"The [insert ereader here] will never be a viable product because...[insert ridiculous assumption here].

I see something like this posted somewhere nearly every single day. These people actually hurt the viability of eReaders in general and may even make for a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Today's example:

Prediction #6 for 2010 on an blog about content management:

http://wordofpie.com/2009/12/31/top-predictions-for-2010

-Mark

Agreed.

These people have never used an e-reader, let alone seen one in person, and are generally not those who consider reading an enjoyable pastime.

If they were at least the latter, they could appreciate the benefits that an e-reader offers and would understand that, for long bouts of reading, the mythical iSlate is not the ideal.

So I wrote that post and added a comment.

I have tried a Kindle. My mother got one over the holidays and I played with it before I wrote the post. I also spend quite a bit of time reading. I read on my commute when I go downtown (60 minutes on mass transit) which until recently was daily. I also read every night before going to sleep, a habit that began for me 30 years ago. When I travel, I read quite a bit and have to plan my reading before I go in order to ensure I don't run out of material.

I'm in technology and would love an eReader that would get me there, but it isn't there yet, at least not for me to spend the money. My mother loves hers, but she wasn't able to sell me on it except when it comes to reading large hardbacks. Even then, it is almost a wash for me.

The Kindle and Nook are great in that they represent products that will broaden the market awareness immensely. They are also not mature enough to take that market. Something will replace them. It may not be a tablet computer, but it will be something. I will buy that something most likely because hauling reading material on my commute is a pain.

It just isn't enough of a pain to consider the existing products.

-Pie

i agree that nook and kindle will be replaced, but likely by newer versions or some superrival that comes out and trumps them both. i think people think you were implying the eReader market will die out and be replaced by tablets, and to me that is ridiculous because tablets are a $800-$1000 premium category, and anyone who buys one is not buying them to build a digital book collection.

eReaders are going to have their place much like mp3 players still have a place even though in this day and age you have things like the iphone and other smartphones everywhere. If prices drop to less than $200 next year, then you will see even more of them in consumer hands. Apple's $800 tablet is not going to replace them. It may be nice technology, but it doesn't have practical uses yet. You can play iphone/ipod games and surf cool touch-based websites (like that ikea demonstration), but what do you really need it for? It'll be a nice toy for technophiles, but it won't replace anything. eReaders replace reading real books. The tablets have yet to demonstrate what they will replace.

also, having both an ereader and a digital ebook collection on my computer, i can easily say that reading e-ink is way more preferred to reading on a regular LCD. consumers who are just interested in book reading are not going to opt for the more expensive tablet over the cheaper e-ink experience.

So I wrote that post and added a comment.

I have tried a Kindle. My mother got one over the holidays and I played with it before I wrote the post. I also spend quite a bit of time reading. I read on my commute when I go downtown (60 minutes on mass transit) which until recently was daily. I also read every night before going to sleep, a habit that began for me 30 years ago. When I travel, I read quite a bit and have to plan my reading before I go in order to ensure I don't run out of material.

I'm in technology and would love an eReader that would get me there, but it isn't there yet, at least not for me to spend the money. My mother loves hers, but she wasn't able to sell me on it except when it comes to reading large hardbacks. Even then, it is almost a wash for me.

The Kindle and Nook are great in that they represent products that will broaden the market awareness immensely. They are also not mature enough to take that market. Something will replace them. It may not be a tablet computer, but it will be something. I will buy that something most likely because hauling reading material on my commute is a pain.

It just isn't enough of a pain to consider the existing products.

-Pie

Everything currently new will be replaced, eventually, I"m sure. Isn't that the way of the world?

In the meantime for the last 1 1/2 yrs, I've happily been reading e-books.....I have almost 1000 on my K1 right now. Public domain, bought from amazon, freebies.....the choice is mine on what to read, and where.

Keep on waiting for the "newest" version.

That is the case for sure. I own a Nook and a TabletPC, on which I have been reading magazines for several years now (the tablet is a Motion Computing, 'keyboard-less' model - a slate). Sure the color and the size are great (it has a 12.1" screen) but as others mentioned, there is no comparison between the LCD and the e-ink screen on the Nook. The Nook is so much easier on the eyes and very paper like. The tablet is nothing like that. Plus I get a week of usage on the Nook battery, compared to a couple hours with the Motion Computing unit that does make noises and does generate heat (thinks the Nook does NOT make at all).
For sure a device will replace the Kindle/Nook in the future. The same way Flash based players replaced your 400-disc CD Changer unit. The same way computers replaced typewriters. Smartphones replaced PDAs. This is the same with any product/technology.
Something will replace what we know as computers today. It is a matter of time.
An e-reader is no different than any other piece of technology in that respect. And as others I do think it is as of today a much better alternative for reading, when compared to any sort/type of computer available in the market.

