If you compare the Amazon Kindle and the Sony Reader using the Innosight Disrupt-O-Meter (http://www.forbes.com/claytonchristensen/2008/01/29/disruptometer-amazon-sony-lead-clayton-in_sa_0129claytonchristensen_inl.html) (which shows how disruptive (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_technology) various technological developments may be to the market, at least in theory), both score well above the halfway mark. But the Kindle scores better, and here is why:

The device itself is nothing new, but the Kindle publishing platform, harnessing Amazon's distribution power, has the potential to disrupt the way digital content is distributed and produced. Always-on, high-speed wireless, subsidized by subscription fees, allows ease of use for customers buying books or subscribing to magazines, newspapers or blogs. Also, Kindle's easy-to-use publishing platform is open to any content provider who wants to offer something for sale.

Of course we knew all along that Whispernet and Digital Text Platform are two killer features, but do you think they are enough for the Kindle to gain a stronger foothold and bump the older, once-better technology p-paper into oblivion?

Related: Amazon Kindle - driving lots of traffic to Amazon (http://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19778)

Interesting article. So what do owners of both the Kindle and Sony Reader think of on Mobile Read ?

I think they nailed it pretty well. But I don't think there's any of fear of paper books going away anytime soon.

The Kindle has a very "ipod" like quality to it. It's not that it's the first there, and it's not that it is necessarily the best - but for the first time the average user can easily use and find a lot of content for. And it's gotten the public's attention and excitement.

What's working against it, however, is Amazon not being able to remotely keep up with demand. That works well for game systems, but I'm afraid they'll lose some important momentum due to lack of availability.

Whispernet is only a killer feature in you happen to live in the USA, so they're not likely to take over the world quite yet!

Whispernet is only a killer feature in you happen to live in the USA, so they're not likely to take over the world quite yet!

But look at it this way. Even if you are not a Kindle fan, Sony and all the other competitors are bound to start including wifi in their own readers just to compete.

Interesting item in the Teleread (http://www.teleread.org/blog/2008/01/30/wifi-on-the-kindle-via-a-tivo-adapter-someday/) blog today: "Discussion in the jkOnTheRun blog area over the kind of E Ink the Kindle is using—apparently not the second-gen Vizplex variety found on the Sony PRS-505." I wonder how that will affect love of Kindle once a comparison can be made.

But look at it this way. Even if you are not a Kindle fan, Sony and all the other competitors are bound to start including wifi in their own readers just to compete.

I hope they don't. Or at least they do 2 flavours, with and without. I don't need it and I don't need it to affect a size of the reader let alone fugly keyboards and shorter battery life.
Sony, if you hear me, please don't do it!

Of course we knew all along that Whispernet and Digital Text Platform are two killer features, but do you think they are enough for the Kindle to gain a stronger foothold and bump the older, once-better technology p-paper into oblivion?*sigh*

I really wish folks would stop saying things like "bump p-paper into oblivion". Paper isn't going away. Paper books aren't going away. Treating ebooks and paper books as "one or the other" instead of "both" just muddies the emotional waters and obscures the issues.

What's next? "Death to the p-book infidels!"? "eInk and no quarter!"?
Sheesh... :rolleyes:
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Dennis

But look at it this way. Even if you are not a Kindle fan, Sony and all the other competitors are bound to start including wifi in their own readers just to compete.

Main problem in the UK is that unless you live in a big city, wifi hotspots are few and far between -- you can't exactly download a book wherever you are. Not much point selling a reader with wifi if there's no network to connect to. I guess it could be done with cellphone technology, but that would make for a different sort of reader, I guess.

Interesting item in the Teleread (http://http://www.teleread.org/blog/2008/01/30/wifi-on-the-kindle-via-a-tivo-adapter-someday/) blog today: "Discussion in the jkOnTheRun blog area over the kind of E Ink the Kindle is using—apparently not the second-gen Vizplex variety found on the Sony PRS-505." I wonder how that will affect love of Kindle once a comparison can be made.

there is a lot of misinformation out there. Do not believe everything you read. The display is the same but the controller driving the display is older (only 4 gray levels instead of Sony's 8).

