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Old 04-23-2008, 03:44 AM   #26
soilwork
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Quote:
Originally Posted by axel77 View Post
I'm not treating it equally. I merly said *if* you take any announcement without assesment of probability, you might as well wait for the Papyrus. Because I did not see any of this, "hey its 60% propable" assement in the early posts.
I think it should be obvious in my previous posts since I mentioned several times it is based on 'assumptions'. I was not treating as if the product is out. If the product is out as it stated with stylus feature, Iliad should go out of the market right now. I would have told any person to stay away from Iliad no matter what. I said waiting for a future product can be a viable option for some people.

Quote:
For the astak 60% for hitting the market at all, or also doing everything what you expect it to do? Its a personal "risk" which is subjective. So say the 40% case gets to be a real thing, and it goes not to market, because say windows CE just can't handle eInk displays, company loses interest, whatever. And you wait 'til August, then some months more, and in December you decide to buy an iLiad after all for much the price it is today.. Well you lost 9 months of being able to use the device...
According to your logic, if there is any chance that the product will not come to market, then should not consider it since you will experience huge regret when the outcome turns out to be unfavorable. Then, we should buy whatever it is available regardless of the cost or any future alternative.
If you consider uncertainty, even if the result may not be favorable, waiting for a future alternative can be rational decision and it may be the best decision you can make at the point in time with the given information.
Let me denote the utility of both options as
A) U(waiting for Astak/Netronix product) = (the utility of Astak/Netronix) * weighted by the probability (e.g. 0.6)
B) U(Using iliad right now) = utility of using Iliad
Then, economically rational consumer will wait if A is greater than B. If B is greater then A, then the person should buy Iliad right now.
Let us think about a person decided to wait since A > B.
Until it becomes clear either Astak/Netronix hit the market or disappear, there will always be uncertainty. Ex ante, we don't know outcome exactly, so waiting for the product can be a rational choice given the information/uncertainty/subject belief at the time when the person made the decision. Of course, the result may not be favorable but at least the decision is best the person can make anyway.


Quote:
And as I said, I take a 99% chance, that there will be any better/cheaper device in 12-24 months. But in 12 months there will be again a 99% chance that 12 months later there will be another yet better device, and 12 months later... you get it..

It still the same with notebooks. There is nothing older in the universe than the notebook I bought last month
It does not mean that you should buy whatever is available if you do not want to wait indefinitely.
Let us think about a person who has 500$ to spend on e-ink reader. Then, Iliad is not an option. As you said, there will be cheaper and better e-ink reader in the future. Then, the person can purchase the first e-ink reader that sells under 500$ with reasonable PDF support. Then, for this person, waiting for a future product is the best decision since he/she cannot afford the current one.


Let me summarize my main argument/claim. "Waiting for a potential future product can be a viable option for some people especially those who can wait". If you have any comments on my main point, you are welcome. However, I would like to avoid answering irrelevant details from now on.

Last edited by soilwork; 04-23-2008 at 03:47 AM.
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