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Old 01-28-2013, 07:58 AM   #132
fjtorres
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckieTigger View Post
New, different, great design does make sense. Even if the technology stays the same.
Uh-huh.
The problem with the HDTV industry is that every niche is already being exploited.
High-end, design-focused TVs?
Bang & Olufsen is there: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-takeover.html
Bose is there: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-takeover.html

OLED? LG is there. Samsung, Sony, too. (And with UltraHD, to boot.)
70-100in LCD? Sharp is there.
Home Theater-grade LCD? Sharp bought out Pioneer, they're there.
Home Theater-grade PDPs? Panasonic owns that one.
Wide-screen aspect ratio optimized for movies? Philips is there.
Good quality at low prices? *Everybody* is there.

Worse, the best components are captive production for vertically integrated companies and what's available to second-tier vendors is second-class/older tech. Which is great stuff but hardly what you can charge premium prices for.

So forget distinctive hardware.

Distinctive content has already been discussed. Everybody has access to te same streaming channels, the same movies and TV shows, and few if any content owners are going to give anybody exclusivity. So unless Apple buys a movie studio or starts one up (like Amazon) they'll be peddling the exact same content anybody else can peddle.

Distinctive software?
Well, sure. That would work.
*If* they can come up with something Microsoft isn't doing, or Sony, or Google, or DirecTV, or Dish, or Roku, or Slingbox... And each of those has a calling card and a user base all their own, not just a brand.

TV is a *mature* business.
And the existing players are well-entrenched with deep installed bases.
So coming in and muscling aside a hundred players, dozens of which have deep resources, isn't the same as cornering the market for 2.5in hard drives for a year to muscle aside Diamond and Creative.

Getting into the TV business today is getting into a cutthroat low-margin dogfight.
It chewed up Intel. It trampled HP. Most display vendors are losing their shirts.

For Apple to get into TV they have to wait for something to disrupt the living room marketplace and open the door to new approaches and business models. (Which is what Microsoft did... six years ago.)

Or, they could go and outright buy one of the industry technology leaders.
They have the money.
And it so happens that one of the top players in LCD tech is in dire straights because of poor marketting: Sharp.

My guess is that if Apple really wants in to the TV business *this year* they're going to have to buy their way in. And it won't be cheap. Probably a net loss for a few years, too.

There's lots of reasons why an Apple HDTV hasn't happened and they are still as valid this year as last. Next year may be different; Japan will start limited ultraHD (4k) broadcasting in 2014 and will begin testing 8k super ultraHD in 2016 so maybe around 2016-2020 a window might open for new players.

But not now.
The "analysts" may not be looking at reality but Apple apparently is.
And staying the heck out is the wise move.

Last edited by fjtorres; 01-28-2013 at 08:04 AM.
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