View Full Version : Amazon Kindle delayed until end 2007?


Alexander Turcic
10-31-2007, 05:00 PM
Not long ago, we were pretty jazzed when NY Times editor Brad Stone informed the world (http://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13563) that Amazon was going to unveil its highly anticipated Kindle reader sometime in October this year. Although technically still possible, it's highly unlikely that we'll hear anything from Amazon today when everyone is already getting ready for the big Halloween party. Sure there must be a perfectly reasonable explanation for the delay, and Mr. Stone has now been told (http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/31/still-waiting-for-amazons-kindle/) by his publisher friends that it had to do with "technology kinks" and Amazon trying to prepare as many e-titles as possible before the launch.

According to publishing industry executives back then, Amazon had promised delivery of its keyboard-equipped electronic book reader during the second week of October. Now, those same people say that the company has pushed back that date and is aiming for a launch by the end of this year. Take that with a grain of salt. Amazon and its chief executive, Jeff Bezos, are notoriously persnickety.

At any rate, we still don't know what Amazon is up to and when they are going to lift the curtain. The arduous wait isn't over yet.

Nate the great
10-31-2007, 05:10 PM
Unless he can give a description of the Kindle, I don't trust what he says.

RWood
10-31-2007, 05:16 PM
If that is true then they will miss most if not all of the Christmas gift market. Many retailers do 50% to 80% of their yearly business then.

NatCh
10-31-2007, 05:21 PM
Unless he can give a description of the Kindle, I don't trust what he says.Even if he did, how would we know it was genuine? I figure we have to decide to either trust what he says or not to, I don't see a minor think like a description swaying me on that point. :shrug:

THJahar
10-31-2007, 07:45 PM
hmmm, i'm also going to take this with a grain of salt.
I mean firstly since unlike sony, amazon has no manufacturing ability, they must have a OEM producing the device.
Therefore if the intial design isn't 'complete' then there will be no manufacturing run of the device yet.
Now this may not be dramatic if for instance you aimed to sell only a few thousand devices, but with amazons user base in the many millions they surely must have to target production figures into the hundred of thousands rather than the low 10's of thousands that sony did.
I mean for instance just how many would be sold once they launch it on the front page of amazon in comparison with the launching on the front page of the sony connect store(who goes to sony connect store for anything?)
I would surely have thought there's got to be atleast a 2 month lead time from prototype sign off to significant completion of production run.
I mean we've had absolutely no evidence of the devices existence i.e. packaging shots, PVI manufacturing statements, or sly leaks of final products rather than the FCC images.

Or of cause maybe i'm wrong and some of you may point out the flaws in my reasoning

bowerbird
10-31-2007, 08:28 PM
oh, well, if it was _technology_kinks_ that caused this "delay",
it's totally understandable. after all, who could predict those?

c'mon folks, wise up. i was saying way back in the _spring_
that if this machine wasn't fully announced by mid-summer,
then it wouldn't be out until next year, because that's when
the big buyers make purchases for year-end holiday-season.

that's why jobs announced in _january_ that the iphone would
be available starting in _june_, because that's how it all works.

and i'll tell you right now it won't be released "at year-end",
because it's suicide to release something new into a season
when all the other products have been in the pipe for months.

look for an _announcement_ next spring, _release_ in summer,
with the consequent "glowing press releases about its reception"
in the fall so it's a "must-have" gift for year-end 2008 holidays.

assuming that d.r.m. hassles don't derail everything right away.

that's what i say, anyway. anyone want to bet against me?

-bowerbird

Goshzilla
11-01-2007, 01:31 AM
The Kindle has me the least excited over all the other ebook readers. The delays have been just silly now, and I can say that unless this thing costs 50 bucks(like the first rumor), and has a wacom style writing instrument, I have little interest in this thing.

rjnagle
11-01-2007, 11:01 AM
my speculation: this is disinformation intended to reassure industry watchers. In fact, my guess is that they'll be making an announcement in the next 2 weeks. or maybe bezos looked at the prototype, decided it really sucked and sent the product designers back to the drawing board.

bowerbird
11-01-2007, 12:29 PM
so, i read this on the teleblawg:
> Might Amazon even be engaged in a deliberate misinformation campaign
> designed to stretch the hype out, as some are speculating?

and i'm thinking, geez, here we are, on the first of november, with no kindle,
and the rumor-mongers and speculators have egg _all_ over their faces, so
surely they'd be too embarrassed to say anything for at least a _little_ while.
but no sir, instead they're just setting off yet _another_ round of gossip...

