Mike Elgan (http://computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9059258), over at ComputerWorld (http://computerworld.com), has this theory (http://computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9059258)that aPple might announce a new Iphone this summer. Here's why.

1. Sales are trending down.
The Financial Times reports that iPhone sales in the U.K. fell below expectations in the previous quarter. Apple reportedly sold 190,000 iPhones in the U.K. since its launch Nov. 9, which is less than the carrier's target of 200,000 and Gartner's estimate of 350,000 to 400,000. Overall, European sales are similarly below projections.

Apple reportedly lowered projected shipments of iPhones for the current quarter (from January through March) from 2 million iPhones to between 1 million and 1.2 million (based on information from Taiwanese iPhone component suppliers).

2. A prediction of 10 million sold by the end of 2008.
Here's the most interesting bit: Given all this data pointing to high inventory, lowered shipments and "disappointing" sales, why did Apple's Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer say Tuesday that Apple "felt confident" about reaching its goal of 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008?

I think he might be right.

wouldn't surprise me

Mhh, if they just sell them at the same rate as of now, they should reach that target - especially as they sign-up more and more countries.

Speaking of a new release of the iPhone: Apple usually has an approx 1.5 year product cycle, so I would not be surprised to see a new iPhone this year. But who knows, it's just speculation and why should this "Mike Elgan" know better? He has no better information than my mother :-) just common sense...

Mike Elgan has no clue what he's talking about. He just makes stuff up.

Mike Elgan’s Moronic Tirade on the iPhone (http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/01/26/mike-elgans-moronic-tirade-on-the-iphone/)

First, nobody is seriously concerned that Apple won’t hit its 2008 target. Apple reiterated complete confidence that it will be able to make its goal, and most analysts are projecting the company will exceed it. Elgan is hoping voice doubt about it, but that’s because his core competency revolves around fear, uncertainty, and doubt for anything lacking the Microsoft logo.

Apple has already sold 4 million iPhones in about 6 months. That means they only need 6 million this year and if they keep selling at the pace they have been then they will easily meet their goals.

It's certainly true that iPhone sales in the UK have been way below predictions, while its (arguably) main rival, the Nokia N95, has been selling like the proverbial hot cakes. I reckon myself it's down to the cost - the iPhone contract in the UK is extremely expensive (a minimum of £55 a month - about US$110), while the N95 can be had at much more reasonable rates.