How long will Apple and Google's Android last?

[Kumabjorn]

Originally Posted by afv011

According to this, they started first as a paper company and the rubber stuff came later.

I stand corrected, my recollection was that the paper mills were privately owned and the company wasn't created until the rubber industry began.

[leebase]

In the last nine months, Apples market cap grew by 1 Microsoft.

Post-Pc is smartphones and tablets. Smartphones outsell PC's already.

Apple sold more iPads, than HP sold PC's last quarter...less than two years after the iPad was launched.

Look at the trend lines.

Lee

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by leebase

In the last nine months, Apples market cap grew by 1 Microsoft.

Post-Pc is smartphones and tablets. Smartphones outsell PC's already.

Apple sold more iPads, than HP sold PC's last quarter...less than two years after the iPad was launched.

Look at the trend lines.

Lee

You are ignoring the elephant in the room.

I am looking at the trend. The last two versions of iDevices (ipad 3 and iphone 4s) were no design changes but just spec upgrades. For the iPhone that means no new design in over 2 years. So the real question will be: "how much of Apple's success was Steve Jobs' doing and how has he managed to pass on his skills inside the organization?"

Apple is well positioned, no doubt. But I have my doubts that they can execute as they have in the past. We will know soon enough, if Apple without Steve still has what it takes. Given the fact that (as many of them here consistently state) the Apple users don't really care about specs it will take new designs to move forward. And to grow as they have in the past few years, they would need a new product line.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by HansTWN

But I have my doubts that they can execute as they have in the past. We will know soon enough, if Apple without Steve still has what it takes.

I think we already have some hints; I doubt Steve would have approved of the iPad 3 being called "the new iPad". So when the iPad 4 comes out, we will have the "old new iPad", and the "newer iPad".

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by afv011

I think we already have some hints; I doubt Steve would have approved of the iPad 3 being called "the new iPad". So when the iPad 4 comes out, we will have the "old new iPad", and the "newer iPad".

The iPad 3 is not called "the new iPad." It's called "the iPad". Just like iPods were generally called iPods. And various Macbooks don't have numbers after them either.

I, personally, would rather that they had gone ahead and called it the iPad 3, which is what I call it. But not using numbers is Apple's usual practice, so I have no doubt that Steve would have approved this...in fact, I think he probably did approve it.

[tubemonkey]

Originally Posted by afv011

So when the iPad 4 comes out, we will have the "old new iPad", and the "newer iPad".

I like the way this is trending

• iPad
• iPad 2
• new iPad
• newer iPad
• newest iPad
• bodaciously new iPad
• bodaciously newer iPad
• bodaciously newest iPad
• ..........

[afv011]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

But not using numbers is Apple's usual practice, so I have no doubt that Steve would have approved this...in fact, I think he probably did approve it.

iPhone, iPhone2, iPhone3G, iPhone3GS, iPhone4, iPhone4S.

[JD Gumby]

Originally Posted by leebase

Apple sold more iPads, than HP sold PC's last quarter...less than two years after the iPad was launched.

Look at the trend lines.

Of course it's going to look bad if you single out a single company out of the hundreds that put together and sell Windows-based computers. (as for the smartphone issue, that is only because the telcos *heavily* subsidize the initial cost - much easier for people to pay $40 a month per person for the next 3 years when they don't have that initial $300-500 cost per person)

[pl001]

ScientificBob brings up some good and interesting points.

However I have been seriously considering an Asus Transformer Prime and a network attached hard drive as a PC replacement. For some people such a setup would probably meet all their personal computing needs today. For me it's not quite there yet, but it's very close.

So like many others I continue to wait to see what happens with Windows 8. If done correctly, Windows 8 with Asus Transformer-type hardware has the potential to dominate the market. But I won't be at all surprised if there is an Apple or Android device released around the same time that has the capability of meeting the needs of 90+% of home pc users, or if Microsoft can't deliver a well executed device. I think you overestimate what most people need in a home computer.

