Quote:
Originally Posted by kjk
I said it doesn't look like removing DRM hurt song sales. Which is what record companies and proponents of DRM have always claimed-that without DRM no one would buy songs-they would just steal them....
|
OK. But you do know that overall music sales are tanking, and that digital sales are not making up the difference, right...?
I've also seen estimates that illegal/infringing music downloads for 2008 as high as 40 billion tracks. Even if the figures are off, I don't think there's much proof that a flourishing DRM-free music retail offering is substantially reducing piracy.
That said, I don't think there is solid evidence that the two largest digital music vendors going DRM-free has either hurt or helped sales. I'm not even sure you could get reliable data on the matter -- I don't think it's a clear-cut issue.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by kjk
Will it work for books or films? I'm guessing films and TV shows will inevitably follow music.
|
Why?
Granted it isn't hard to rip and share video, but it requires a heck of a lot more bandwidth, it's rare to stream pirated video, DRM has minimal effect on streaming services; video codecs are also a bit of a mess. As to books, right now I just don't see the same kind of pressures as you had in music; e.g. the back catalog that has been pirated just isn't as extensive as it is for music.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by kjk
I don't have the same optimism for books, if only because that industry seems even slower to react than Hollywood.
|
Yeah, I don't buy the whole "zomg publishers are luddites" thing. Few industries react well to highly disruptive technologies, and books are handling the transition better than some others out there.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by calvin-c
Correlation does prove relationship though. Unless you believe it's just coincidence. (I'm not good enough at statistics to compute the odds on that, but I am good enough to figure the magnitude, and it's astronomical.)
|
No, the odds are not "astronomical." It's merely fallacious to assume that two events occurring simultaneously have a causal relationship, especially when you ignore the other events and results happening at the same time (e.g. decline in total music sales, increase in iPods sold, consolidation in digital music sales retail etc).
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by calvin-c
So it could be that the increase in iTunes music sales was what caused them to go DRM-free. Or it could be that both factors were caused by a third. Or, it could be as claimed, that going DRM-free caused the increase in sales. Pick whichever one of those makes the most sense.
|
I think I'll take "none of the above," thanks.
My suspicion is that most users don't care about DRM, except for the moments when it interferes with their ability to do something. Customers didn't flock to eMusic because it was DRM-free; they went for Apple because it had a smooth user experience and later, good song availability and perhaps better editorial aspects. But again, I don't see any solid evidence of the DRM issue affecting sales in either direction.