PVI screen shipments: the real(?) numbers

[igorsk]

Vladimir Levchenko of the MUK company (makers of the lBook - Ukrainian version of Jinke's Hanlin) was quite sceptical of the much touted Evan Schnittman's estimate on Kindle and Reader shipments. He provided his own numbers, reportedly directly from his talks with PVI management.

Currently PVI produces around 20000* screens per month. Yield is about 63-68% - a very low number. Half of the defective screens is recycled, another half is sold at a $15-$20 discount.
These numbers are much closer to reality.
From the start of production and until April 2008 Lenovo** has shipped approximately 55000 Kindles.

* it's not clear if the number is total production or only screens that passed QA.
** he says Lenovo is part of the FoxConn/HonHai conglomerate.

Well, I'd take this with a grain of salt (he's been wrong in some of his claims before), but these numbers are much more beleivable to me.

[HarryT]

That sounds much more realistic. We know (from peoples' order numbers) that Bookeen are shipping around about 2000-3000 Gen3's per month, which would equate to 10-15% of PVI's screen output. If Amazon are getting, say, 50% of the output (10,000 screens a month) that would put their Kindle sales at about 3-5x what Bookeen are selling, which seems reasonable to me.

[chef]

Originally Posted by HarryT

That sounds much more realistic. We know (from peoples' order numbers) that Bookeen are shipping around about 2000-3000 Gen3's per month, which would equate to 10-15% of PVI's screen output. If Amazon are getting, say, 50% of the output (10,000 screens a month) that would put their Kindle sales at about 3-5x what Bookeen are selling, which seems reasonable to me.

I think these numbers are quite low by a drastic amount. But your math doesn't match up with the OP anyway. Bookeen sells 2000-3000/month. Amazon sells 3-5x more than Bookeen. That means Amazon has sold somewhere between 6000-15000/month. They have been selling for almost 7 months now. So that means there have been between 42000-105000 sold by Amazon. 50k is quite low in that range.

[Elsi]

Originally Posted by igorsk

Vladimir Levchenko of the MUK company (makers of the lBook - Ukrainian version of Jinke's Hanlin) was quite sceptical of the much touted Evan Schnittman's estimate on Kindle and Reader shipments. He provided his own numbers, reportedly directly from his talks with PVI management.

** he says Lenovo is part of the FoxConn/HonHai conglomerate.

The same Lenovo that bought IBM's laptop business?

[Walk Broad]

Originally Posted by chef

I think these numbers are quite low by a drastic amount. But your math doesn't match up with the OP anyway. Bookeen sells 2000-3000/month. Amazon sells 3-5x more than Bookeen. That means Amazon has sold somewhere between 6000-15000/month. They have been selling for almost 7 months now. So that means there have been between 42000-105000 sold by Amazon. 50k is quite low in that range.

Which is probably why Steve Bezos isn't bragging about (or releasing) sales numbers right now.

Not that 100,000 (guesstimate) is anything to sneeze at for a new device, in fact, in pre-iPhone days, that would probably be a respectable number. But it is hardly knocking sales out of the ball park.

He's keeping sales figures quiet as to not scare off Amazon investors who would probably start to question the Kindle.

Unfortunately, in today's world, if something isn't a run-away bestseller or immediate box office block buster, or sells 1,000,000 units in 30 days for example, investors start to get antsy.

And even though the Kindle is selling consistently (good, stable numbers for (probable) long term success), Amazon doesn't need investors crying to the press saying the Kindle is a "failure" because it didn't post huge sales numbers.

[tlrowley]

Originally Posted by Walk Broad

Which is probably why Steve Bezos isn't bragging about (or releasing) sales numbers right now.

Someone really wants an Apple designed Kindle

[Walk Broad]

Er, actually, no.

Whereas I think Apple entering the e-book market would be a tremenodus boon for e-books and reading devices overall, I'm waiting to see the Astak model or will be getting the eBookwise 1150 if the 5-inch Astak doesn't live up to expectations.

[Bob.Zune]

Since the Kindle and Cybook Gen3 and Sony readers are all "relatively new," my general rule of thumb for equipment sold (ratios) is the comparing the number of people browsing each of the forums over a period of time (say every hour for a day or two, or same clock-time over a few days). Within a small percent error, this *should* give us the ratio of the number of units sold on each.

Perhaps it is too 'statistical' for some people.

[chef]

Originally Posted by Walk Broad

Er, actually, no.

Whereas I think Apple entering the e-book market would be a tremenodus boon for e-books and reading devices overall, I'm waiting to see the Astak model or will be getting the eBookwise 1150 if the 5-inch Astak doesn't live up to expectations.

If you don't go with Astak, I don't want to hear any complaining about eyestrain.

[Walk Broad]

There are eyestrain problems with the eBookwise 1150?

No one told me!

I sure hope Astak comes through then

[HarryT]

Many people experience eye-strain with light-emitting screens. It's very much a personal thing, however.

[axel77]

Originally Posted by Bob.Zune

Since the Kindle and Cybook Gen3 and Sony readers are all "relatively new," my general rule of thumb for equipment sold (ratios) is the comparing the number of people browsing each of the forums over a period of time (say every hour for a day or two, or same clock-time over a few days). Within a small percent error, this *should* give us the ratio of the number of units sold on each.

Perhaps it is too 'statistical' for some people.

I might be wrong, but from the screenshots I think the 5-inch astak is actually just a rebranded sony.

The only device they seem to really develop is the 9-inch one, which really looks quite different to the other sizes.

[Nate the great]

Originally Posted by axel77

I might be wrong, but from the screenshots I think the 5-inch astak is actually just a rebranded sony.

The only device they seem to really develop is the 9-inch one, which really looks quite different to the other sizes.

The Sony Reader has a 6" screen. The 5" model does not have a 6" screen.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by axel77

I might be wrong, but from the screenshots I think the 5-inch astak is actually just a rebranded sony.

Your logic slightly escapes me. How can an Astak, which uses a 5" screen, be a "rebranded" version of a device which has a 6" screen?

[Tom90deg]

Originally Posted by Walk Broad

Er, actually, no.

Whereas I think Apple entering the e-book market would be a tremenodus boon for e-books and reading devices overall, I'm waiting to see the Astak model or will be getting the eBookwise 1150 if the 5-inch Astak doesn't live up to expectations.

I'm gonna have to disagree here. Apple does some stuff very well, but it seems to me that Apple's policy is first, make it look cool. Second, make it do what it's supposed to do. The Kindle is ugly. BUT, it's Ugly in the way, as someone said, a stealth fighter is ugly. All those buttons, the shape, it all serves a reason. I think If apple designed it, they'd first make it look shiny and sleek, then try to make it do what it's supposed to do.

I'm sorry if this came off as Anti-apple, but I think they put too much focus on how a product looks and it's "cool" factor. They do some good stuff, but they're not the end-all when it comes to design.