[taosaur]

A lot of the "Post PC world!" chatter misses the point that computers for a lot of people are substantially more durable goods than phones or tablets, and have been at something of a plateau of development for about five years now. People aren't buying a lot of computers because their 2-5 year old machines still work just fine. Mobile tech, otoh, still makes significant strides year by year, often gets rougher use (being mobile), and is a status symbol, all of which adds up to much more frequent purchases.

[murraypaul]

Originally Posted by afv011

iPhone, iPhone2, iPhone3G, iPhone3GS, iPhone4, iPhone4S.

iPod Touch, iPod Touch, iPod Touch, iPod Touch. (up to 4th gen currently)
iPod Nano, iPod Nano, iPod Nano, iPod Nano, iPod Nano, iPod Nano, iPod Nano. (up to 7th gen currently)
You get the idea.
Just differentiated by generation numbers, which are not used by Apple in the store.
The iPhone, and the iPad 2, are the odd ones out.

[ilovejedd]

Originally Posted by afv011

iPhone, iPhone2, iPhone3G, iPhone3GS, iPhone4, iPhone4S.

The iPhone is the exception rather than the norm.

[ilovejedd]

Originally Posted by taosaur

A lot of the "Post PC world!" chatter misses the point that computers for a lot of people are substantially more durable goods than phones or tablets, and have been at something of a plateau of development for about five years now. People aren't buying a lot of computers because their 2-5 year old machines still work just fine. Mobile tech, otoh, still makes significant strides year by year, often gets rougher use (being mobile), and is a status symbol, all of which adds up to much more frequent purchases.

So true. A lot of people I know use 10-year old computers. Apart from the hard drives, the rest of the parts are quite durable and most people only replace their computers when they break or are just too slow to use anymore.

For cellphones, while there are undoubtedly folks who buy the latest model (well, the iPhone mostly) when it comes out, I reckon folks who just use their phones for the basics (talk and text), the only time they switch phones is when the battery is no longer holding a charge.

[Kumabjorn]

Originally Posted by pl001

ScientificBob brings up some good and interesting points.

However I have been seriously considering an Asus Transformer Prime and a network attached hard drive as a PC replacement. For some people such a setup would probably meet all their personal computing needs today. For me it's not quite there yet, but it's very close.

I don't have the Prime, I have the original Transformer. It covers pretty much 90 % of my computing needs. However, it still doesn't work seamlessly with the Cloud, be it public or personal. There is still not an Office solution that is sufficient.
I miss a VGA connection, the screen is simply not large enough for extensive computing. It has a mini-HDMI but that would require a new monitor (which lots of people already might have), I would like it to work with some monitor that I already have that isn't being used. This would also require better graphic handling. So there are still some glitches that need to be ironed out before it can replace a regular computer. But I grant you, it is close, very close.

[teh603]

Originally Posted by HansTWN

You are ignoring the elephant in the room.

I am looking at the trend. The last two versions of iDevices (ipad 3 and iphone 4s) were no design changes but just spec upgrades. For the iPhone that means no new design in over 2 years. So the real question will be: "how much of Apple's success was Steve Jobs' doing and how has he managed to pass on his skills inside the organization?"

That's no elephant. That's how most computer companies work; keep the existing case designs as long as possible and just change out the innards to make a newer model. Apple did it with the original Mac thru the Mac plus (although the Plus had an extra hole for the SCSI port), the SE and SE/30, the Classic and Classic II, the six-slot Mac II line, the three-slot Mac II line, the three different styles of Tanzania-board PowerMac (tower, desktop, and all-in-one), many of the iMacs and all the Mac Mini line, and all that. In some cases, the only difference in models was the price and the sticker on the front.

Apple is well positioned, no doubt. But I have my doubts that they can execute as they have in the past. We will know soon enough, if Apple without Steve still has what it takes. Given the fact that (as many of them here consistently state) the Apple users don't really care about specs it will take new designs to move forward. And to grow as they have in the past few years, they would need a new product line.

I disagree; I think the iPad's design is a great study in minimalism. The only thing I'd add is an outbound USB port, but that's relatively minor. I don't see how a different design would add any new functionality to it.