Register Guidelines E-Books Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Go Back   MobileRead Forums > E-Book General > News

Notices

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 01-17-2013, 04:08 PM   #106
PatNY
Zennist
PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
PatNY's Avatar
 
Posts: 927
Karma: 46026034
Join Date: Jul 2010
Device: iPod Touch, Sony PRS-350, Nook HD+ & HD
Quote:
Originally Posted by murraypaul View Post
That just isn't what he said.
If he had meant to say that, why didn't he just say it?
You seem happy to place 100% belief in his figures, while disregarding his actual words.
Yes, essentially that is what he is saying.

Where else could the sources have gotten the 19 million figure but from an actual Apple order?

Figures are precise. Words often are not.


Quote:
Bangs head on wall.
It isn't a fact, it is a claim.
The cut their orders because demand is lower.
How do we know demand is lower? Because they cut their orders.
The statement about cutting the order and the numbers given are factual assertions. You can believe them or not.

The reason for doing the cuts is not a factual assertion, and I never presented it as such. I said "seems to indicate" ... what about that phrase is confusing to you?

And, as far as I recall, none of the reports are making factual assertions as to the reasons for the cuts. They are speculating. The factual assertions are in regard to the cuts and, in one report, the specific amounts.


Quote:
The 11-14 million figure is much more consistent with previous quarters.
Uh, no. You would have to know Apples' precise ordering patterns in order to make such a conclusion. Do they tend to order more up front in the quarter? Do they space it out evenly? Do they make 2 or 3 or 4 screen orders per quarter? Maybe every three weeks? Unless you know these things, you cannot say which figure is more consistent with previous quarters.

Quote:
19 million is almost twice the average monthly figure for last year.
Perhaps, but "average" figures in this instance are irrelevant because demand fluctuates throughout the year, month to month So component orders would likely fluctuate as well from order to order. Also, do they really order only enough for one month? Or do they order twice a quarter? Every three weeks? None of us knows this, and unless you know their exact ordering patterns, you really can't say with any certainty whether a 19 million order for January is unusually large for them or not.

Quote:
If anyone at Apple though that they would sell 65 million iPhones in Q2 then either:
a) They were smoking crack, or
b) The numbers they are about to release for Q1 must be off the charts.
I don't think either of those is particularly likely.
My guess is that when the Q2 figures are finally released, they will be less than the 3*14 = 42 million upper end of the 'post-cut' estimate.
C'mon, murray. We already went over the 65 million figure. Do you want me to repeat my answer?


Quote:
No, you did order 20 pies. You phone him, and ordered them.
If you had planned to, but never actually phoned him, then you would have expected to order 20 pies, but have not actually ordered them.
Yes, I did order 20 pies (initially). Yay, we agree on something!

But later I cut that back to 10. Now read what the baker said about my order. It is exactly analogous to this situation and how the NY Times reporter phrased the 19 million Apple screen order in his article. I'm going to assume that because you said nothing specifically about the baker's statement, it didn't jump out at you as sounding wrong or funny. It sounded perfectly fine to you too within that sequence of events. Which was my whole point about the pie analogy,

Quote:
Really? How many of them are you saying have independently verified it?
The Wall St. Journal/Nikkei story broke first. The NY Times independently verified that information through NPD DisplaySearch, a research firm that follows the display market.

Not sure if "verified" is the correct word, though. Maybe "confirmed" is a better one. But the point is, it wasn't just everyone repeating one story. There were two stories using independent sources to report on something.

--Pat

Last edited by PatNY; 01-17-2013 at 04:18 PM.
PatNY is offline  
Old 01-17-2013, 04:46 PM   #107
murraypaul
Interested Bystander
murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
Posts: 3,224
Karma: 10210627
Join Date: Jun 2008
Device: Sony PRS505, Nook Color(CM7), iPad3
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatNY View Post
Where else could the sources have gotten the 19 million figure but from an actual Apple order?
You are assuming that the figure is correct, therefore it must have come from someone who knew about it.
We don't know that it is correct.
It could be just made up.
It could be someone misunderstanding what they have overheard.
It could be that they were originally going to order a large amount in January and less in February and March (as you suggested in your post), and then decided to level it out across all three, but only the January decrease is being reported, not the February and March increases.
It could be that if Apple place concrete orders for X, they have the right to reserve Y more units of production at no up front cost, and what is being reported as 'ordered' is X+Y, not X.
We just don't know. That has been my point the whole time.
There are no facts here, only assertions.

