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Originally Posted by VydorScope
So I agree with this. I pick some nits with the rest of your post, but this is right. The hard truth is that...
Some Indies are killing it - making 6 figures a year off their books. I know this first hand from multiple authors.
Some Indies are doing okay making a livable wage at it. I know this first hand from multiple authors.
Some Indies are making a good hobby salary off it (4 figures). I know this first hand from multiple authors.
BUT - and we must not forget this - the vast majority of books DO NO SELL. For example - the top 1,000 best selling indie books according to a Smashwords 2013 survey (limited to their own books/channels) make up 50% of the sales. It is a long tail market.
An inde can make it. That is a proven fact. BUT that does not free you from having to produce a quality book that people actually want to read - AND doing all the marketing, promotion, fan interaction, etc - yourself. It is a lot more work than the traditional route. In exchange you are your own boss, and make 60-70% royalties.
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I don't disagree with your facts, but I think you're overstating the likelihood of success when going indie while ignoring the benefits of commercial publishing.
Both options have advantages and disadvantages.
Self-publication has a much lower barrier to entry, and it is easier to make at least some money through self-publication.
Commercial publication has significant barriers to entry, not least of which being that each publisher only has so many openings in their catalog, some of which are taken years in advance by their biggest sellers.
It's harder to get in, but the minimum return for an author who gets commercially published is much higher. Overall sales numbers are generally better, too.
However, because self-publishers get to keep more of their money, they can easily undercut the competition and still make more money. If you go with Amazon's 70% option, you can make more than three times as much from a single sale at $2.99 than a commercially published author does from a sale at $7.99.
On the flip side, it's often easier for a commercially published author to get those three sales than an indie author.
It cuts both ways.
The truth is there's no one best choice for everyone.