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Old 01-19-2013, 10:42 AM   #137
PatNY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by murraypaul View Post
Yes, as I had already said earlier in the thread.
A story is either believable or not.
Numbers are either reasonable or not.
My personal bet would be that there is at least a 25% chance that Apple's 2013Q2 figures are below their 2012Q2, which were exceptionally high.
35-45 million sounds like a reasonable range.
60-65 (the scaled up numbers in your hypothetical story) do not, too me, seem reasonable, for a non-release, non-holiday, quarter.
I'd put the chance of their 2013Q2 iPhone sales being over 60 million at less than 5%.
Maybe I'm too bearish on iPhone sales, and next week's figures will show something shocking, but that would be my reaction to that story.
But there are no "scaled up numbers" in the hypothetical story. You can't assume that the January orders mentioned in that story are not for latter months as well. The only thing you can assume is that original expectations upon which original orders were based on were too low.

Also, murray, you don't keep these actual sales figures in your head. You've researched them only now. So you're telling me when you first come across this story, you're going to immediately jump on it, even though at the time you really don't know what the Q2 2012 sales numbers are? Or the previous quarter's either?

--Pat

Last edited by PatNY; 01-19-2013 at 10:45 AM.
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