Quote:
The statement about cutting the order and the numbers given are factual assertions. You can believe them or not.
Which is not the same as a fact.
That is the point. It is not a fact that they have cut orders, it is an assertion that they have cut orders.

Quote:
The reason for doing the cuts is not a factual assertion, and I never presented it as such. I said "seems to indicate" ... what about that phrase is confusing to you?
You said: "But the very fact that they cut the number previously ordered"

It isn't a fact. It is an assertion, as you have just said.

Quote:
The Wall St. Journal/Nikkei story broke first. The NY Times independently verified that information through NPD DisplaySearch, a research firm that follows the display market.

Not sure if "verified" is the correct word, though. Maybe "confirmed" is a better one. But the point is, it wasn't just everyone repeating one story. There were two stories using independent sources to report on something.
So two.
That isn't quite: "independently verified and repeated by almost all major news outlets. " is it?
And the two stories have different numbers, one of which (65 million), you don't believe either.

This is getting much more nitpicky that it would ever be in real life, and I doubt either of us care about it as much as it must seem to anyone following these posts, we would probably both have gotten bored and gone off to get something to eat by now
I'm fundamentally mistrustful and cynical of anonymous sources and analyst reports, so I prefer to just ignore them until some real news is available.
I suspect neither of us are going to convince the other, and we are just going to go in circles from here on. Over to you for a last word.
murraypaul is offline  
Old 01-17-2013, 06:06 PM   #108
Sil_liS
Wizard
Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
Posts: 4,889
Karma: 33602910
Join Date: Oct 2010
Device: PocketBook 903 & 360+
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatNY View Post
Where else could the sources have gotten the 19 million figure but from an actual Apple order?
If the analyst would have access to Apple's orders, then he would have given an exact number for the current order, not a range between 11 and 14 million.
Sil_liS is offline  
Old 01-17-2013, 06:46 PM   #109
PatNY
Zennist
PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
PatNY's Avatar
 
Posts: 927
Karma: 46026034
Join Date: Jul 2010
Device: iPod Touch, Sony PRS-350, Nook HD+ & HD
Quote:
Originally Posted by murraypaul View Post
You are assuming that the figure is correct, therefore it must have come from someone who knew about it.
We don't know that it is correct.
It could be just made up.
It could be someone misunderstanding what they have overheard.
It could be that they were originally going to order a large amount in January and less in February and March (as you suggested in your post), and then decided to level it out across all three, but only the January decrease is being reported, not the February and March increases.
It could be that if Apple place concrete orders for X, they have the right to reserve Y more units of production at no up front cost, and what is being reported as 'ordered' is X+Y, not X.
We just don't know. That has been my point the whole time.
There are no facts here, only assertions.
Yes, I assume the numbers are correct or fairly close to the actual numbers (ie, the actual original orders could really be for 17.8 million or 21.4 million, for example, and not 19 million ... but that's close enough).

And, yes, we don't really know if it is correct. But isn't that the case for a great number of things we hear and read about?

I take everything at face value if it's widely reported by multiple established and reliable media outlets and unless there is something inherently fishy about the story or someone reputable has challenged that information. I don't simply discount things because I don't like the implications of what the story might mean -- which seems to be the case with you and this story.

If you were to come across reports in the WSJ and the NYTs exactly similar to these, but they instead say Apple doubled original orders of LCD screens, and the information is coming from multiple supply chain sources, are you really going to question the validity of the reports the way you are doing here? Are you going to dissect every phrase by the reporter and look for areas to nitpick? Somehow I don't think you would.

You can't have it both ways. You can't pick and choose the information to believe according to how it fits your point of view.

