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Old 02-22-2012, 10:48 PM   #1
nrapallo
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Predict the Date: Two Millionth Forum Post...

We are around post #1,950,000, so when do you think we will hit that 2,000,000th post?

Follow-up to Countdown to Mobileread.com's (Public Forum) One-Millionth Post...

Note: at the bottom of this linked page, in the "MobileRead Forums Statistics" section, the current number of Posts to date can be found!

The method I use to determine that 2000000th post is illustrated below:
Click image for larger version

Name:	Predict the Date_2000000-final.gif
Views:	46
Size:	20.1 KB
ID:	84829

It uses the "time span" the # posts left to reach 2,000,000 (call it 'D') is needed to reach today's post # from the past and represents that as 'G' days. Then, 'G' days from now becomes the predicted date.

The first few times I have calculated these predictions have resulted in the same date i.e. April 1, 2012!

EDIT: Actual winning date was April 3, 2012 (with post #208342 being posted by pdurrant). Perhaps his mod powers are greater than first thought!

Last edited by nrapallo; 04-03-2012 at 07:17 PM. Reason: indicates the method I use to "predict" that date and charts the results!!!
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Old 02-22-2012, 11:08 PM   #2
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Ok, I predict
Spoiler:
April 1, 2012
... No really!
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Old 02-23-2012, 02:21 PM   #3
red_phoenix
Turning up the heat
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I would like:

Spoiler:
April 13, 2012
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Old 02-23-2012, 03:19 PM   #4
nrapallo
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nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
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I wonder if we should use "The Price is Right" rules, i.e. closes to, BUT NOT OVER!
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Old 02-24-2012, 09:26 AM   #5
HomeInMyShoes
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April 6th, 2012. Obviously some may try to push that number quicker.
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Old 02-27-2012, 06:56 PM   #6
nrapallo
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nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.nrapallo ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
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BTW, my prediction is still "right on target"....

Oh...., and in case of a tie, the earlier entry WINS........

Wins what? [bragging rights]
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Old 02-27-2012, 07:30 PM   #7
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$1



It won't let me post just characters.
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Old 02-27-2012, 07:51 PM   #8
AnemicOak
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April 8th
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Old 03-01-2012, 09:47 AM   #9
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I think on April 14
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Old 03-01-2012, 09:52 AM   #10
HomeInMyShoes
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1,959,069 +a few probably.
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Old 03-05-2012, 12:14 PM   #11
nrapallo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nrapallo View Post
BTW, my prediction is still "right on target"....
Uncanning! still on track!!! See post #1 for the method I use to determine that 2000000th post.

It uses the "time span" the # posts left to reach 2,000,000 (call it 'D') is needed to reach today's post # from the past and represents that as 'G' days. Then, 'G' days from now becomes the predicted date.

All the times I have updated these predictions have resulted in the same date i.e. April 1, 2012!

Last edited by nrapallo; 03-12-2012 at 11:06 AM.
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Old 03-06-2012, 09:53 AM   #12
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HomeInMyShoes ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HomeInMyShoes ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HomeInMyShoes ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HomeInMyShoes ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HomeInMyShoes ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HomeInMyShoes ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HomeInMyShoes ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HomeInMyShoes ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HomeInMyShoes ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HomeInMyShoes ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.HomeInMyShoes ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
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1,965,542

Looks like the pace is picking up slightly. It might be before the end of the month.
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Old 03-12-2012, 11:14 AM   #13
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Twenty days to go, I think!

The updated results in post #1 still shows me that April 1, 2012 will be that date.

Is the method I use "flawed" or are we at mobileread.com so damn consistently chatty....

p.s. just so that you know, the post # predicted as being the 2,000,000th keeps increasing as the forum software uses on post # for both the members and moderators sections. Whereas the Total Posts only uses member post and excludes all moderator posts in that post count. The post # itself doesn't, so we can indirectly infer the number of moderator and/or deleted posts as well.

I know useless info, but someone has to keep these facts straight... ;rofl:
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Old 03-14-2012, 03:12 AM   #14
dreams
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nrapallo View Post

I know useless info, but someone has to keep these facts straight... ;rofl:[/SIZE]


Hey Nick.

I'll guess.. $2

Oh! and April 4th.
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Old 03-14-2012, 04:46 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dreams View Post


Hey Nick.

I'll guess.. $2

Oh! and April 4th.
Hi dreamy dreams, ... oh, ... I'm not in a dream, ok then, Hi dreams!

Great guess! As I recall, you were so close to actually being the 1,000,000th poster in July 2010 with post#1010823 (my official prediction then)!
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