Cheers!

CR

also, having both an ereader and a digital ebook collection on my computer, i can easily say that reading e-ink is way more preferred to reading on a regular LCD. consumers who are just interested in book reading are not going to opt for the more expensive tablet over the cheaper e-ink experience.

I totally agree. I love my gadgets and am looking forward to seeing what the new Internet tablets are going to be like - but not for doing any serious reading on - shudder!

I've read ebooks on netbooks, laptops, macbook, ipod touch and e-ink devices and you can't beat e-ink for serious reading. I find my PocketBook 360 is actually more comfortable than reading a paperbook as I can read one-handed for lengthy sessions (even rotating the screen so I can swap between either hand which is necessary with a fidgety toddler) and have my entire collection of books right there to read.

I can only see ebook dedicated devices going from strength to strength as people cotton on to just how great they are. I can remember my Dad saying he didn't want a computer about 10 years ago and her argued adamantly about why would he want one - huh now he has a computer and a laptop and is obsessed with his digital music collection.

So, you're making predictions about the future of a device because it doesn't suit YOU? Illogical argument if I've ever seen one. All I see in your blog is "Me", "me", "I", "me". Facts, those are the little things done with good amounts of research and generally don't contain the possessive form of "Me" and "I".

FACT: No current LCD closely mimics paper as can the eInk screen. For those that read lots, read often, and for long periods, nothing short of real paper can compare.

FACT: Without the eInk screen your killer tablet will be a battery killer, nothing more.

FACT: Without the eInk screen your killer tablet will be a battery killer, nothing more.

As long as battery life continues to be considered ever important with mobile devices, a 5-7hr tablet is going to find a limited market, I agree.

In the same sort of time frame as these tablets, color eInk is likely to appear in actual products, and the speed of the displays has been improving to catch up as well (although unless I have video, I couldn't care less if the refresh was 0.3 or 0.2 seconds).

Yes, my predictions are based upon my experience and from following the development of eReaders over the course of years. I didn't do exhaustive research, but I took what I knew and made a prediction.

I don't see why it is unreasonable to predict that a new product will come out that will make the Kindle and Nook obsolete. If it doesn't happen in 2010, it will happen in 2011. That is basic technological advancement these days.

It may not be a tablet. That was a guess based upon what I knew might actually be released in 2010. Battery and readability are hurdles, but until a product is released, I'm not going to say that the issues won't be addressed. I also suspect there will be at least one product launch this year that none of us are expecting that will be impressive.

Take a step back. What would you like to see improved in the eReader you have now? Now consider that someone out there has probably already thought of those, and other features, that could significantly raise the bar.

I want the prediction to come true. Not to hurt people that have Nooks or Kindles, but to broaden the market buy-in for the products and to provide me with an eReader that I can go to my friends with and say, "You have to get this."

I love to read. I just want a better eReader before I spend the money and I think that a better solution will show up.

I love to read. I just want a better eReader before I spend the money and I think that a better solution will show up.

But here's the thing. You either want to read what you want, when you want, now, or wait until the perfect device comes along........and for some people, that will never happen. There will always be 'something missing'.

You do realize, that with the Sony (and Kindle and others but I'm not going there now) you can download library ebooks? To your computer, then sideload to your device. No running to the library, no worrying about late fees. They close automatically at the end of the period. The selection of epub and pdf are growing daily. Whats not to love about that?

The Kindle may not be to your taste, fine. The nook has its growing pain problems, as all new devices do.

But somewhere out there, there is a reader that would enrich your life tremendously, if you are the reader you say you are.

The choice is yours, of course. But an article like yours does nothing to advance the cause. Its a personal opinion disguised as fact.

I want the prediction to come true. Not to hurt people that have Nooks or Kindles, but to broaden the market buy-in for the products and to provide me with an eReader that I can go to my friends with and say, "You have to get this."

I love to read. I just want a better eReader before I spend the money and I think that a better solution will show up.

Then enlighten the rest of us... what is it that you are waiting for that isn't handled by the market currently? And is it a content issue or a device issue?

You've been saying you haven't been swayed, but you don't say what the deal-breakers are.

But here's the thing. You either want to read what you want, when you want, now, or wait until the perfect device comes along........and for some people, that will never happen. There will always be 'something missing'.