As for something being made up or a lie, well unless you point to a logical explanation why that would be so, then in the absence of any sound reasoning, I would say that's unlikely. And if it were a pure lie -- and far off the mark -- then Apple likely would have corrected the misinformation by now.


Quote:
Which is not the same as a fact.
That is the point. It is not a fact that they have cut orders, it is an assertion that they have cut orders.
Correct, but, again, I am going to assume as fact any factual assertion that is widely reported in multiple established and reliable news outlets, and which goes essentially unchallenged. For example, if every media outlet is asserting that Samsung has plans already on the drawing board for a Note III, then I am going to take that as fact, even though Samsung has not made any such announcements


Quote:
You said: "But the very fact that they cut the number previously ordered" ... It isn't a fact. It is an assertion, as you have just said.


Ok, let me correct myself then:

"But the information that they cut the number previously ordered seems to indicate that demand may be lower than they expected."

Better?

Quote:
So two.
That isn't quite: "independently verified and repeated by almost all major news outlets. " is it?
And the two stories have different numbers, one of which (65 million), you don't believe either.
Yes, two. And two is more than you get with many stories.

And I never meant that almost all major outlets independently verified the story. That almost never happens with most news stories. It's an somewhat illogical interpretation. But I can understand the source of your confusion.

This is my original statement:

"No more blind faith than anyone else who takes at face value a story that has been independently verified and repeated by almost all major news outlets."


To be clearer, I should have placed the modifier differently:

"No more blind faith than anyone else who takes at face value a story that has been repeated by almost all major news outlets and independently verified."

As for the 65 million number, no, it's not that I don't believe it. I believe in that case the number, which appears in only one report, was used in a vague manner by the writer, so it remains unclear what he was talking about. It can be interpreted various ways. If he intended it to mean ALL screen orders in a quarter, then that number is very believable.

Quote:
This is getting much more nitpicky that it would ever be in real life, and I doubt either of us care about it as much as it must seem to anyone following these posts, we would probably both have gotten bored and gone off to get something to eat by now
You're the one doing the nitpicking. But that's ok, I rather enjoy the discussion.

Quote:
I'm fundamentally mistrustful and cynical of anonymous sources and analyst reports, so I prefer to just ignore them until some real news is available.
Unless it's a report favorable to Apple, right? Then I suppose you would take it at face value, run it up a flagpole and salute it!

If you say no, then I gather when I read this forum in the future I will never come across a post of yours citing a report that is based on anonymous sources, correct?

As I said above, I will take at face value any report which meets the specified criteria. Whether I like the implications or not.


--Pat
PatNY is offline  
Old 01-17-2013, 06:53 PM   #110
PatNY
Zennist
PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
PatNY's Avatar
 
Posts: 927
Karma: 46026034
Join Date: Jul 2010
Device: iPod Touch, Sony PRS-350, Nook HD+ & HD
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sil_liS View Post
If the analyst would have access to Apple's orders, then he would have given an exact number for the current order, not a range between 11 and 14 million.
As has been mentioned various times, the story involves multiple suppliers. It's likely they have hard numbers from some of the suppliers but not from all. The information from one supplier as to the amount of cuts could be either tentative or unclear. Hence the range.

