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Old 11-21-2010, 06:21 PM   #2
Kali Yuga
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McQuivey is a pretty sharp guy, and I concur there isn't any "magic" in paper. He is also correct to a certain extent about the likely contractions in brick & mortar retail.

However, I do think paper has a few significant differences from other media, notably music and video; namely, those have always required an intermediary device. It isn't a big leap to go from a CD to an MP3. It also isn't a big leap for VHS to DVD, though the relatively small leap from DVD to (legit) downloaded movies is a big mess.

Paper books, on the other hand, have never required an intermediary device. So, that's a whole new layer that people don't associate with reading.

Plus people tend to consume a lot more music or video than read; those are relatively untaxing endeavors. The necessity for an intermediary device is lessened when you only read a handful of books every year.

So, we'll see how this works out, but I think it's going to be more than 5 years before ebooks become the "driver" of the book industry.
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