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In the end, when e-books overtake paper books (and they will) will depend on economics. Unless people are voracious readers, it remains cheaper to buy (or borrow from a library) paper books, especially if people buy used or, even cheaper, buy used then trade them in when they are done with them.
The price of e-book readers needs to come down dramatically and quality and durability needs to increase (when's the last time you broke a book, rendering it unreadable, by dropping it?). People will be more likely to buy e-book readers if they are easier to read, cart around, won't break when dropped, are more reliable and are easier to use. Books don't break, have batteries, and are as simple to use as anything will ever be. E-book readers need to come close to that with the difference being offset by being cheaper and taking up less room than a library of paper books.
E-books need to become more available and publishers need to get over their copyright violation paranoia and plain old greed. Copy protection schemes in place now do not work but do drive away potential new adoptors of the new technology. Instead of trying to make e-books uncopiable, both physically and legally, attention needs to be focused on how to catch and prosecute violators. How? I don't know but the present system isn't working and is hurting everyone in the long run.
The claim by publishers that e-books are killing them is just an admission that they do not know how to profit from the new technology. Instead of fighting the eventuallity, they need to just go ahead and plan for it. Instead of bemoaning how e-books are hurting paper books sales, start scaling back paper book production and ramping up the distribution of e-books. The present factories cost money to operate, maintain, and upgrade. As a factory ages, instead of throwing more money at it, phase it out or, even better, repurpose it (Studebaker and Greyhound are still around under different names, they just saw the light and got out the car and bus business). In the long run (and, with wise planning, the short run), they stand to increase their profits.
The final stumbling block to e-books replacing is people still being attached to paper books. Part of this is the need for something tangible to hold and own. Something physically intangible as a digital file is uncomfortable. Younger people tend to be quicker to adopt new technology so that discomfort will start dying out with us flatuent geriatrics.
The time will come. How soon depends on the variables I've mentioned.
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