and i come over here, and find out that it's _robert_nagel_ who is the _source_
-- the "some" of the "some are speculating" -- for rothman's continued spinning.
the same robert nagel who _also_ writes for teleread.

so the echo-chamber is getting more and more insular.

and now it's started to turn on _amazon_, making _accusations_ that it is
engaging in "disinformation", accusations that are monumentally _silly_...

here's a reminder: amazon has said _absolutely_nothing_ about the kindle.

unless you count the spokesperson, who -- when asked about it by someone --
said "we don't comment on rumors and speculation".

got that, folks? "rumors and speculation".

and who's generating all the "rumors and speculation"? look in the mirror.

and then, when your "rumors and speculation" don't pan out -- imagine that! --
you actually have the cajones to accuse amazon of doing "disinformation"...

_you_ are the people doing the "disinformation".

and you're making amazon look bad, because their "product" -- which, again,
they haven't even officially _announced_, not in any regard, not even once,
let alone subjected to a _timeframe_ of any sort at all -- has been "delayed".

and your latest round of rumors has them putting out a product "at year-end",
a high-end niche gadget right _after_the_biggest_retailing_season_ of the year.
yeah, i'm sure of it. get real. the suggestion is just laughable on its face.

you're being _irresponsible_ in the extreme.

please, just _stop_ the rumor-mongering. don't say another thing about "the kindle"
-- not one! -- until you can relay something that _amazon_itself_ has to say about it.

because there is entirely too much egg on your face already.

and it's there because of what _you_ did, not because of what anyone else did...

-bowerbird

HarryT
11-01-2007, 12:34 PM
Let's keep this discussion polite, please. Disagreeing with someone's opinions is fine. Making personal attacks on a fellow board member is not.

Thank you,

Moderator.

bowerbird
11-01-2007, 02:23 PM
it's a strange definition of "polite" that lets one person accuse amazon of
engaging in "disinformation", but calls _me_ out for making the entirely
straightforward observation amazon has never said a word about "the kindle".

not. one. single. word.

think. about. that.

we're not talking about "opinions" here. it is a fact the kindle was not released.

is it an "attack" to point out when someone engages in rumors and speculation?
is it an "attack" to point out when those rumors spectacularly _fail_ to pan out?

egg, all over someone's face. and do they even say, "oops, sorry about that..."?

no, they point the finger of accusation elsewhere, as if _they_ were the party
who was duped instead of the _duping_agent_, and spin out the _very_same_
rumor, just moving the date 8-10 weeks into the future, just coincidentally the
_exact_same_ 8-10 weeks into the future their rumor had the last time around.

are they gonna keep regenerating this rumor until it "comes true"?

well, if the past is any guide, _probably_.

and nobody seems to notice that their crystal ball is very-badly cracked.

look, if there's zero commitment to _truth_ on these boards, then fine...
just let me know, and i will leave, and they'll be safe for tripe and hype...

but don't accuse me of making "personal attacks". that's entirely unjustified.

i don't have any issues with any people here. i have issues with the _lies_ that
are being bandied about carelessly under the banner of "speculation and opinion",
and the real damage that those lies are doing to the cause of electronic-books...

-bowerbird

JSWolf
11-01-2007, 02:26 PM
But, remember, we HAVE seen Kindle Edition on Amazon's website. Granted it was pulled. But it was there. So that's Amazon helping to keep the rumors alive.

Nate the great
11-01-2007, 02:38 PM
@bowerbird

As the chief rumor-monger, I have said nothing about Amazon possibly executing a FUD campaign. I have not been doing disinformation. I have only stated the information that I have found online, and some guesses I have made about that information.

Yes, I was wrong. I helped create the hype and then got swept up in it.

But you have no right to verbally spank me for my errors. You are not a moderator here (thank God), you are not my boss, and you are not my Mom.

NatCh
11-01-2007, 03:30 PM
it's a strange definition of "polite" that lets one person accuse amazon of engaging in "disinformation", but calls _me_ out for making the entirely straightforward observation amazon has never said a word about "the kindle".It's not what you said, bowerbird, so much as it is the tone you've adopted.

If you want to point out, accurately, that Amazon has let slip very little on the Kindle. You're welcome to. If you want to point out that we're tossing around speculation and rumor, feel free. If you want to suggest that folks be more considered as to what they toss around, and present a case as to why the tossing is detrimental, more power to you!

