How long will Apple and Google's Android last?

[SeaKing]

How long will Apple and Google's Android last in eReaders/Tablets, Phones, Computers. What will Microsoft do? (They also have the money and the income like Apple and are now paying for Apps in order to be able to compete in this next eReader/Tablet/Phone iteration.

Bye Bye BlackBerry. How Long Will Apple Last?
Adam Thierer, Contributor
Forbes 4/01/2012

“The violence with which new platforms have displaced incumbent mobile vendor fortunes continues to surprise,” says wireless industry analyst Horace Dediu. He notes that Nokia’s Symbian platform went from 47% share to 16% in three years, Microsoft’s phone platforms went from 12% to 1%, RIM’s went from 17% to 12%, and other platforms went from 21% to zero. Meanwhile, over a two year period, Google’s Android OS went from zero to 48% and Apple’s iOS went from 2% to 19%.

In a marketplace this dynamic it’s worth asking: How long will it be before Apple and Google’s Android meet a similar fate? That question sounds ludicrous now considering their respective fortunes and current co-Kings of the Hill status. But posing the same question about BlackBerry just a few years ago would have also evoked howls of laughter."
continued

http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamthie...ll-apple-last/

Palm, HP, RIM, etc. seem to be passing from the scene.
Who will be the next to fall?

[Canuck_in_Japan]

Probably never. All of those other companies fell because of Apple and Google. There's no one left to take them down. I'm sure Android and iOS will be dominating as long as Windows has.

[afv011]

I think this is turning more and more into a 2 horse race. The others, maybe with the exception of Microsoft, don't have a prayer to make a dent in the market. And even Microsoft may be coming too late to the party.

I think it will be very difficult to dislodge both Android and Apple from the top 2 positions. For one, Android has the advantage of being open source, and it is found in more and more markets (phones, tablets, eReaders, cars, GPS, and more to come, like house appliances), whereas Apple has the brand name, though I think it's starting to lose its shine.

Although the tablet market is still in it's infancy, I think it's too late for Microsoft, they may carve a niche for themselves in the corporate world (maybe taking RIM's market share), but I don't see them making it big in the consumer market. For other areas (eReaders, GPS, ...), Microsoft holds no advantages over Android.

[MV64]

Originally Posted by Canuck_in_Japan

Probably never. All of those other companies fell because of Apple and Google. There's no one left to take them down. I'm sure Android and iOS will be dominating as long as Windows has.

I wouldn't be so sure. Google came out of nowhere. The next big company could, too.

And honestly, I think Apple is headed for a great big fall in the next 10-15 years.

[hidari]

I hope that Windows 8 tablets do OK at least....having more major competition will at least create an Oligarchy instead of the Duopoly of the Tablet industry that presently exists.... will be better for said companies and consumers in the long run...

[snarkophilus]

Also remember that Palm was the dominant player in the PDA market for a decade and then got it wrong when smartphones came along. Microsoft keep trying but haven't yet succeeded, but their next attempt may just be "the one". I think it would be a brave person to suggest that Google and Apple will remain the only two main players.

Cheers,
Simon.

[tubemonkey]

Windows already had their run in the mobile market. Anymore, they're a bit player at best.

[Andrew H.]

I think it's impossible to predict what will happen in the tech world, much less when. But I don't think that it will be any secret when change happens. When the first Palm Pilot came out, there was massive coverage of the device in all media because everyone recognized that it had changed the landscape.

The same is true when the iPhone came out - there was a lot of coverage of the new, fairly expensive phone. A lot of people liked it. And a lot of people didn't think it would succeed, often because they didn't believe that people would either pay for the phone or pay for the more expensive data plans. Similarly, there were still a lot of people who insisted that users...later amended to business users...wouldn't use a phone that didn't have a keyboard.

But regardless of whether people thought it would succeed or not, everyone recognized it as a challenge to the status quo. And I think that will also be the case with the next paradigm, too - because it will be so different from what came before, everyone will talk about it. Including people who don't think that the next development - which may be a slug that you put in your ear and that crawls to your brain and acts as a phone that you can access with your thoughts - will be better than touchscreen phones.

The trick for Apple and Google is to be able to recognize the next disruptive technology and jump on it before upstart companies can. Even if by doing that you are somehow temporarily tramping on your existing business model. (I.e., it would have been easy for Apple to decide against producing a phone because it would eat into their iPod business (which it has), or to avoid producing a tablet because it would eat into their laptop market (which it probably also has, to a lesser degree.)

But that's easier said that done, as the companies will need to know when to jump on the BrainSlug(tm) Phone, but will also need to know not to jump on the hundred other technologies that seem like they might be disruptive but will ultimately turn out to be a flash in the pan. (The SmellPhone...)

[VaporPunk]

Originally Posted by afv011

I think this is turning more and more into a 2 horse race. The others, maybe with the exception of Microsoft, don't have a prayer to make a dent in the market. And even Microsoft may be coming too late to the party.

I think it will be very difficult to dislodge both Android and Apple from the top 2 positions. For one, Android has the advantage of being open source, and it is found in more and more markets (phones, tablets, eReaders, cars, GPS, and more to come, like house appliances), whereas Apple has the brand name, though I think it's starting to lose its shine.

Although the tablet market is still in it's infancy, I think it's too late for Microsoft, they may carve a niche for themselves in the corporate world (maybe taking RIM's market share), but I don't see them making it big in the consumer market. For other areas (eReaders, GPS, ...), Microsoft holds no advantages over Android.

As long as Apple and Google can continue to innovate and supply quality products and compete on price, they'll be hard to dislodge. Grrrr, I sound like some empty-headed CEO, don't I? (Lets be proactive and work like a team, people!)

But something tells me that Win8 could still be huge in the mobile market. We'll just have to wait and see.

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

The trick for Apple and Google is to be able to recognize the next disruptive technology and jump on it before upstart companies can. Even if by doing that you are somehow temporarily tramping on your existing business model. (I.e., it would have been easy for Apple to decide against producing a phone because it would eat into their iPod business (which it has), or to avoid producing a tablet because it would eat into their laptop market (which it probably also has, to a lesser degree.)

Well said.

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

Including people who don't think that the next development - which may be a slug that you put in your ear and that crawls to your brain and acts as a phone that you can access with your thoughts - will be better than touchscreen phones.

Um, no way in hell I'm buying that.


Does anybody have any thoughts on Mozilla's Boot2Gecko project?

[heySkippy]

Apple has positioned themselves very well for long term success. Investing in an entire ecosystem as they have gives their users plenty of reasons to stay with the mothership when it's time to upgrade. Why would I buy a Windows tablet when I already have tons of apps, books, and music that work perfectly well with all my Apple devices?

[hidari]

it depends on the person....some people are quite religious when it comes to Apple....some.... buy Apple, Windows and Linux products.... the more competition the better even if one hates Windows or Apple or Google...etc... in the end it makes one's chosen Walled garden a better experience...

[heySkippy]

Originally Posted by hidari

the more competition the better

That's my mantra.

[GA Russell]

With Steve Jobs no longer there to lead, I don't have the same faith in Apple I used to.

[wannabee]

Originally Posted by MV64

And honestly, I think Apple is headed for a great big fall in the next 10-15 years.

If I had a dollar for every time I heard apple was going broke I'd be a rich dude.

[SeaKing]

Originally Posted by GA Russell

With Steve Jobs no longer there to lead, I don't have the same faith in Apple I used to.

No! No! Don't give up.

I am sure Steve is channeling back directions to Mr Cook.