Phablets are the future

[Crowl]

Originally Posted by PatNY

Really? Selling 10 million Galaxy Note II's in just a few months isn't impressive enough?

I think you might be combining a couple of announcements, I think they have announced their 10 millionth Galaxy Note sold overall and also sold 5 million of the Note 2.

What exactly do you mean by that (higher end components)?

It seems like there are few options if you want the other high specs such as a fast processor, a lot of memory or storage etc. without also going for a larger display too, so the market has not actually decided they want these big displays they get them whether they want to or not if they want high end specs in other areas.

[ApK]

Originally Posted by afv011

That's a moving goalpost. By your definition, 3 years ago 4" would have been a phablet; now 4.5"+ is the norm (most phones now come out at 4.7" and larger), and we already have phones in the 6.x" range.

Indeed it is, and that's OK. These predictions only need to serve for 2-3 model years at the outside, before the Next Big Thing comes along.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by ApK

I think "phablets" serve a niche market of folks who will always carry such a large device, but won't also carry a second much smaller device. Certainly not a game changer, as the report seems to suggest.

The sales figures for the Note, and especially the Note II, would disagree.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by Crowl

Here's hoping that this pointless race beyond about 5" on phones becomes a sizable niche rather than the only option because other than that size opening up the option of a 1080p display it just seems a waste and something in the 4.2-4.5" range that would have a 720p display while still being small enough to use comfortably one-handed by most people would seem like a better option to me.

I think we'll see mid-tier phones consolidating in the 4.0-4.8 range or thereabouts, with 720p screens, whereas high tier will use 4.8+ screens and a 1080 resolution.

[ApK]

Originally Posted by afv011

The sales figures for the Note, and especially the Note II, would disagree.

You are looking at numbers for what is essentially the only item in it's class. You need to compare it's sales to ALL 4.5" or less Smartphones for it to be a meaningful comparison of device classes.

In other words, I predict the NEXT phablet device won't sell nearly as well because most people who want a phablet already have a Note. :-)

[Crowl]

Originally Posted by afv011

The sales figures for the Note, and especially the Note II, would disagree.

Compare those sales figures to the amount of the GS3 that samsung are still shipping after several quarters though.

One thing to bear in mind as well, something could still be considered a niche in the smartphone market even if that niche is a sizable one consisting of millions of devices.

[Crowl]

Originally Posted by ApK

In other words, I predict the NEXT phablet device won't sell nearly as well because most people who want a phablet already have a Note. :-)

The problem with your prediction is that the next phablet from Samsung to compare like with like will probably be the GS4 creeping into that sort of size range and it will sell loads.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by ApK

You are looking at numbers for what is essentially the only item in it's class. You need to compare it's sales to ALL 4.5" or less Smartphones for it to be a meaningful comparison of device classes.

In other words, I predict the NEXT phablet device won't sell nearly as well because most people who want a phablet already have a Note. :-)

I'm not so sure. Every day I know of more and more people asking about the Note. It might still be a niche in comparison to the 4.x" phones, but the fact other companies are joining in with their own 5.x-6.x offerings means they expect this market segment to grow.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by ApK

But before it does, let's riff on it.

I want the Phab 4, with customizable Ringo tones. It never requires updates, you just Let It Be.

But as the user, you will be needing lots of Help!.

[PatNY]

Originally Posted by Crowl

I think you might be combining a couple of announcements, I think they have announced their 10 millionth Galaxy Note sold overall and also sold 5 million of the Note 2.

No, the article is talking about just the Note II. It's clear by their reference to a device that has just come to market "at the end of the year." And if you click the link in the article, the underlying article is even more specific.

It seems like there are few options if you want the other high specs such as a fast processor, a lot of memory or storage etc. without also going for a larger display too, so the market has not actually decided they want these big displays they get them whether they want to or not if they want high end specs in other areas.

Well that's not necessarily true. At least in terms of memory and storage. Some of the smaller screen phones have card slots, but some of the larger ones don't, for example. I also just don't believe the companies dictate to us what to buy. People vote with their wallets. They decide ultimately what wins out -- so long as there are multiple choice to begin with. And when it comes to mobile devices, there is plenty of choice. Especially in terms of devices under 6 inches. Much less so with 7-8" devices.

--Pat

[ApK]

Originally Posted by afv011

I'm not so sure. Every day I know of more and more people asking about the Note. It might still be a niche in comparison to the 4.x" phones, but the fact other companies are joining in with their own 5.x-6.x offerings means they expect this market segment to grow.

I have a Dr. Pepper that says they are wrong...you want a piece of that action?

(Grow? Sure. Grow to the levels of smaller, more handy phones, and larger, more usable tablets? Heck, I might even bet a whole six pack against that.)

[PatNY]

Originally Posted by ApK

I think it represents a device too big to be a good phone and too small to be a good tablet. If it does indeed show a high RATE of growth, it will only be because of novelty, so I don't think it will ever grow to the absolute popularity numbers that either smaller phones or larger tablets enjoy (until we have folding screens).

I'll bet you a drink. Meet you back here in 2014 and winner buys the Dr. Pepper.

ApK

The bet is on! And, of course, it's a Dr. Pepper!

But what exactly are we betting on in terms of size? IOW, are the Note III and iPhone 6 included, assuming the rumors are true?

--Pat

[ApK]

Originally Posted by PatNY

The bet is on! And, of course, it's a Dr. Pepper!

But what exactly are we betting on in terms of size? IOW, are the Note III and iPhone 6 included, assuming the rumors are true?

--Pat

I can't define phabet but I know it when I see it.

[PatNY]

Originally Posted by ApK

I can't define phabet but I know it when I see it.

Hah! You do like moving goalposts, don't you?

--Pat

[holymadness]

This is roughly what the mobile device market is going to look like next year:



If you plan to listen to investment advice from PatNY or Barron's "analysts," you may as well throw your money in the toilet. Unless, of course, the advice is so blatantly obvious ("smartphone and tablet sales will increase next year") as to be worthy of printing on the inside of a fortune cookie. Again, how people get paid for this and how people can take this industry seriously is beyond me.