--Pat
PatNY is offline  
Old 01-17-2013, 10:20 PM   #111
Dopedangel
Wizard
Dopedangel ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Dopedangel ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Dopedangel ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Dopedangel ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Dopedangel ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Dopedangel ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Dopedangel ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Dopedangel ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Dopedangel ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Dopedangel ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Dopedangel ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
Dopedangel's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,111
Karma: 8671315
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Singapore
Device: Coolreader(Nexus 5)\Coolreader(Nook Touch)
I think most people don't understand is that apple plays and manages the media and us thru these negative stories. A month a go lets say apple sales were expected to be 100 now they got this story released that apple cut its orders in half. So now people will bring down their expectations to about 50. Then when Apple releases it numbers next week the actual sales will be around 70-80 so instead of apple performing below expectation every news paper will be like apple blew thru its expected figures and they will make a huge deal about it.
But in reality those same figures a month ago would have had a negative effect people perception on apple.
Dopedangel is offline  
Old 01-17-2013, 11:07 PM   #112
elcreative
Wizard
elcreative ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.elcreative ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.elcreative ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.elcreative ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.elcreative ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.elcreative ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.elcreative ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.elcreative ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.elcreative ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.elcreative ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.elcreative ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
Posts: 2,884
Karma: 5875940
Join Date: Dec 2007
Device: PRS505, 600, 350, 650, Nexus 7, Note III, iPad 4 etc
Gotta love these anti-Apple threads... whatever comes up can get manipulated to their point of view... just like the conspiracy nuts... wonder who'll be next should they ever get their wishes met and Apple disappear... Good entertainment though even if short on actual discussion as opposed to dogma
elcreative is offline  
Old 01-18-2013, 04:36 AM   #113
Sil_liS
Wizard
Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
Posts: 4,889
Karma: 33602910
Join Date: Oct 2010
Device: PocketBook 903 & 360+
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatNY View Post
"No more blind faith than anyone else who takes at face value a story that has been repeated by almost all major news outlets and independently verified."
The fact that a story has been repeated doesn't mean anything other than: it is good gossip.

And the story hasn't been verified. You have anonymous sources telling Nikkei that Apple places orders for the whole quarter, and you have anonymous sources telling the analyst that Apple places orders for each month. The stories contradict each other.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PatNY View Post
As has been mentioned various times, the story involves multiple suppliers. It's likely they have hard numbers from some of the suppliers but not from all. The information from one supplier as to the amount of cuts could be either tentative or unclear. Hence the range.
Then there would have been a range instead of the 19 million number as well.


And back to why the rumors are negative. It is possible that Apple doesn't think that it can sell more than 11 million iPhone5s per month after the winter holidays: Apple is DOOMED!!!!!!!!
Sil_liS is offline  
Old 01-18-2013, 05:13 AM   #114
HansTWN
Wizard
HansTWN ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HansTWN ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HansTWN ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HansTWN ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HansTWN ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HansTWN ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HansTWN ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HansTWN ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HansTWN ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HansTWN ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HansTWN ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
Posts: 4,540
Karma: 264065402
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Taiwan
Device: HP Touchpad, Sony Duo 13, Lumia 920, Kobo Aura HD
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sil_liS View Post
It is possible that Apple doesn't think that it can sell more than 11 million iPhone5s per month after the winter holidays: Apple is DOOMED!!!!!!!!
Why do people keep bringing this up? Nobody is entertaining such a silly notion, nobody has even mentioned it. The point is that Apple's days at the top of the food chain are numbered (or perhaps already a thing of the past as we write this) --- not that they are finished.

That is what usually happens when you are on top, you have no way to go but down.
HansTWN is offline  
Old 01-18-2013, 05:23 AM   #115
Sil_liS
Wizard
Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Sil_liS ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
Posts: 4,889
Karma: 33602910
Join Date: Oct 2010
Device: PocketBook 903 & 360+
Quote:
Originally Posted by HansTWN View Post
Why do people keep bringing this up? Nobody is entertaining such a silly notion, nobody has even mentioned it. The point is that Apple's days at the top of the food chain are numbered (or perhaps already a thing of the past as we write this) --- not that they are finished.

That is what usually happens when you are on top, you have no way to go but down.
But when it comes to phones Apple wasn't at the top of the market share, and is still at the top of profit margin. What changed with these rumors?
Sil_liS is offline  
Old 01-18-2013, 05:40 AM   #116
PatNY
Zennist
PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
PatNY's Avatar
 
Posts: 927
Karma: 46026034
Join Date: Jul 2010
Device: iPod Touch, Sony PRS-350, Nook HD+ & HD
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sil_liS View Post
The fact that a story has been repeated doesn't mean anything other than: it is good gossip.
I can't disagree more. It all depends on who repeats it. If it's repeated solely by blogs, and commentators such as you and me on forums like this, sure, I'd say it's just gossip. But if it's picked up by virtually every mainstream reputable media outlet that exists -- all while the story goes unchallenged -- and gets independently "confirmed," then it has a great deal of credibility.

