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Well, I think the Kindle will outsell the Sony devices by a large margin (it may already be close to doing so), as all e-ink readers are still exotic niche technology and most people don't yet have a clue as to what they are or even that they exist.
There's psychological phenomenon were if you ask someone how large a company and how many units of a product they sell, most people will estimate too high by a factor of ten or so.
50,000 units over the first year sounds like a fairly big number to me. That's around 4,000 units a month which is on the high side of what I would have guessed Amazon is selling even in its first month or two.
These numbers don't say much about whether the Kindle or any e-ink reader will be "successful" in the long run. If Amazon continues to promote the device, offers a continuous stream of software improvements and new titles for the existing device, and eventually comes out with new models, then the Kindle is much more likely to be a success than if they just sit back at this point and wait for people to beat a path to their door.
Book readers are the sort of new technology that you have to beat people over the head with for years before they finally go "oh, that's cool, is this new?".
Z.
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