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Old 02-23-2010, 11:05 PM   #1
Sonist
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HTML5 and Adobe Flash ... Why Can't We Be Friends?

Paul Lopez has some interesting observations on the "standards" debate fueled recently by the lack of Flash on the iPad:

"... But let's look at whose driving the standard. Ian Hickson is from Google and David Hyatt is from Apple, so it should come as no surprise why Adobe is odd man out. Refined standards take a long time to materialize; the Candidate Recommendation stage for HTML5 starts in 2012 and could end as late as 2022, but we're talking software, not hardware.
...
Is HTML5 advancing fast enough to overtake Flash on the web? If the CODEC debate of H.264 vs. Ogg Theora doesn't get resolved soon (H.264 has IP licensing and potential patent infringement issues), we will see a splintering of web browser support for HTML5 in the short term. For now, I'd keep some Flash developers around.
"

It got me thinking: Apple is gearing up to create an iPhone-like (closed) ecosystem around its Macs.

Why else spend resources on the fairly pedestrian Pro apps, like Aperture (I've been trying out v.3)?

In view of this, the "war" Jobs has been waging against Adobe would make better sense.

David Hyatt, an Apple employee, is one of the two editors of the HTML5 standard (there is a bit of a conflict in here, IMO). If HTML5 can break the dominance of Flash, who is nicely positioned to provide the development tools for it? That's right, Apple - there are rumors that just such tools will be unveiled very soon.

Apple can't compete against Flash, but can try to kill it, so it can grab a share of the large development app market.

Apple kind of needs this, since Adobe CS has been moving a half a step ahead on the Windows platform, making Apple less relevant in its traditional (and very lucrative) pro markets. This trend is likely to be reversed, if Apple can topple one of Adobe's crown jewels, Flash. And this will bring in customers not just for the Pro apps, but also for Apple's hardware.

Now, I personally think that the lack of Flash on the iPad will hurt Apple more than it will hurt Adobe. Particularly with Android being the closest competition to Apple's great UI we've ever seen. But it does seem this is part of a larger strategy by Apple.

So, maybe Jobs is less irrational than I thought. Or may be not.
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