I realize that something will always be missing. My smart phone doesn't do everything I want, but it cleared a threshold and now I have one. Everyone has a different line that lowers over time. Everyone has a different combination of features, cost, and miscellaneous factors that will impact the point that they will adopt a new technology.

The prediction, if you go back to it, doesn't say that the existing products stink. The "I hope you saved your receipt," line was for humor and not meant as an insult to those that already bought one, which includes my mother.

I just think that something better will come out this year. Simple.

If my prediction is correct and something better does come out, how is that bad? Won't it make your life better?

Note on features: It isn't about specific features as it is a combination that will make the difference. If they got the copyright stuff figured-out and I could load my existing library I would pay quite a bit for that.

This is probably my last post on this thread as I'm not sure what else new I could add. Not trying to hurt any "cause".

The current eReaders, to use an rough analogy from the music industry, are either 8-tracks or CDs. Both were improvements on the old, but only one wasn't quickly supplanted. The current crop is young, so I'm predicting that they are akin to the 8-track. A new tech that will be replaced shortly by the equivalent of the cassette tape. I may be wrong and it could be equivalent to the CD and I'll be moving my library there in the future. Time will tell.

-Pie

I've never really posted before, but I had never had an e-reader before buying my Nook. I was fortunate enough to receive mine before Christmas and I have to say that being a complete amateur I'm very happy with my purchase. The reason we wanted an e-reader is because my husband and I live in our RV full-time and don't have the room to store lots of books. We both enjoy reading and every year we spend lots of money on books then give them away because we don't have the room to keep them. Many times we'd love to refer back to a book we've read, but don't have it because we gave it away already.

In my opinion everything you buy, computers, cars, appliances, etc., will be outdated, updated or replaced with better models as technology improves and gets better, and e-readers are no different. You just have to decide if you want to buy what works best for you at the time or always sit back and wait for something better and have nothing. Again this is just my opinion. We enjoy all the helpful information on this forum and our next purchase is buying a second e-reader.

I just think that something better will come out this year. Simple.

If my prediction is correct and something better does come out, how is that bad? Won't it make your life better?

If they got the copyright stuff figured-out and I could load my existing library I would pay quite a bit for that.

This is probably my last post on this thread as I'm not sure what else new I could add. Not trying to hurt any "cause".

The current eReaders, to use an rough analogy from the music industry, are either 8-tracks or CDs. Both were improvements on the old, but only one wasn't quickly supplanted. The current crop is young, so I'm predicting that they are akin to the 8-track. A new tech that will be replaced shortly by the equivalent of the cassette tape. I may be wrong and it could be equivalent to the CD and I'll be moving my library there in the future. Time will tell.

-Pie

what we're trying to get across here, and failing, I think........is that while you are waiting for the features you want, copyright, etc, you are missing out on the great features that are already there.

All your books at your fingertips, all the time

Built in dictionary.

Automatic bookmarking.

Library usage.

Adjustable font.

If I wanted........instant downloading from anywhere, anytime.

Ability to re-read authors whos writings have withstood the test of time.......for free.

I just want to read, and re-read. Thats all.

How can anything come out, that could be better than that?

Yes, my predictions are based upon my experience and from following the development of eReaders over the course of years. I didn't do exhaustive research, but I took what I knew and made a prediction.Sooo, again, you're making a prediction of the demise of these products, but sitting on the sidelines?

I don't see why it is unreasonable to predict that a new product will come out that will make the Kindle and Nook obsolete. If it doesn't happen in 2010, it will happen in 2011. That is basic technological advancement these days.Even a complete technophobe could tell you the current technology will either be replaced, or evolve. How is your "prediction" enlightening in the slightest?

It may not be a tablet. That was a guess based upon what I knew might actually be released in 2010. Battery and readability are hurdles, but until a product is released, I'm not going to say that the issues won't be addressed. I also suspect there will be at least one product launch this year that none of us are expecting that will be impressive.Now you're backpedalling from your blog. First, it was the tablet that will kill the Kindle and nook. Now, it may not be a tablet at all. Come on Nostradomus, I want to know what this thing none of us is expecting that will launch this year.

Take a step back. What would you like to see improved in the eReader you have now? Now consider that someone out there has probably already thought of those, and other features, that could significantly raise the bar.Hmm, not a whole lot. I can read, and do so for days, on my Sony PRS-600. I don't want email. The Internet can take a hike while I'm reading. I don't want it to give me voice prompted, GPS assisted, directions to the loo. I just want to read books, and do so for hours on end without having to look at the battery meter incessantly.

