Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew H.
The graph is only one data point in an complicated economy...but it sure looks like piracy may be having an effect on music sales. Looking at the previous dip, the high point for music sales was in 1978; there was a steep 4-year fall, and sales hit their lowest point in 1982. There was a plateau for about a year and sales begain going up again in 1983. So 4 year drop, 1 year plateau, gradual climb up again.
Contrast that to the more recent decline - sales were at their peak in 1999 and basically fell for the next 10 years. There is what probably looked like it would be a plateau in 2003...but then music sales just continued to fall. This 10 year fall doesn't really look anything like the shorter, less deep 4 year fall of the early 80's.
I should also point out that the recession of 90-91 doesn't seem to have had any effect on music sales.
As I mentioned above, it's hard to really pin a cause/effect relationship on a graph like this. But the graph doesn't really suggest that we are just in a down cycle like 78-82 (although that may have some effect); nor does it support a purely recessionary theory (due to the 90-91 recession being missed, among other things). It's really hard to avoid the conclusion that piracy has likely contributed to at least some of the decline we've seen since 1999, even though there are almost certainly several other factors that will have contributed to the decline, one of was probably the economy.
|
There hasn't been a decline in the music industry, there's been a decline in recorded music sales. The drop off in recorded music sales in 1999 also corresponds rather nicely with the major record labels being charged with illegal price fixing in that year; generally revenues fall when you're forced to stop price fixing.
I hate to post this a second time in the same thread, but it's relevant:
This doesn't mean that there's no losses due to piracy, but let's keep things in the proper perspective - content producers are making more money now than ever have thanks to the internet.