that from a $15 ebook. That is why my price point is about $5.99 for a trad-pub ebook, or if a new release that I absolutely need right now, maybe $9.99. Amazon has known this about me and other readers of ebooks for years, they know my impulse buy is .99 - $2.99 which is why they really want Indie books priced at $2.99 and offer a better slice of the pie for authors at that price point.
Traditional publishers know how, sometimes, to turn out a readable book, and that is about it. They really don't get what I consider the value of their ebook to be.

[ZodWallop]

Originally Posted by theducks

To those of us in the USA:
Have you noticed your snail mailbox is mostly empty?
The price of stamps is one factor. (printing costs is another). Bulk mail Advertising has cut waaaay back.

Boy, I wish I had that 'problem'

[DiapDealer]

Man, I've always thought Shatzkin was a bought and paid-for mouthpiece for what tradpub was doing right. Nice to see he can own up to being wrong. As can I. I had him pegged as someone who wouldn't let facts get in the way of his opinions. Clearly I was wrong. Good on him--shame on me.

Wonder what would Stonetools think of Shatzkin's about-face?

[Barcey]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

Man, I've always thought Shatzkin was a bought and paid-for mouthpiece for what tradpub was doing right. Nice to see he can own up to being wrong. As can I. I had him pegged as someone who wouldn't let facts get in the way of his opinions. Clearly I was wrong. Good on him--shame on me.

Wonder what would Stonetools think of Shatzkin's about-face?

I've never thought of him as bought and paid for, he just knows where his money comes from. In this case I think it's a simple case that the traditional publishers have realized the mistake and he caught wind of it. He's good at telling them things they want to hear or are ready to hear. He's just not going to give them radical ideas that they don't want to hear, even if it's the truth.

[Cinisajoy]

Well now I have to admit my ebook "buying" is down from last year. It is really down from 2 years ago.
Note: this is not due to any economic change but from the length of my TBR.

[Fbone]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

People have always been doing other things than reading.
The first point was to try to blame the weather for the BPH ebook sales drop, but the weather is always an issue.
The second point was about people not spending on luxuries, except they still are.
Now you seem to think growth in other forms of entertainment can *only* come at ebook buying expense. If that is your persistent point I'll have to object.

The economy is growing, population is growing, ebook sales are growing.
it is *only* the Agency-priced BPH ebooks that are suffering.

[snip]

Please, don't put words in my mouth. Thank you. This is what I said.

Reports have also said people are reading (and buying) less than ever before. There are probably multiple reasons. Time constraints, income loss, disasters, movies, gaming, texting, disinterest and death of the older reading generation.

Not just entertainment. Although, it does stand to reason the more hours spent viewing tv and movies is less time reading. The more hours people work is less time reading, etc. There is only 24 hrs in one day.

I don't care for absolutes without specific data which we lack.
We know that ebooks sales from 1200 publishers are down 9.3%. Most of the 1200 are small/med indie presses not on Agency. Since the reported losses from the BPHs are less than 9.3 it means that the other pubs are having more significant revenue losses. We don't know the reasons.

Regarding the $200 million- that's 8 months of 50 Shades' sales. We didn't have one of those recently. Speaking of which has PRH released any numbers? The have Grey and the latest Dr Seuss. Last year PRH had major sales increases and profits to the point where all US employees received a bonus. The year end report said they sold 100 million digital books in 2014. I think they're fine.

I agree with those that said Overdrive/library is having an effect. The paperback buyers are switching to low cost ebooks, maybe KU. Price reductions from the BPH. The #1 bestseller is a Penguin book for $6.99. Perhaps, that is the sweet spot and they will experiment with that. Plus, all the factors I previously stated.

Personally, I am reading and buying less than previous years, 41 books down to 25. I now spend more on movies and tv shows than ebooks. I guess I'm contributing to ebook losses but adding to Netflix's record revenue/profits.

[rkomar]

I'm the kind of person who buys a book if the price is right and if I feel it is something I'd like to read someday. It often takes me years to get to such books. If the price is high, though, I won't buy just for my TBR pile. I remember reading somewhere that a big chunk of books sold don't get read, that they are bought by people who like to shop more than they like to read. Raise the price high enough, and you lose those sales. I think this is a different effect than just drifting away from reading in general.