There's nothing like silence to get tongues wagging. The refusal of Amazon to reveal how many Kindles or e-books the company has sold has morphed into a major guessing game. Analysts have taken sides, and this week,
Steve Weinstein of Pacific Crest hinted that global
e-book sales at Amazon could reach $2.5 billion by the year 2012. PaidContent
reports:
Quote:
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To figure this, Weinstein starts with the handiest analogue: iPod and MP3 player sales. He notes that between 2003 and 2008, digital music sales grew from 2 percent of the US market to 33 percent, largely on the back of Apple’s (NSDQ: AAPL) twin offerings. He doesn’t expect the Kindle/e-books to track as fast, but he does think the market is off to a strong start already, and that the cycle will pick up steam as the Kindle comes down in price (that’s already started) and the ecosystem matures. He also suspects the consumers will be drawn to the instant gratification aspect of Kindle titles, as well as the lower price per book.
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Mr. Weinstein's line of reasoning reminds me of the
Kindle is the iPod of reading analogy, first coined by Steve Levyin in his widely read
Newsweek cover story. But the underlying question really is: Do you believe that the Kindle (or e-books in general) will have the same impact on publishing that Apple's iPod had on the music business?
Related: Amazon Kindle projections overrated?,
PVI revenues drop - weakening e-paper orders,
E-books are three years behind MP3s