Just be respectful about it, is all. :shrug:

look, if there's zero commitment to _truth_ on these boards, then fine....Hardly. But there is the little detail of trying to figure out what that truth actually is.

We do have a bit to go on with the Kindle, in addition to the "Kindle Edition" spotted on Amazon which JSWolf mentioned, we also have the documentation that Amazon submitted to the FCC.

I don't think it's all that great a leap to conclude that they're working on something along the lines of what the FCC dox describe, and still working on it as suggested by the brief appearance of "Kindle Edition" books on Amazon.

Let me also point out that for the most part, folks around here are pretty careful about stating when they're speculating, and about pointing out things as rumors when they are. If other sites choose to ignore those qualifiers and treat as fact what has been expressly presented as rumor or speculation ... I'm at a loss as to how we can stop them. :dunno:

If we didn't discuss rumors, we wouldn't have much to talk about, now would we? :wink2:

We're not a newspaper. We do deliver news when we have it, but the if you just want a bland reporting of only verified facts, then you'll have to look elsewhere for that, someplace that is aimed at being a news outlet, or just camp on Amazon's press release page. :shrug:

If you're getting a belly full of the Kindle business (can't say as I blame you), then let it be for a while. There are a number of topics/threads I habitually avoid because I'm tired of the discussions that seem to just go round and round without getting anywhere new. Nothing wrong with ignoring it if you'd prefer.

But calling folks liars and demanding/ordering everyone to shut up about it isn't likely to work, and it really is a bit on the rude side. :shrug:

kjn24
11-01-2007, 06:05 PM
It's also worth mentioning that when you go to amazon, click on 'electronics' and then search for 'kindle' - the result you get is the ebookwise 1150. It doesn't say 'your search returned no results', which is technically what it should say.
KJ

bowerbird
11-01-2007, 06:16 PM
jswolfe said:
> But, remember, we HAVE seen Kindle Edition on Amazon's website.
> Granted it was pulled. But it was there.
> So that's Amazon helping to keep the rumors alive.

again, credulity is strained. do you think they did that _on_purpose_.

in order "to keep the rumors alive"?

do you think these "rumors and speculation" do amazon any good?

seriously?

they don't need your "help" if/when they want to get public notice.
they have a very big p.r. budget, and are not lacking in page-views.

indeed, if there is any one company that _could_ release a niche gadget
a few weeks before christmas and still have a chance of having it catch,
it would be amazon. but let me tell you, as plainly and clearly as i can,
that you are not helping them. on the contrary, you're _hurting_ them,
by making it appear that they have made promises that they never made,
by making it appear that products they have not even yet _announced_
are _late_ coming to market. this is not good for them. not good at all.
you don't need to be a genius to figure out they don't want you to do it.
they want you to _stop_.

unless you are meeting _personally_ with someone from amazon
-- as i expect brad stone of the new york times _might_ have --
to get your "leak" from them directly, i would suppose that amazon
doesn't really want, or need, your "help" in spreading such "leaks"...

***

nate said:
> As the chief rumor-monger, I have said nothing about Amazon
> possibly executing a FUD campaign. I have not been doing disinformation.

i think it was clear that robert nagle kicked off the latest "rumor"
-- i put "rumor" in quotes because it doesn't even have enough
juice left in it to earn _that_ title any more -- and besides all that,
i'm not singling out any individuals. not per se. there's a vicious
circle of people here -- david rothman, brad stone for the n.y. times,
engadget, ars technica, mobileread, and a few others -- who've been
"using" each other as "sources" in what's become a big echo-chamber.

and _somebody_ has to call you on this massive misinformation...
somebody has to break this vicious circle, at some point inside of it.

and i would _hope_ you'd be responsible enough to do it yourselves.
and i must say i was encouraged by a lot of the skepticism expressed.
(but discouraged that it seemed to be directed at _amazon_ instead of
the _real_ perpetrators of this misinformation.)

then here it was, one day after we could officially say "you were wrong",
and the spin cycle was set into motion again. i would be embarrassed
to repeat my last error _immediately_, but some people have no shame.
as i said, they even act like _they_ were the duped party. what a sham.


