I agree with Shatzkin's 2 percent figure, give or take a point. That's mainly because, though the Kindle will get more people to notice e-books, its $400 price tag will keep most people from trying it. There may even be a backlash and drop, if we see people who don't know from one format or another buying the cheaper Sony reader, and only then discovering that it cannot access Amazon's books!... or if they discover that Amazon doesn't have the books available that they want for their new Kindle.
I think that figure could rise significantly, however, if Amazon either cut Kindle's cost in half or less, or if it sold its e-books in formats that could be read on devices other than the Kindle. Or both. Sony could also halve its reader cost, or redesign it to read Kindle formats, or both. Either would help.
Selling outside of the U.S. wouldn't hurt, either...
Last edited by Steven Lyle Jordan; 01-09-2008 at 10:47 PM.