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Will Baen's be around in 20 years? Being a small organization, I don't know. They seem to have made it through Jim Baen's death, so I am hopeful. Their model should survive quite nicely.
As to the big six, I'm not so optimistic. They are all trapped as part of larger comglomerates, all of whom follow the Hollywood big hit/big profit model, rather than the old large variety/steady modest profit models. They have large, expensive, management superstructures and other higher embedded costs. They are neither nimble or end-customer oriented.
Frankly, the day Baen determines they can run a profitable e-book only line, is the end of the big six as far as entertainment reading goes. Why? Because they are limited by TOR for shelf space/release count currently. In an e-book only world, they could publish a huge amount of backlist works that the big six have no interest in. leaving the big hit/big gamble world to the big six....
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