Quote:
Originally Posted by PatNY
Ahh, thanks for illustrating your own comical misunderstanding of how app profits work!
Nope. My thesis is that the reason developers are flocking to android more than iOS (and that part isn't a thesis; it's fact) is because of greater profit potential currently and in the near future (up to two years).
You do know that app profits are a continuous stream, don't you? Developers don't realize profits only at a set point in time. For at least a moderately successful app, the profits come in almost right away with initial sales, and will continue to grow if either (a) the app grows in popularity OR (b) the user base grows larger. So, since the android user base is growing exponentially faster than iOS, a developer can submit his app to Google Play tomorrow, start getting good profits almost right away, then sit back for the next few years and watch his profits continue to roll in (with maybe only a few app updates in the interim needed). So he's counting on the Android user base to be maybe twice the current size in 12 or 16 months, increasing his profit potential in tandem. It's like investing for continuous dividends and compounded growth. And in this case the developers are "investing" with Android more heavily.  |
This post betrays an incredibly poor understanding of the subject under discussion, as well as basic math.
Contrary to what you have claimed, it is not a fact that there are more Android developers than iOS developers. There is no central database of statistics about Android developer accounts, and to my knowledge even Apple doesn't release the total number of developer accounts, so there is no way of knowing this. However, we do know that
developer interest in Android has declined for the fourth quarter in a row. The reasons for this are related to fragmentation, piracy, and inferior development tools, but especially money.
You are arguing that developers would deliberately choose to leave money on the table for years, if given the choice. A developer is given the choice between making an iOS or an Android app today. She can expect, on average, to make 400% more money from a paid iOS app and 347% more money from an ad-supported iOS app. This is a no-brainer. Every single day, until (and only if) Android reaches revenue parity, she would be making more money on iOS. There is no rational economic incentive to develop for Android first. None.
Let's say the Android user base doubles in 16 months. Let's be generous and say app revenues double alongside it. That means that nearly a year and a half from now, our developer would
still be making 50% more on iOS than on Android.
Your description makes it sound like app developing is a leisurely life, where you just sit back and watch the profits roll in, like watching stocks go up. People can afford to make 2+ year "investments" to wait for income. That's not it at all. 60% of apps on iOS—the most profitable platform—
don't break even. 80% of developers can't make a living from their apps alone. And you expect these people to shift to a platform that is 400% less profitable?
Do you have any idea how nonsensical your position is? How utterly laughable?
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatNY
And now you're being willfully shifty ....
After having just said "These are not ads in the Opera browser" (your exact words) you now admit right above that the ads are displayed in mobile browsers, after I point out to you your utter confusion. And while ads are displayed in all browsers, the data in this report is for only the Opera browser.
--Pat
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LOL I'm glad all this is being saved for posterity.
"Opera says that on its network, apps account for over 80% of all traffic, and 72.7% of all mobile advertising revenue worldwide."
Explain to us Pat, how apps can account for 80% of Opera's ad traffic when, according to you, these ads are only being shown in the Opera browser.