Quote:
And the story hasn't been verified. You have anonymous sources telling Nikkei that Apple places orders for the whole quarter, and you have anonymous sources telling the analyst that Apple places orders for each month. The stories contradict each other.
As I said in my reply to murray a few posts earlier, perhaps "confirmed" is a better word. So, yes, this story has been independently confirmed by two major media outlets. The stories do not contradict each other -- or at least they are close enough in substance that they are consistent with each other, IMO. When the first story says "half" it is saying roughly 50%. Meanwhile the range for the cuts in the second story is up to 43%. Close enough, I think.

If you are referring to the 65 million number mentioned by Nikkei in one of the original reports, well that could be a result of sloppy reporting or simply an error. It doesn't mean that the meat of the story -- the cuts of roughly 50% -- is incorrect.

BTW, analysts have been reporting since December of component cuts by Apple. So this story isn't as new as the recent news would suggest. Maybe it was simply not picked up by major media outlets in the past OR the analysts' reports lacked the specificity that the recent news stories have.

Quote:
Then there would have been a range instead of the 19 million number as well.
Not necessarily. One of the sources for one of the 3 LCD suppliers could have been definite on the "original" order but less definite or specific as to the cuts. Hence the range just on the cuts.

--Pat
PatNY is offline  
Old 01-18-2013, 05:46 AM   #117
PatNY
Zennist
PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
PatNY's Avatar
 
Posts: 927
Karma: 46026034
Join Date: Jul 2010
Device: iPod Touch, Sony PRS-350, Nook HD+ & HD
Quote:
Originally Posted by HansTWN View Post
Why do people keep bringing this up? Nobody is entertaining such a silly notion, nobody has even mentioned it. The point is that Apple's days at the top of the food chain are numbered (or perhaps already a thing of the past as we write this) --- not that they are finished.

That is what usually happens when you are on top, you have no way to go but down.
Hans, I think when one side in a discussion feels the need to exaggerate the other side's stance (clearly what is happening here) then that is a sign of desperation! Much like ad hominem attacks.

--Pat
PatNY is offline  
Old 01-18-2013, 05:59 AM   #118
murraypaul
Interested Bystander
murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
Posts: 3,224
Karma: 10210627
Join Date: Jun 2008
Device: Sony PRS505, Nook Color(CM7), iPad3
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatNY View Post
I take everything at face value if it's widely reported by multiple established and reliable media outlets and unless there is something inherently fishy about the story or someone reputable has challenged that information. I don't simply discount things because I don't like the implications of what the story might mean -- which seems to be the case with you and this story.
I don't think that is a fair characterisation of my responses.
I do think there is something fishy about the story, as I have repeatedly said, I don't think the 'pre-cut' numbers make sense.
You might disagree, and that is perfectly reasonable, but at least accept that that is my position.
If the story had said that they had originally ordered ~40 million for the quarter, and then cut that back, that would be believable.
Apple's dominance of high-end smartphones will continue to reduce and reduce as Android increases, that is clear to everybody, it doesn't need rumours like this to show it.
I've already said that my guess is that their Q2 sales will be below the 14 million estimate, so exactly what implication is it that you think I don't like? I'm hardly bullish on the future of the iPhone.

Quote:
If you were to come across reports in the WSJ and the NYTs exactly similar to these, but they instead say Apple doubled original orders of LCD screens, and the information is coming from multiple supply chain sources, are you really going to question the validity of the reports the way you are doing here?
If the original numbers they were claiming have been doubled were far too low to be believable, yes. If the story said that Apple had originally ordered 17 million for Q2, then doubled it to 34 million, I would cal bullshit the same as I have done here, because 17 million is too low to start with.

Quote:
Unless it's a report favorable to Apple, right? Then I suppose you would take it at face value, run it up a flagpole and salute it!
No, I don't think I've ever started such a thread, or indeed any pro-Apple thread.