> I have only stated the information that I have found online,
> and some guesses I have made about that information.

to me, it shows you do not know how to evaluate the _trustworthiness_
of the information that you "have found online". to me, it's no "defense"
when you repeat unfounded speculation under the banner of "speculation".
quote some sources, so we know who is responsible, so when their reports
turn out to have been incorrect, we can make adjustments to the credibility.
and, for all i know, you've done that. again, this is not directed at anyone
in particular, except for robert nagle, and i already explained about him...

(and then, of course, rothman quoted nagle, without really quoting him,
just using the "speculation" word, without any specific attribution to it,
so that then nagle could turn around and make an attribution to teleread.
it's dirty "journalism". it's an echo-chamber. it's dishonest. it's a lie.)

and nagle and rothman do this quite a bit. this is not the first time.
it's not even the 10th time.

and because of that, i know i'm not gonna get them to stop. but
maybe, just maybe, i can make robert look at what he actually said,
in that post up there, and maybe he'll realize how silly it all sounds.


> Yes, I was wrong. I helped create the hype and then got swept up in it.

good. it's really great to see that you can admit you made a mistake.


> But you have no right to verbally spank me for my errors.
> You are not a moderator here (thank God),
> you are not my boss, and you are not my Mom.

you're right. i'm just a person who cares about _the_truth_.

and a person who cares about _electronic-books_. and a person
who has seen that cause _damaged_, and damaged _repeatedly_,
by people who -- for whatever reason -- engage in "speculation".

to the point where i feel it _necessary_ -- even at the cost of
having insulting accusations levied that i'm not being "polite" --
to address one group of people (among many) doing this damage.

***

natch said:
> Just be respectful about it, is all.

there's absolutely nothing about this whole scenario that i _respect_.

you reap what you sow. when you engage in "rumors and speculation",
and they come out wrong, over and over and over again, and you _still_
continue to engage in those _exact_same_ "rumors and speculation" --
and even act like you are the aggrieved party who has been lied to --
then you've _sacrificed_ any shred of "respect" you could've expected...

(and i don't mean _you_ in particular, i mean everyone who does that.
if the shoe fits, wear it.)

i'm more than willing to grant everyone a generous share of respect.

but if they're not going to take that respect seriously, why should i?

i don't think _you_ are showing much "respect" for my deep belief that
what is being done is causing serious damage to the cause of e-books.

at least have the decency to _acknowledge_ it _could_ be a bad thing.

or make the argument that what is said here has no importance because
nobody reads it or believes it anyway. or _something_ other than a crude
accusation that i'm not being "respectful". because that's just ad hominem.


> We do have a bit to go on with the Kindle, in addition to the "Kindle Edition"
> spotted on Amazon which JSWolf mentioned, we also have the documentation
> that Amazon submitted to the FCC.

i don't think you understand.

i'm not _questioning_ that amazon is going to release an e-book machine.
for heaven's sake, they sell books, and it's perfectly obvious to everyone that
books will _eventually_ move largely to digital form, so it would be ridiculous
to assert that amazon has no intentions of being anything but a big part of that.

and i _certainly_ don't suggest they aren't doing any _research_ in that sphere.
it would be suicide for them not to do that. that f.c.c. filing might well have
been a part of an overall campaign to establish dates for patent purposes, etc.

i don't even take issue with the report -- was it from charlie stoss? -- that
one publisher told one author that amazon made a big push for mid-october.

what i _do_ take issue with is the constant repetition of that date in the blog
echo-chamber as if it was some _fact_ that was carved in stone, in spite of the
_obvious_ elephant in the room, which was that amazon itself had said nothing.

i mean, seriously, didn't you all think that was kind of strange?

believe me, once this project starts getting ready to drop, there will be
all kinds of pre-push preparations that will lead to all kinds of "leaks".

and then amazon will announce it _well_in_advance_ of the actual sale,
just like jobs made a 6-month pre-announcement on sales of the iphone.

this is _not_ the kind of product that you just _dump_ on the marketplace...
this is the kind of gadget for which you need to prep people's expectations.
you have to tell them all kinds of nice-sounding gee-whiz stuff to make 'em
_want_ to buy this newfangled product. you've got to insulate the image, so
-- as will probably be the case -- when the negatives start cascading in from
real-world people using the machine for real-world purposes in the real-world,
the image of the product is able to withstand the buffeting.

if you don't do this pre-conditioning, the machine will get very few initial sales
-- it'll just make a thump in the market, and the vacuum will be embarrassing --
and the few sales you _do_ make will result in bad press that sinks future sales.
and then you've got a big turkey on your hands. and the cause of e-books will
suffer _another_ big setback, like the dozens it has already been subjected to...

but what you're doing here? you're just messing up people's expectations badly.
you are making amazon's job harder to keep those expectations within bounds.

heck, you're even messing with your _own_ expectations. you repeated all this
"speculation" so frequently that you actually came to _believe_it_! yourselves!
when it didn't pan out, you were _disappointed_. you were _angry_at_amazon_.
because they were "duping" you. doing "disinformation" on you. yeah, right...
you duped yourselves. you did a con job on yourselves. and you believed it...
and now you'll tell me that i'm being "rude" for pointing out these simple facts.


