I will be shocked if dedicated reader sales keep up with webpad/tablets much longer.
The latter are drawing from the Netbook and cellphone buyer pools. These days everybody surfs the net but nobody reads for pleasure. (if Mr Jobs can be believed.
)
Very different scales.
With Amazon running 8 million that puts the dedicated reader market at maybe 12 million for 2010. 50% growth would put it under 20 million fo 2011 and that's something iPad can do by itself.
The cellphone market runs something like 100 million a year, no?
PCs run 250 million a year.
So dedicated readers peaking at about 25 million a year, long term, sounds about right to me. Not a bad business by itself but hardly in PC cellphone territory.