Last edited by murraypaul; 01-18-2013 at 06:14 AM.
murraypaul is offline  
Old 01-18-2013, 06:13 AM   #119
PatNY
Zennist
PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
PatNY's Avatar
 
Posts: 927
Karma: 46026034
Join Date: Jul 2010
Device: iPod Touch, Sony PRS-350, Nook HD+ & HD
Quote:
Originally Posted by murraypaul View Post
If the original numbers they were claiming have been doubled were far too low to be believable, yes. If the story said that Apple had originally ordered 17 million for Q2, then doubled it to 34 million, I would cal bullshit the same as I have done here, because 17 million is too low to start with.
But murray, as I said before, unless one knows precisely how Apple does its LCD orders (monthly, every 3 weeks, quarterly, every two weeks, or just as needed?) then it is almost impossible to know from these current reports whether the quantities mentioned are within normal quarterly ranges or not -- except in an instance where the number seems way too high (ie, 65 million).

So if you saw a report that simply said Apple doubled its initial order of 11 million LCD displays in January (not mentioning a quarter) -- and the source was anonymous in the supply chain -- would you pooh-pooh such a report as you are doing here?

Quote:
I don't think I've ever started such a thread, or indeed any pro-Apple thread.
Do you need to be a thread-starter to be a flag waver?

--Pat
PatNY is offline  
Old 01-18-2013, 06:22 AM   #120
murraypaul
Interested Bystander
murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.murraypaul ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
Posts: 3,224
Karma: 10210627
Join Date: Jun 2008
Device: Sony PRS505, Nook Color(CM7), iPad3
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatNY View Post
But murray, as I said before, unless one knows precisely how Apple does its LCD orders (monthly, every 3 weeks, quarterly, every two weeks, or just as needed?) then it is almost impossible to know from these current reports whether the quantities mentioned are within normal quarterly ranges or not -- except in an instance where the number seems way too high (ie, 65 million).
So the numbers are meaningless?
Either the numbers say that Apple originally ordered twice what seems to me to be a plausible sales estimate, in which case I don't believe them, or they say nothing at all, in which case what is the point of discussing them?

Quote:
So if you saw a report that simply said Apple doubled its initial order of 11 million LCD displays in January (not mentioning a quarter) -- and the source was anonymous in the supply chain -- would you pooh-pooh such a report as you are doing here?
If it were presented as 'evidence' that Apple's sales for the quarter were doing to be double expectations, yes. I think there is zero chance that Apple's sales will be double their previous years quarter.

Again, as I have said all along, my issues with the story is not that Apple will only be selling ~30 million iPhones, it is that they would ever have expected to sell double that.

Quote:
Do you need to be a thread-starter to be a flag waver?
I'm not a flag waver. I have Apple products, I have Android products, I have a BlackBerry phone. I've never owned an iPhone, and have no intention to.
I think Apple products are good for some people, and bad for others.
In the small tablet market, for example, the Nexus 7 would be a better choice than the iPad Mini for most consumers.
I don't feel that Apple's success or failure in any way impacts on my self-worth, and don't really understand the fan mentality that does approach things in such ways, whether in sports, politics, electronics or any other arena.
I have an iPod Touch and an iPad because at the time I bought them they were the best products on the market for my needs. I think that is still probably true of the iPod Touch. The iPad, I'm not sure, the new high-res Samsung would definitely be a strong competitor.
murraypaul is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Google halts new orders for 16GB Nexus 7, surprised by demand petermillard News 148 08-04-2012 07:04 PM
"Amazon: Kindle Demand Weakening? Pac Crest Cuts Views" scrapking Amazon Kindle 17 03-23-2012 10:54 PM
"Due to overwhelming demand, your order may be delayed up to 5 business days..." pokee Kobo Tablets 31 10-28-2011 01:30 PM
iPhone Apple: Statement on iPhone 4 Pre-Orders kjk Apple Devices 25 06-19-2010 12:16 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:35 AM.


MobileRead.com is a privately owned, operated and funded community.