Dale

As nice as the Kindle service may be, I think the one thing keeping it from "taking the market" is the expensive and ungainly-looking reader itself. I've mentioned elsewhere that the Kindle seems like a proof-of-concept or prototype device. If someone manages to create a truly attractive device, especially at a cheaper form factor (or at least better usability with aesthetics), I can see major "disruption" coming on.

Similarly, if Amazon opens up the Kindle system to other hardware, reader-emulators and other wireless access methods, I see disruption aplenty.

And speaking of Forbes' Disrupt-o-meter: I'm not sure I agree with all of their points. For instance, it states that Sony's reader and Connect store lack differentiation from the competition, and I disagree there: Sony's reader is by far more attractive than the other hardware out there, costs significantly less than its closest competitors, and has major brand recognition backing it up. The claim that Kindle's business model "might make it susceptible to competition from Apple" is highly speculative, and I don't see how that makes it a more disruptive influence.

The second thing I saw that impressed me is the new Sony Reader. I must admit that the legibility of the e-Ink screen was much better than that of the Kindle and I can see this working even in the low lighting areas in my house. I was also taken with how much smaller that Reader is compared to the Kindle and while there is no option for purchasing ebooks from the device like the Kindle can do it is a very nice ebook reader.

http://jkontherun.blogs.com/jkontherun/2008/01/im-in-trouble-.html

As nice as the Kindle service may be, I think the one thing keeping it from "taking the market" is the expensive and ungainly-looking reader itself. I've mentioned elsewhere that the Kindle seems like a proof-of-concept or prototype device. If someone manages to create a truly attractive device, especially at a cheaper form factor (or at least better usability with aesthetics), I can see major "disruption" coming on.

Similarly, if Amazon opens up the Kindle system to other hardware, reader-emulators and other wireless access methods, I see disruption aplenty.

And speaking of Forbes' Disrupt-o-meter: I'm not sure I agree with all of their points. For instance, it states that Sony's reader and Connect store lack differentiation from the competition, and I disagree there: Sony's reader is by far more attractive than the other hardware out there, costs significantly less than its closest competitors, and has major brand recognition backing it up. The claim that Kindle's business model "might make it susceptible to competition from Apple" is highly speculative, and I don't see how that makes it a more disruptive influence.
What would work very well is an add-on module for the Sony that gives a keyboard and wifi that can be removed so we have the sleek design we have now when the keyboard and wifi are not needed.

The first-gen Kindle strikes me as being more of a Diamond Rio PMP300 than an iPod. It's a strong proof of concept, but at the same time, it's really clunky.

I'm looking forward to the next generation Kindle, as well as Sony's response to it.

I agree that the Kindle, as a device, is pretty bad looking and I was sure that I would dislike using it for that reason alone. But since I got it a month ago the looks have become irrelevant: I am looking at the text I am reading, not the device. Looks and allure are, to be sure, important, but the Kindle's appearance has had little effect on its utility and that is what is crucial. Of course, I use a MotoQ and have for almost 2 years, and as you all know it is certainly no beauty either.

I'm looking forward to the next generation Kindle, as well as Sony's response to it.

I'm kinda hoping Sony volunteers to make the next-generation Kindle...

there is a lot of misinformation out there. Do not believe everything you read. The display is the same but the controller driving the display is older (only 4 gray levels instead of Sony's 8).

Dale


I first read that at JKRun a couple of weeks ago but I didn't feel like getting into an argument. There is a lot of misinformation on the internet about everything. BTW it's not the JKRun blog that started the misinformation but it was in the comments section.

*sigh*

I really wish folks would stop saying things like "bump p-paper into oblivion". Paper isn't going away. Paper books aren't going away. Treating ebooks and paper books as "one or the other" instead of "both" just muddies the emotional waters and obscures the issues.

This is taken out of context. You must read it in the context of "disruptive" technology (which is what this thread is about). From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_technology):

A disruptive technology or disruptive innovation is a technological innovation, product, or service that uses a "disruptive" strategy, rather than a "sustaining" strategy, to overturn the existing dominant technologies or status quo products in a market... The concept shares many similarities with biological evolution...

