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Old 01-30-2013, 10:58 AM   #1
Prestidigitweeze
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10 Reasons Not to Buy Apple Stock Right Now

Given the Death Race schwantz measuring usually encountered in an Apple discussion on MR, I felt this article might be of interest because, though discouraging, it's by someone who's made his living using Apple computers for the past twenty years. Lately, he's been asking acquaintances on Facebook how they feel about the current line of ThinkPads.

10 Reasons Why Now Is Not A Good Time To Buy Apple Stock

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Old 01-30-2013, 11:16 AM   #2
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Reason 1: As You May Have Heard, Steve Jobs Passed Away
Until Apple gives us a reason to think otherwise, it could be equally true that Steve Jobs held back some innovative products whilst he was in control.

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Reason 2: Apple Is No Longer Innovating
They're milking their current product line with incremental improvements, but I don't think they'll stop innovating. It just takes time and not every innovation will end up on general sale or be large enough for people to point at and say wow. Unless you're into video editing software you won't consider the latest final cut release as innovative (the major release, not the patches/updates that fixed the flood of complaints people had).

Innovation is in the eye of the beholder and goes beyond phones/tablets.

That said, as far as shares are concerned, it's a question of which segment of apple generates the highest revenue, if they stop innovating in that segment and growth drops, then I agree shares will likely take a hit.

People just (incorrectly imo) raised their expectations as to the rate innovation should occur. Whether consumers will like their innovations is a totally different matter.

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Reason 3: Apple Now Has Real Smartphone Competition
I really like the iPhone, but totally agree with this point. Whether WP8 is included in that I don't know, I didn't like WP7 during the few months I had a lumia 800, in fact I gave it away and went back to my 3gs, but some of the android based phones are more and more appealing.

The competition still has a lot of ground to make up though. Especially in the app store market, despite other competitors having greater user bases, iOS is still ahead in terms of developer revenue, coupled with the ease of developing for iOS that's keeping it a very attractive platform for developers.

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Reason 4: Trees Don't Grow All The Way To The Sky
That's what will likely start a stock fall, Apple will make even more money than previous years but not with the same increase in growth and the bailing may begin.

5/6/7/8 no real comment on.

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Reason 9: The Market Was Going Up While Apple Was Going Down
Isn't two days of last week a poor data sample? How many times in the last year or two has the market gone up and apple stock gone up or down?

My reason for not buying apple stock is that I can't see a sufficient continued growth that would provide a sizeable return unless you invested heavily and at the current share price that would mean a significant investment and associated risk. For long term investments I would assume there's a number of more attractive companies to spread your portfolio across.

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Reason 10: Conspiracy Theory Time
I'm sure plenty of people try to manipulate the market both legally and illegally. But there's plenty of other reasons to buy or not buy apple stock to make this a none issue. Then again, i love conspiracy theories even though I disagree with most of them, so I'm glad it's mentioned

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Old 01-30-2013, 11:25 AM   #3
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Thanks for the link! Those concerns are fairly well-reasoned.
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Old 01-30-2013, 11:34 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by JoeD View Post
Until Apple gives us a reason to think otherwise, it could be equally true that Steve Jobs held back some innovative products whilst he was in control.
Perhaps, but I doubt they'd be withheld for over a year in a world in which old tech can be a matter of months or even days.

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They're milking their current product line with incremental improvements, but I don't think they'll stop innovating.
I don't think Mr. Meisler is saying the innovation will necessarily stop altogether. He's saying there hasn't been much evidence of it lately, and that firing Forstall wasn't the best way to cultivate it. Apple can't rely on Jonathan Ive's luscious minimalism any more to sell everything they make.

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My reason for not buying apple stock is that I can't see a sufficient continued growth that would provide a sizable return unless you invested heavily and at the current share price that would mean a significant investment and associated risk.
I tend to agree.

One thing I'm very happy about is Apple's expansion of their music division. They've been acquiring some rather interesting companies of late where Logic is concerned, and their discontinuation of discreet mastering and soundtrack software suggests total integration in Logic 10.

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Originally Posted by Penforhire View Post
Thanks for the link! Those concerns are fairly well-reasoned.
Mother of Scrod, people are being reasonable about Apple stock of late. It's as if the acknowledged fall has temporarily appeased the company's less rational foes and tempered its most abrasive loyalists.

Here's hoping that more of the same isn't too much to hope for.

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Old 02-04-2013, 10:45 AM   #5
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Apple not go bankrupt
but many people lose much money on stock

my estimate under 300 end of year 2013
200 to 250 end of 2014

unless a stampede some big problem
then quicker

big holders will try to ease drift down

same thing as done with silver and other minerals and metals
we see it all time

very old tactic
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Old 02-04-2013, 11:33 AM   #6
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I visited my local shopping center Saturday night. The mall includes an Apple Store and a Microsoft Store. The Apple Store opened a decade ago. It's very sterile -- white everything with Apple products on tables and Geniuses scattered about. There was not a single customer in the store. I chatted with the Genius by the entrance who engaged me on the way past. He said business was good, but it was a slow night. I was not surprised that a computer store was not humming on a Saturday night in February.

