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Old 12-31-2011, 09:14 AM   #1
pdurrant
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Predict the date: 200,000 members
On the 31st December 2011, MobileRead welcomed its 150,000th member.

We are now very close to 200,000 members.

I want people to guess what date and time the 200,000th member will join, in three hour time slots, all GMT. ENTRIES ARE NOW CLOSED.

Good luck, everyone!

Here's a zoomed in graph on recent membership numbers, covering the six weeks from 1st February. I think it's clear that we will reach 200,000 members before 14th March. I will update the graph every day as far as possible. Guess early, and you won't have as much data. Guess late, and someone might already have grabbed your preferred time slot!



Entries:
2nd March
12:00-15:00 — JSWolf
15:00-18:00 — troll05
18:00-21:00 — Ekaros
21:00-24:00 — Hamlet53
3rd March
09:00-12:00 — pdurrant
12:00-15:00 — Bilbo1967
15:00-18:00 — Javed
18:00-21:00 — red_phoenix
4th March
18:00-21:00 — dreams
6th March
15:00-18:00 — vivaldirules
9th March
12:00-15:00 — WT Sharpe
15th March
15:00-18:00 — poohbear_nc
18:00-21:00 — maianhvk

NB No actual prize provided. Only the glory of getting it right.


The guesses for the date competition, closing date 31st October 2012:
Spoiler:


red_pheonix: 25th December
Bilbo: 26th December
Hamlet53, Prestidigitweeze: 27th December
David Munch: 28th December
Nyssa: 29th December
WT Sharpe: 5th January
pdurrant: 8th January
HomeInMyShoes: 24th January
Javed: 28th January
dreams: 29th January
vivaldirules: 17th February
shenye: 28th February

In the competition to guess the date of the 200,000th member, I declare that shenye is the winner* of the competition, as theirs is the only guess left that hasn't been proved wrong, and it looks certain to be the closest to the actual date.

Congratulations, shenye!

Previous predictions, made before the end of March 2011, were all wrong; mis-led by the much larger than usual number of new members around Christmas.

Spoiler:
WT Sharpe: 2nd April 2012
maianhvk: 26th May 2012
wannabee: 28th May 2012
The Terminator: 20th June 2012
HomeInMyShoes: 23rd June 2012
redbees: 28th June 2012
Hamlet53: 30th June 2012
red_pheonix: 3rd July 2012
74Cuda: 10th July 2012
pdurrant: 17th July 2012
tilia: 29th July 2012
JoelArnold: 1st August 2012
AnemicOak: 15th August 2012
Nyssa: 29th August 2012
afa: 18th September 2012
Bilbo1967: 5th October 2012



(Ref: predict the date for 40,000 members thread
predict the date for 150,000 members thread)
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version Name: chart.png Views: 45 Size: 37.9 KB ID: 102170  
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Last edited by pdurrant; 03-01-2013 at 09:07 AM. Reason: updated graph, NEW COMPETITION
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Old 12-31-2011, 04:04 PM   #2
Hamlet53
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I well put in a guess of June 30, 2012.
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Old 12-31-2011, 06:28 PM   #3
Nyssa
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I will predict August 29th 2012
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Old 12-31-2011, 07:07 PM   #4
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I'll say June 20th.
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Old 01-01-2012, 12:52 AM   #5
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I'll go early as I think eReaders and tablets will be big Christmas gifts this year.
May 28th.
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Old 01-01-2012, 02:01 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wannabee View Post
I'll go early as I think eReaders and tablets will be big Christmas gifts this year.
May 28th.
I'm going to go even earlier. I'll say April the second.
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Old 01-01-2012, 06:21 AM   #7
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I'm guessing 17th July, 2012
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Old 01-02-2012, 09:32 AM   #8
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June 23rd, 2012.
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Old 01-02-2012, 09:36 AM   #9
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July 10th 2012
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Old 01-03-2012, 07:20 AM   #10
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Since everyone is guessing early, I'm gonna go ahead and take the later bet...

I predict 18 September 2012.
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Old 01-03-2012, 10:31 PM   #11
WT Sharpe
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Wow, dude—you're off the chart! (But you may be right.)
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Old 01-06-2012, 03:30 PM   #12
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Hmm... I pick 29th July 2012.
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Old 01-11-2012, 06:54 AM   #13
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Oh oh! This might be where I need to start a membership campaign!
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Old 01-12-2012, 08:36 AM   #14
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Looks like we're right on track for my guess.
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Old 01-13-2012, 11:01 AM   #15
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I'm going to say August 1, 2012. Give or take six months...
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