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Old 01-17-2013, 02:35 PM   #105
murraypaul
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PatNY View Post
No, it was a manner of speaking. Semantics. He is claiming that at some point, Apple told these multiple vendors that they would be ordering 19 million screens in January. And that they subsequently told the vendors to cut the amount by 5 to 8 million. Apple may actually have put through the order in writing initially.
That just isn't what he said.
If he had meant to say that, why didn't he just say it?
You seem happy to place 100% belief in his figures, while disregarding his actual words.

Quote:
But the very fact that they cut the number previously ordered seems to indicate that demand may be lower than they expected.
Bangs head on wall.
It isn't a fact, it is a claim.
The cut their orders because demand is lower.
How do we know demand is lower? Because they cut their orders.

Quote:
The 19 million number is consistent with past quarters in the sense that it is not wildly over the amounts previously sold.
The 11-14 million figure is much more consistent with previous quarters.
19 million is almost twice the average monthly figure for last year.

All the numbers posted as the 'post-cut' figures seem perfectly reasonable, my issue has always been with the 'pre-cut' figures, which I think are ridiculous.
If anyone at Apple though that they would sell 65 million iPhones in Q2 then either:
a) They were smoking crack, or
b) The numbers they are about to release for Q1 must be off the charts.
I don't think either of those is particularly likely.
My guess is that when the Q2 figures are finally released, they will be less than the 3*14 = 42 million upper end of the 'post-cut' estimate.

Quote:
I called my local bakery last week Monday to order 20 pies for a party next week.
Two days later I call back and cut that amount to 10.
My baker tells his staff: "Pat had expected to order 20 pies for a party but cut that amount to 10."

Sounds fine to me.

It's a manner of speaking.
No, you did order 20 pies. You phone him, and ordered them.
If you had planned to, but never actually phoned him, then you would have expected to order 20 pies, but have not actually ordered them.

Quote:
No more blind faith than anyone else who takes at face value a story that has been independently verified and repeated by almost all major news outlets.
Really? How many of them are you saying have independently verified it?
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