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 MobileRead Forums Unutterably Silly Predict the Date: Two Millionth Forum Post...

 02-22-2012, 10:48 PM #1 nrapallo GuteBook/Mobi2IMP Creator     Posts: 2,958 Karma: 2530531 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Toronto, Canada Device: REB1200 EBW1150 Device: T1 NSTG iLiad_v2 NC Device: Asus_TF Next1 WPDN Predict the Date: Two Millionth Forum Post... We are around post #1,950,000, so when do you think we will hit that 2,000,000th post? Follow-up to Countdown to Mobileread.com's (Public Forum) One-Millionth Post... Note: at the bottom of this linked page, in the "MobileRead Forums Statistics" section, the current number of Posts to date can be found! The method I use to determine that 2000000th post is illustrated below: It uses the "time span" the # posts left to reach 2,000,000 (call it 'D') is needed to reach today's post # from the past and represents that as 'G' days. Then, 'G' days from now becomes the predicted date. The first few times I have calculated these predictions have resulted in the same date i.e. April 1, 2012! EDIT: Actual winning date was April 3, 2012 (with post #208342 being posted by pdurrant). Perhaps his mod powers are greater than first thought! Last edited by nrapallo; 04-03-2012 at 07:17 PM. Reason: indicates the method I use to "predict" that date and charts the results!!!
 02-22-2012, 11:08 PM #2 nrapallo GuteBook/Mobi2IMP Creator     Posts: 2,958 Karma: 2530531 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Toronto, Canada Device: REB1200 EBW1150 Device: T1 NSTG iLiad_v2 NC Device: Asus_TF Next1 WPDN Ok, I predict Spoiler: April 1, 2012 ... No really!
 02-23-2012, 02:21 PM #3 red_phoenix Avatar by Thing 2     Posts: 17,908 Karma: 413847886 Join Date: Dec 2011 Device: Sony PRS-T1 I would like: Spoiler: April 13, 2012
 02-23-2012, 03:19 PM #4 nrapallo GuteBook/Mobi2IMP Creator     Posts: 2,958 Karma: 2530531 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Toronto, Canada Device: REB1200 EBW1150 Device: T1 NSTG iLiad_v2 NC Device: Asus_TF Next1 WPDN I wonder if we should use "The Price is Right" rules, i.e. closes to, BUT NOT OVER!
 02-24-2012, 09:26 AM #5 HomeInMyShoes missing my cat     Posts: 16,749 Karma: 57594031 Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: junkyard Device: Kindle3 April 6th, 2012. Obviously some may try to push that number quicker.
 02-27-2012, 06:56 PM #6 nrapallo GuteBook/Mobi2IMP Creator     Posts: 2,958 Karma: 2530531 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Toronto, Canada Device: REB1200 EBW1150 Device: T1 NSTG iLiad_v2 NC Device: Asus_TF Next1 WPDN BTW, my prediction is still "right on target".... Oh...., and in case of a tie, the earlier entry WINS........ Wins what? [bragging rights]
 02-27-2012, 07:30 PM #7 Daithi Publishers are evil!     Posts: 2,418 Karma: 36205264 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Rhode Island Device: Various Kindles \$1 It won't let me post just characters.
 02-27-2012, 07:51 PM #8 AnemicOak Bookaholic     Posts: 11,371 Karma: 36479048 Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Minnesota Device: HDX 8.9, AuraHD, Nook HD+, Kindle 2,3,T , Opus, Nexus7, iPhone 6, etc April 8th
 03-01-2012, 09:47 AM #9 silvan4now Groupie     Posts: 173 Karma: 224260 Join Date: Oct 2011 Device: none I think on April 14
 03-01-2012, 09:52 AM #10 HomeInMyShoes missing my cat     Posts: 16,749 Karma: 57594031 Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: junkyard Device: Kindle3 1,959,069 +a few probably.
03-05-2012, 12:14 PM   #11
nrapallo
GuteBook/Mobi2IMP Creator

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Quote:
 Originally Posted by nrapallo BTW, my prediction is still "right on target"....
Uncanning! still on track!!! See post #1 for the method I use to determine that 2000000th post.

It uses the "time span" the # posts left to reach 2,000,000 (call it 'D') is needed to reach today's post # from the past and represents that as 'G' days. Then, 'G' days from now becomes the predicted date.

All the times I have updated these predictions have resulted in the same date i.e. April 1, 2012!

Last edited by nrapallo; 03-12-2012 at 11:06 AM.

 03-06-2012, 09:53 AM #12 HomeInMyShoes missing my cat     Posts: 16,749 Karma: 57594031 Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: junkyard Device: Kindle3 1,965,542 Looks like the pace is picking up slightly. It might be before the end of the month.
 03-12-2012, 11:14 AM #13 nrapallo GuteBook/Mobi2IMP Creator     Posts: 2,958 Karma: 2530531 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Toronto, Canada Device: REB1200 EBW1150 Device: T1 NSTG iLiad_v2 NC Device: Asus_TF Next1 WPDN Twenty days to go, I think! The updated results in post #1 still shows me that April 1, 2012 will be that date. Is the method I use "flawed" or are we at mobileread.com so damn consistently chatty.... p.s. just so that you know, the post # predicted as being the 2,000,000th keeps increasing as the forum software uses on post # for both the members and moderators sections. Whereas the Total Posts only uses member post and excludes all moderator posts in that post count. The post # itself doesn't, so we can indirectly infer the number of moderator and/or deleted posts as well. I know useless info, but someone has to keep these facts straight... ;rofl:
03-14-2012, 03:12 AM   #14
dreams

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Quote:
 Originally Posted by nrapallo I know useless info, but someone has to keep these facts straight... ;rofl:[/SIZE]

Hey Nick.

I'll guess.. \$2

Oh! and April 4th.

03-14-2012, 04:46 PM   #15
nrapallo
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by dreams Hey Nick. I'll guess.. \$2 Oh! and April 4th.
Hi dreamy dreams, ... oh, ... I'm not in a dream, ok then, Hi dreams!

Great guess! As I recall, you were so close to actually being the 1,000,000th poster in July 2010 with post#1010823 (my official prediction then)!

 Tags 2000000, million, post, predict