I want the prediction to come true. Not to hurt people that have Nooks or Kindles, but to broaden the market buy-in for the products and to provide me with an eReader that I can go to my friends with and say, "You have to get this."I hate to say it, but your prediction of a tablet killing the current gen eReaders is as likely to become real as me inheriting $1M. From your "You have to get this." line, it seems you're more in love with the technology than with the pure act of reading. Or, perhaps, you're too chicken to just jump in and say "Screw it, I'm gonna do this!".

I love to read. I just want a better eReader before I spend the money and I think that a better solution will show up.If you really do love to read, as you say you do, the current gen readers would suit your purposes just fine. They perform their intended purpose, and that is to put a book in front of you in electronic form. Nothing more, nothing less; just reading.

I realize that something will always be missing. My smart phone doesn't do everything I want, but it cleared a threshold and now I have one. Everyone has a different line that lowers over time. Everyone has a different combination of features, cost, and miscellaneous factors that will impact the point that they will adopt a new technology.Again, more in love with the technology. Get off the fence and commit!

The prediction, if you go back to it, doesn't say that the existing products stink. The "I hope you saved your receipt," line was for humor and not meant as an insult to those that already bought one, which includes my mother.Let's take a look at that prediction.

The Kindle and Nook Will Die: I hope you saved your receipt. Tablets are coming. Why get a Kindle or any other option when a tablet will knock them dead? I think that will be next year’s big gift and people will regret jumping into the digital reader water quite so fast.
Your poorly delivered joke aside, every other line slams both the devices and the owners. How, and in what other universe, could your words not be construed to mean the existing products stink?

I just think that something better will come out this year. Simple.Hooray for that! Something better always comes out, just how long do you wait around until it's "perfect"?

If my prediction is correct and something better does come out, how is that bad? Won't it make your life better?There's nothing bad about something new and better coming out, that's technological evolution and cannot be stopped, nor would I want to. Now, as for making my life better, well, if you need technology to make your life better I'd have to question the quality of your existing life. I could live on the side of a mountain, cutoff from all technology and be just fine. Does some of the current tech make my life easier? Sure. Do I NEED it in order to live? Not at all.

Note on features: It isn't about specific features as it is a combination that will make the difference. If they got the copyright stuff figured-out and I could load my existing library I would pay quite a bit for that.What's your existing library composed of?

This is probably my last post on this thread as I'm not sure what else new I could add. Not trying to hurt any "cause".You didn't expect to post a blog, then come to a site and defend your views without having some lively debate did you? Come on, this is a site for readers and as such will be the type to come back at you with arguments. There is no "cause" here, except for the love of reading and to do so on devices that facilitate reading with portability and ease.


/general rant
And for the love of God, why is the Apple tablet always being brought up as the new eReader? Apple has not confirmed, nor denied, the existence of the product, yet people are wildly speculating about its capabilities. I like Apple products quite a bit, but I have absolutely no delusions it will primarily be a reader, not unless they got an early exclusive on color eInk screens.

I love the tablet arguments that people use against ereaders and just get all weak in the knees whenever I'm told I was dumb for adopting technology early. There are a few arguments that authors of blogs (like the one being contested in this thread) fail to understand:

1 - Early adopters of technology help the market to realize trends, and thereby spend more money on future development and better products. Advising people that they should have held on to their receipts is ignorant and completely devoid of any economic understanding. The money I and many others spent on a Kindle 1 gave Amazon a reason to develop the Kindle 2 and DX. The success of the Sony readers lead Amazon into the market. The success of the Kindles brought B&N into the market with the Nook. All of these products will spark the next wave. When people invest in the existing tech regardless of whether it is "perfect" they help the manufacturers to realize the validity of the product, which will lead to future improvements to the initial designs. Jumping into the existing tech - even when it's not perfect - is an intelligent decision if you support the concepts of the technology and hope that it can be improved upon. Sitting on the fence and pointing fingers at those of us who support the market does nothing but give you weird dimples in your ass.

2 - Not everyone who reads digital content wants an all-in-one device like a tablet. Many - if not a vast majority - of us who purchased ereaders want very simply to read. I don't need gps or internet chat or color video playback or music. I want to read on a device that feels natural, fades into the background, and doesn't distract me from the joys of reading. If a new tablet came out that added 101 additional options, I probably wouldn't buy it because I don't need all of the additional bells and whistles, i.e. I would not support the further development of that kind of reading device because it's no longer about reading. Simply put, that device would NOT suite my needs. If another device comes out that further improves the reading experience, I will gladly put up the money to support those improvements.

