, who led Microsoft's work in Tablet PC, eBooks, ClearTypeŽ display technology and digital rights management (DRM), predicted in 1999 the following for the future e-book market (source: Roger Sperberg):
2000 - Microsoft's Reader software for PCs and laptops ships. Customers buy more than one million eBook titles the first year it is available.
2002 - PCs and eBook devices offer screens that are as sharp as paper, with 200 dpi physical resolution, and an effective resolution of about 500 dpi with ClearType.
2003 - eBook devices weigh less than a pound and run for eight hours on a charge. Costs run from $99 for a simple black and white device to about $899 for the most powerful, color magazine-sized machine.
2004 - The Tablet PC becomes a mainstream option for computing. It is a pad-sized device that supports writing as well as eBook reading, and runs powerful computer applications in a slate form factor. More than half of all eReading is done on PCs and laptops, but dedicated eBooks, handheld machines and now Tablets account for the other half.
2005 - eBook title and ePeriodical sales top $1 billion. Many serial publications are given away free with advertising support that now also totals more than $1 billion. An estimated 250 million people regularly read books and newspapers on their PCs, laptops, and palm machines.
Well, heh (*evil* grin on my face), where are we now? Where is the eBook device, sharp as paper, with 200 dpi physical resolution, and an effective resolution of about 500 dpi with ClearType
? And eight hours on a charge
? Do you know of any modern PDA device that can run eight hours straight? Well we have 2004 now. Who knows, maybe eBook sales will increase from the current $10-20m in 2003 to the predicted $1b in 2005
Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to see the predictions come true. It is only funny to see that even M$ can be wrong.