As I continued towards the Food Court, I could hear loud music. It was coming from the Microsoft Store. The MS Store is similar to the Apple Store in size and color except that there is an Xbox room in the back, a customer service area in front of that and huge monitors completely covering the perimeter. And it was full of people. Kids in the Xbox room were playing hockey on a huge screen. Dozens of people were playing with laptops and tablets. There were a half dozen people at the service area. One was telling anyone who would listen how bad the Geeks at Best Buy are.

The Microsoft Store was pretty vibrant for a Saturday night in February.

This is, of course, completely anecdotal -- two stores in one mall in one city on one night -- but I think it speaks to the concern that Apple needs to innovate.
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Old 02-04-2013, 11:48 AM   #7
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@wizwor: You don't really expect Apple to let you play for free? Or let you listen to music for free without having you buy a new iPod first?

Also remember, Win8 is brand new. Maybe under the hood it is nothing new, but the GUI is completely redone. New things in iOS? Nah, it is so perfect, why confuse anybody with something innovative. For all we know the changes in a new iOS could be revolutionary and all, and nothing at all new in Win8, BUT with brand new GUI Win8 is the next best thing, while iOS is just same old, same old, play it safe.
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Old 02-04-2013, 12:05 PM   #8
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They used to. The Apple Store is near where Santa sets up each year, so I have spent some time in there. I'll concede that Santa may have been the draw (that's why I was there), but there were people in the store. They had low tables so kids could play games on the Apple computers. It's just different now at the Apple Store.
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Old 02-04-2013, 01:56 PM   #9
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Honestly, I am surprised that Apple isn't trying a little harder to be nicer.

Maybe they will sell an Nice Apple App. That could help.
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Old 02-04-2013, 03:47 PM   #10
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...This is, of course, completely anecdotal -- two stores in one mall in one city on one night -- but I think it speaks to the concern that Apple needs to innovate.
I would say it only shows how people see what they want or need to see.

The first thing I thought after reading your post was 'Who the hell goes to the mall on a Saturday night?' (Not directing this ? at you personally, just in general.) Tweens and teens too young to drive, the poor parents of same, and people out for some free entertainment, such as people watching? Certainly not the younger, social (probably what most around here would call 'hip'), and creative types who have always been pegged as the core Apple customer (happy accident, not intended).

Its also worth mentioning (to me, anyway) that with all the different activities you noticed at the Windows shop you never mentioned anyone actually buying anything.
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Old 02-04-2013, 03:50 PM   #11
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...Maybe they will sell an Nice Apple App. That could help.
Only on the Google platform, no need to preach to those of us in the choir.
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Old 02-04-2013, 04:27 PM   #12
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The first thing I thought after reading your post was 'Who the hell goes to the mall on a Saturday night?' (Not directing this ? at you personally, just in general.) Tweens and teens too young to drive, the poor parents of same, and people out for some free entertainment, such as people watching? Certainly not the younger, social (probably what most around here would call 'hip'), and creative types who have always been pegged as the core Apple customer (happy accident, not intended).

Its also worth mentioning (to me, anyway) that with all the different activities you noticed at the Windows shop you never mentioned anyone actually buying anything.
It's just the idea that with an Apple Store and a Microsoft Store under the same roof, people chose to be at the Microsoft Store.

I was surprised to find people at either store in February -- not Christmas, not back to school -- but I would have expected to see people at the Apple Store with the launch of the 128g Retina iPad only days away.

I was at the customer service desk which is where people pay for stuff and I did have to wait for assistance. The BB-hater was getting a Dell laptop serviced and someone was buying something -- I don't know what because it was in a box I did not recognize.

I wasn't there to buy. I was shopping. Happened to be in the mall for another reason and stopped in with my youngest to put hands on hardware. I would speculate most of the people in the store were there for the same reason. That translates into interest and, usually, eventually, to sales. If you want to touch a hundred laptops, the Microsoft Store is the only place to do it. Ditto on the tabs.

So, maybe people will not wait in line for a 128g Retina iPad?
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The new 128GB versions of the fourth generation iPad will be available starting Tuesday, February 5, in black or white, for a suggested retail price of $799 (US) for the iPad with Wi-Fi model and $929 (US) for the iPad with Wi-Fi + Cellular model. All versions of the 128GB iPad will be sold through the Apple Online Store (www.apple.com), Apple retail stores and select Apple Authorized Resellers.
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Old 02-04-2013, 04:42 PM   #13
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Ironically, I just got an email inviting me to preview at my local Microsoft Store on 2/9/13. I might.
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Old 02-04-2013, 07:30 PM   #14
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Ironically, I just got an email inviting me to preview at my local Microsoft Store on 2/9/13. I might.
Wonder what that is going to be like. Here is the new iPad 128, now here next to it try out this Win8 tab for half the price and expandable memory.
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Old 02-04-2013, 08:00 PM   #15
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Wonder what that is going to be like. Here is the new iPad 128, now here next to it try out this Win8 tab for half the price and expandable memory.
It's the Surface Pro, so I suspect they will be comparing it to laptops, ultralights, and tabs. In my experience, Microsoft has ignored Apple.
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