View Single Post
Old 01-19-2013, 01:36 PM   #139
PatNY
Zennist
PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.PatNY ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
PatNY's Avatar
 
Posts: 913
Karma: 46025978
Join Date: Jul 2010
Device: iPod Touch, Sony PRS-350, Nook HD+ & HD
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sil_liS View Post
CNET talked to Semenza, they don't need to comment on what NYT said, and they are saying that the numbers that Semenza gave are estimates. And estimates are based on information from sources.
No, that is absolutely incorrect. The only thing CNET says is that Semenza is giving revised estimates for the first quarter. But, the NYT's is saying that Semenza has hard numbers for the January orders. The January orders are real, according to the NYT's. And Semenza then took those hard real numbers and used them to revise his estimates for the first quarter.

CNET = estimates (Q1)
NYTs = real numbers (January)

Quote:
No, he lowered his estimates based on lowering the estimates for the sales of last quarter.
Nowhere does it say that in the CNET article. And, in fact, he never said he lowered his estimate for the previous quarter's quantity. He says "It may be dialed back" but he hasn't done it.

Quote:
He doesn't have a better estimate of what the sales were other than lower than 61 million, but near that number, so this uncertainty reflects itself in the estimates for this quarter.
Again, there is no indication whatsoever that he used a possible unknown drop in the previous quarter's quantities to drop the following quarter's estimate by 15-24 million. There's a big hole in your logic. It doesn't even make sense.

Quote:
So Semenza gave an estimate that was 14 million higher than the average. I'm not surprised that he had to make some adjustments.
But he hasn't yet made any adjustments of his Q4 estimate. At least not in any of the links you've provided.


Quote:
I wouldn't dismiss it. I would, as you put it, nitpick it to death. Starting with the fact that one would expect a shortage of devices if the demand would have been underestimated.
How is that nit-picking the hypothetical story? You are essentially agreeing with it, lol.

--Pat

Last edited by PatNY; 01-19-2013 at 01:38 PM.
PatNY is offline