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Old 01-19-2013, 10:10 AM   #136
PatNY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sil_liS View Post
Pat, I am not an Apple disciple, I don't own anything made by Apple, and I don't like their business practice.
Well then I apologize for lumping you in that group.


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Did you notice how the numbers given by NYT are exactly a third of the numbers given by CNET, and they represent 1 month vs. a quarter (3 months)?
Yes, and that might indicate the 65 million quarterly figure used by Nikkei may not be far off the mark, after all.


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The main difference is that according to CNET these numbers are estimates made by DisplaySearch, both the initial one and the current estimated range.
No, CNET is not saying the numbers in the NYTs article are estimates. And the NYT's clearly says the numbers given by Semenza are from supply chain sources. Not estimates. The NYTs says "these numbers came from sources in the supply chain." The numbers themselves came from the sources. Not from Semenza.

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It might even be illegal for them to get direct evidence on how many parts are being ordered because it might lead to insider trading acusations.
I highly doubt it. If anything, it may only be illegal for them to trade on that information until it becomes public.

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As for the 65 million, it is most likely the number of parts ordered for last quarter (since the previous analyst estimate was that Apple sold 61 million iPhone5s in Q4 2012, it seems reasonable).
Still, Semenza cut his own estimate of Q1 2013 sales of iPhones significantly based on Apple's cuts in screen orders.

You didn't answer my question regarding the hypothetical news story. Would you immediately dismiss that as well?

--Pat
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