The author of the blog states that he reads very often. I congratulate him on that, but I sincerely wonder if he understands the level of eyestrain he will endure if he choses a "tablet" over an e-ink display. Knowing how LCD and OLED screens affect the eyes, I would never even imagine reading as much on those devices as I do on my ereader. I suppose it's great if you have an imaginary apple table that cost you $1000 to read books on and play music and carry files and check email and update facebook and twitterfy your life to the world while youtubing a guy getting kicked in the kiwis.....but while you're recharging the device every night and wondering why your eyesight is failing.....those of us with dedicated ereaders will still be reading. And we'll still be able to do all the other stuff....on our laptops.

And for the love of God, why is the Apple tablet always being brought up as the new eReader?

Wasn't the tablet PC supposed to be the new eReader in 2001? ;) Some "experts" even predicted that they would be priced under $200, which of course was a joke. I remember reading the reviews in computer magazines and thinking "Oh, well, it sounded like a nice idea at the time..." Sure, there are lighter models now, but they can still weigh a lot, and the price and battery life aren't attractive to me.

I realize that something will always be missing. My smart phone doesn't do everything I want, but it cleared a threshold and now I have one. Everyone has a different line that lowers over time. Everyone has a different combination of features, cost, and miscellaneous factors that will impact the point that they will adopt a new technology.

The prediction, if you go back to it, doesn't say that the existing products stink. The "I hope you saved your receipt," line was for humor and not meant as an insult to those that already bought one, which includes my mother.

I just think that something better will come out this year. Simple.

If my prediction is correct and something better does come out, how is that bad? Won't it make your life better?

Note on features: It isn't about specific features as it is a combination that will make the difference. If they got the copyright stuff figured-out and I could load my existing library I would pay quite a bit for that.

This is probably my last post on this thread as I'm not sure what else new I could add. Not trying to hurt any "cause".

The current eReaders, to use an rough analogy from the music industry, are either 8-tracks or CDs. Both were improvements on the old, but only one wasn't quickly supplanted. The current crop is young, so I'm predicting that they are akin to the 8-track. A new tech that will be replaced shortly by the equivalent of the cassette tape. I may be wrong and it could be equivalent to the CD and I'll be moving my library there in the future. Time will tell.

-Pie

Of course, it is possible that the current crop of e-readers is vinyl, which had a long shelf life, was one of the first technologies, and still has a niche.

To me, e-readers could be improved, but I think the new and improved versions will still use some form of e-ink AND will be made more cheaply to inspire wide adoption.

I was shocked when I got my Kindle about the clarity of the display and how much I enjoyed reading on it. I have NEVER enjoyed reading anything of great length on a backlit display. The Kindle was completely different.

I'm with Pie on infrastructure not being there, but considering recent developments in other digital media (audio and video) I'm afraid we won't get to the point where you could mail all your physical books and the appropriate titles will be automatically added to your online library, neither do I foresee the swell integration between major online ebooks stores and readers marketed by their competitors. So I don't really see the reason to hold back.

If you like to read there's no better way than the current e-ink readers. While the technology is relatively new (can't remember when the PRS-500 came out in US -- was it 2005 or 2006?) to all markets besides Japan, you already have a splendid selection of screen sizes, features and prices to fit everyones likes.

I'm afraid we won't get to the point where you could mail all your physical books and the appropriate titles will be automatically added to your online library


That didn't happen with music, movies, or games, and it won't happen with books. I for one, have no problems re-purchasing many of the books that I already own physically, since it's reasonably cheap and I would only do it for my absolute favorites.

eReaders are pretty much here to stay. Even if they are replaced, they will be replaced by technology that is better and still essentially doing what it's supposed to do - i.e. replace physical books. The digital age is awesome. :)

I think Pie's "prediction" would incite less rage if he didn't say tablets (specifically the apple tablet) would replace the current generation of eReaders. But if he merely stated the obvious (that the current generation would be replaced by a new generation with cooler features) then people would call him out on it.

These people actually hurt the viability of eReaders in general and may even make for a self-fulfilling prophecy.



I don't really believe this is true.

Mr. Pie, you haven't adequately stated what it is about current eReaders that you don't like.

That didn't happen with music, movies, or games, and it won't happen with books.

Uhm, isn't it what I said just before what you've quoted?

... considering recent developments in other digital media (audio and video) I'm afraid we won't ...