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Old 08-15-2012, 08:09 AM   #16
Kali Yuga
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Yes, the sky is falling, yet again.

No, wait, the author of the article is clueless about statistics.

It is normal for growth percentages to slow as a market matures. If you're going from sales of $40 million to $80 million in one year, that's 100% growth. If you go from $80 million to $120 million the next year, that's the same numerical increase but only 50% growth. I.e. it's absurd to imagine that it will continue to "double every year."

According to the AAP, ebooks make up nearly 1/3 of the adult book market in 2011. They generated more revenues than hardcovers, and nearly as much as trade paper.

The survey in question pointed out that 35% still use an e-Ink device. What's happening, according to the survey, is that more people are using the Fire and the iPad than before. This does not account for overall growth in the number of ebook readers, which certainly hasn't remained static over the past year.

But hey, who cares? We have a narrative of decline to push. Let's not bother with the facts.
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