Quote:
Originally Posted by PatNY
While many of us are very critical of Apple's practices, I can't remember seeing serious predictions of the company's demise.
|
Can I be the first?
The average life expectancy of a multinational corporation-Fortune 500 or its equivalent-is between 40 and 50 years.
Apple is about 35 years old, so one may guess it will wind things up in the 2020's.
It might be objected that companies which become, for even a short time, the world's largest in market capitalization, last longer. The Pennsylvania Railroad lasted about 114 years. General Electric has lasted over a century. So I could be wrong.
Of course I really have no way of knowing if Apple will be long lived like GM and Ford, or short-lived like one-time Dow components Studebaker, Nash and Hudson, or in-between, like Saab, Chrysler, and, in another industry, Polaroid. But I seriously think the computer design and manufacturing industry is one where high flyers get shot down, so I'm gonna question their ability to make in to 2030. This isn't a stock you want to buy and hold.
If you want more of a reason, it looks like we are entering an era of economic weakness. When more recessions come, a discount outfit like Amazon will be better positioned than a luxury level pricing firm like Apple.