Unresolved examples of technologies promoted as 'disruptive innovations'

* ebooks vs. paper books

I don't know about the disruption of paperback books. E-readers will impact them. A tipping point may occur when/if the Sony or Kindle reader hits $100 or less. Right now, frequent travellers will ultimately move to an e-reader and move away from paper. "Where can I get one of those?" has been asked of me so often that I'm thinking about asking Sony for a sales commision. Bottomline is who wants to retain dozens of used, yellowing pulp fiction paperbacks? E-books are cheaper, store easier and read just as well (if not better because of font changing) than a paperback. Just as downloadable MP3's will kill CD sales (already in rapid decline), ebooks will have a similar impact on paper. Not a total kill, but definitely such an impact that e-sales will become available in bookstores ultimately, in my opinion.

The Kindle download system does away with the need for a bookstore, so I disagree with you about ebook sales in a store.

Bottomline is who wants to retain dozens of used, yellowing pulp fiction paperbacks?

I can think of quite a few people I know who would defend their dozens (nay, thousands!) of used, yellowing pulp fiction paperbacks to the death! :)

This is taken out of context. You must read it in the context of "disruptive" technology (which is what this thread is about). From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_technology):I understand the context. I still disagree with the comment, for the reasons stated.
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Dennis

I can think of quite a few people I know who would defend their dozens (nay, thousands!) of used, yellowing pulp fiction paperbacks to the death! :)<Raises hand>

Especially since a lot of mine haven't seen ebook republication.
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Dennis

I can think of quite a few people I know who would defend their dozens (nay, thousands!) of used, yellowing pulp fiction paperbacks to the death! :)

I would, too... unless I could get them electronically. My number is "hundreds of," so turning that load of pulp into a single drive's worth of content would be sub-zero.

Death to the papyrus eaters of the West!

Long live the Mighty Electro-Phoretic Priests and their gifts from the Gods!


All right, now that everyone knows where I stand (would rather burn most of my books for warmth than pack and move them again), I have to sat that I agree that the Kindle could be more disruptive.

Amazon is all ready seen as a paradigm shaker, and they have little to no bad press WRT hardware or customer service (to wods: Root Kit) to overcome.

Someone more tech savvy: could a mini-USB dongle be added to a Reader 500/505? Do not see such a need for a keyboard, but wifi would be nice, especially for travelers.

As dumb as the Kindle looks, I can see it being more comforting to people--the Reader is nearly too slick, too miminalist for some people to not be intimidated. The big buttons, chunky profile, and keyboard have a 'down-home' feel to them.

I can see the Kindle winning, if this is a competition, though I don't know that I'd be happy about it.

Death to the papyrus eaters of the West!

Long live the Mighty Electro-Phoretic Priests and their gifts from the Gods!

All right, now that everyone knows where I stand (would rather burn most of my books for warmth than pack and move them again), I have to sat that I agree that the Kindle could be more disruptive.I could live with packing and moving the books. The 1,500 or so vinyl LP records are another matter. :p

Amazon is all ready seen as a paradigm shaker, and they have little to no bad press WRT hardware or customer service (to words: Root Kit) to overcome.<chuckle>

I don't think folks are worried about a root kit on the PRS-505. (But there's that old devil DRM raising it's ugly head again...)

Someone more tech savvy: could a mini-USB dongle be added to a Reader 500/505? Do not see such a need for a keyboard, but wifi would be nice, especially for travelers.The question isn't whether you can attach a keyboard, but what you would do with it if you did.

Having a keyboard implies something running that you can type into. I'm not sure that exists for the Sony Reader. (Someone with a Reader will corret me if I'm mistaken.)

Someone else here had a pointer to a build for the iRex iLiad of Beaver, a lightweight Linux based text editor. If you have something like that, a keyboard becomes a useful item.

As dumb as the Kindle looks, I can see it being more comforting to people--the Reader is nearly too slick, too miminalist for some people to not be intimidated. The big buttons, chunky profile, and keyboard have a 'down-home' feel to them.

