Little is known of just how many Kindle devices Amazon has sold so far, but at least one of those ever-insightful analysts,
Mark Mahaney of Citigroup, predicts that the number is huge. So huge, in fact, that he has upped his initial estimate for 2008 from 380,000 units to now 500,000. Think that's a lot? It would have been more - 750,000 - had Amazon not run out of Kindles before Christmas. Apparently, to support his guesswork, Mr. Mahaney used some disclosed figures from a Spring filing that referred to wholesale partners using the Sprint network.
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Mahaney now thinks Amazon's all-in Kindle revenue could reach $1.4 billion in 2010, or an impressive 4% of Amazon's revenue that year. This assumes that Amazon will sell 1 million Kindles in 2009 and 3.5 million in 2010; that Kindle owners buy one book per month, etc. It's an admittedly rough estimate, but not necessarily an unbelievable one.
Just as important: Mahaney thinks Amazon could get relatively similar profits for each e-book sold that it currently gets for physical books.
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