Quote:
Originally Posted by leebase
The pc world is largely stagnant, with falling sales. Smart phones already outsell PC's and are in hyper growth mode. In a couple years tablets will outsell PC's too. Already the iPad sells more than HP (the largest pc maker).
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Actually, PCs are seeing slower sales growth, not falling sales.
Quote:
Originally Posted by leebase
So current sales do a better job of displaying the trend than installed base. Of course the current installed base of computers is much larger.
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I'd say the opposite. PCs have achieved a level of market saturation which, coupled with "stagnation" in the pressures to upgrade existing machines, is slowing sales. The difference in growth between the PC and mobile market demonstrates the difference in those two factors, market saturation and upgrade pressure, not interest in or use of PCs.
Eventually though, the lull in PC upgrade pressures will probably give way to a spike in new purchases, either in response to a truly new technology like optical RAM or quantum computing, or due to a critical mass of the incremental improvements we've seen in the last 4-5 years. I would say that time is still at least a couple years away; there's nothing revolutionary in the pipeline just yet.