I can see the Kindle winning, if this is a competition, though I don't know that I'd be happy about it.If the Kindle wins (and there are early indications it may be doing so), it will be because of Amazon's marketing prowess. Amazon already has the distribution infrastructure in palce to provide content, and the last I knew had something like four times as much content for the Kindle as the Sony Connect store had for the Reader. I believe that Amazon's store is easier to deal with, too, but since I don't have either device, I have no direct experience in using them. Current Kindle and Sony Reader owners can chime in on this.

Apple has demonstrated with their product line that design sells. I agree the Kindle could look better, but I don't see questionable product design as being a serious factor at this stage. The market is still nascent. The question on the Kindle isn't how good it looks, but rather how easy it is to use. If you get one for your non-technical (or perhaps negative-technical) parents, can they download and read their newspaper, or get content from Amazon's store without calling you for assistance?

If they can, it's a winner. If not, it loses, regardless of how stylish the package is.
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Dennis

Apple has demonstrated with their product line that design sells. I agree the Kindle could look better, but I don't see questionable product design as being a serious factor at this stage. The market is still nascent. The question on the Kindle isn't how good it looks, but rather how easy it is to use. If you get one for your non-technical (or perhaps negative-technical) parents, can they download and read their newspaper, or get content from Amazon's store without calling you for assistance?

If they can, it's a winner. If not, it loses, regardless of how stylish the package is.

The Kindle has two other factors against it, though. One is its lack of availability in any physical store, making it pretty hard to check it out before you buy. And this impacts the second thing, which is its price, something a lot of people won't accept in a device that they cannot physically see or touch before they cough up the dough for it.

Unless Amazon either lowers the price to a more comfortable point, or announces that everyone can go see a Kindle at Best Buy or someplace, there will continue to be resistance against it.

WRT a keyboard and USB dongle for the 505, if the device could connect wirelessly to the web, you could use the keyboard to interact on websites (perhaps to buy more books). Or to e-mail authors and ask them why their books aren't available as e-books...

The Kindle has two other factors against it, though. One is its lack of availability in any physical store, making it pretty hard to check it out before you buy. And this impacts the second thing, which is its price, something a lot of people won't accept in a device that they cannot physically see or touch before they cough up the dough for it.

Unless Amazon either lowers the price to a more comfortable point, or announces that everyone can go see a Kindle at Best Buy or someplace, there will continue to be resistance against it.Since Amazon can't seem to make them fast enough to meet demand, I don't think that's a meaningful factor at the moment.

But I suspect the total number of Kindles sold is in the tens of thousands, at best, and it really needs to be in the hundreds of thousands to be a long term success from Amazon's perspective.

If Amazon can get sales in that range, we may see a price drop, for reasons we've discussed elsewhere. Of course, we'll also see unhappiness from Kindle users who bought at the higher price point when a price drop occurs... :p

WRT a keyboard and USB dongle for the 505, if the device could connect wirelessly to the web, you could use the keyboard to interact on websites (perhaps to buy more books). Or to e-mail authors and ask them why their books aren't available as e-books...Sure. If software existed for the 505 to let you get content from the web or email authors. Does it?

That's my major problem with dedicated readers: what they don't do. For the prices charged, I need more functionality.
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Dennis

Regarding PRS-50* add-ons:

I really do not need a keyboard. I *do* see the ease of searching for a new book via wifi as a darn nifty thing, so a USB dongle would be useful. So far as I know, there is a basic system of interface on the device that I think could be used to work the wifi purchasing. If I am not mistaken, there are hacks available on MobileRead for clocks and other apps that utlise the 5-way navigator.

Again, I LOVE MY READER. I do not see the lack of wifi as a detriment but I can see how that feature could sway people toward the Kindle. With web access to periodicals, the Kindle makes That being said, colour screens will be crucial to such a step; Comics and magazine would be great in colour, and it could help in the non-fiction department.

Amazon does seem to have the upperhand in marketing. Every time I look at Amazon.com, cannot escape seeing the Kindle. Visit www.sony.com, and I get all itchy. Dang, but that site is too slick for its own good. However, as Steve points out, many people appreciate having a device in their hot little hands. Especially one that costs $400.

If Nate's post about both readers entering the UK market is true (sorry I can't imbed links yet), then we'll really have a neat contest on our hands.

SONY has gone 1/2 in its format battles. Am eager to see how round 3 works out.