> Let me also point out that for the most part, folks around here are pretty careful
> about stating when they're speculating, and about pointing out things as rumors
> when they are. If other sites choose to ignore those qualifiers and treat as fact
> what has been expressly presented as rumor or speculation ... I'm at a loss as to
> how we can stop them.

well, i can give you some ideas. first and foremost, you can contact them
and point out that they have failed to communicate your careful qualifiers.

you can tell them the exact same thing that i've told you here, which is that
communicating these rumors as fact, or even merely repeating them too often
under the banner of "speculation", does _real_damage_ to the cause of e-books.

next, if they keep on making the same mistake, draw attention to their speculation.
label it as such. stand out as a beacon of truth in the world of electronic-books...
believe me, there's a need for it. there is _so_ much hype and spin, it's incredible.
it would take an army of fact-checkers just to keep david rothman's blog in line...

because, i'll tell you, all these lies and hype do _not_ do good. they do _harm_...


> If we didn't discuss rumors, we wouldn't have much to talk about, now would we?

actually, i think you would. there are a lot of things happening in the real-world
which -- if you treated them with the _respect_ that real-world things deserve --
would likely be treated as far more important than they are now, when they have to
"compete" against the vapor products that keep getting reported so breathlessly...

because vapor products _never_ have any flaws.


> If you're getting a belly full of the Kindle business (can't say as I blame you),
> then let it be for a while. There are a number of topics/threads I habitually avoid
> because I'm tired of the discussions that seem to just go round and round
> without getting anywhere new. Nothing wrong with ignoring it if you'd prefer.

no. i hate _all_ the hype. all the speculation. all the unfounded "optimism".

because all of it turns people away from what we have right here, right now...

it makes them think that the e-book revolution is "around the next corner",
instead of right in front of us right now. did you notice the rise of the blog?
did you realize blogs are e-books, in serial form, being delivered here, now?

and do you understand that this is important because -- almost invisibly, and
without any real effort -- chains of corporate-publisher-gatekeepers were shed?

do you understand that mobileread -- and sites like it -- are the new publishers?

maybe you do, maybe you don't, but i can tell you for sure that most people don't.

because they still think of "publishing" as the tool that makes paper-books or
paper-newspapers, they still don't really have any clue that the world has been
turned completely upside down. they've been _told_ that it "will" happen, and
they "expect" it to happen, but they're still _waiting_ for it to happen, because
they think it depends on e-ink, or wi-fi book-downloads, or the amazon kindle.

it's so _funny_ to me when people say "e-books will arrive when the new york
publishing houses get on-board", because they seem to have no understanding
that when e-books arrive the new york publishing houses will become extinct...


> But calling folks liars

people have said things that turned out not to be true. that is a fact.
whether that makes 'em "liars" or not, well, that's not for me to judge.
i'd much rather think that they were just seriously misinformed, and
that -- once they realized that -- they would become a bit cautious.


> and demanding/ordering everyone to shut up about it
> isn't likely to work, and it really is a bit on the rude side.

i'm not in a position to "demand" or "order everyone" to "shut up".

i _suggested_ that, in order to avoid getting egg all over their face _again_,
as has happened quite a few times previously, that they adopt of strategy of
depending on _amazon_ to announce what and when _amazon_ will do things.

and if you kindly look back, you'll notice that i even prefaced my suggestion
with the word "please"...

so, you can take offense at that suggestion if you want, but it's not "rude"...
(and if you _do_ take offense, it'd make me wonder why you were so inclined.)

-bowerbird

JSWolf
11-01-2007, 06:53 PM
Remember it was the NYTimes article that said when the Kindle was going to debut. We didn't come up with that at all. When they publish and article like that most people tent to take it as fact that it's going to happen.

NatCh
11-01-2007, 07:01 PM
i don't think _you_ are showing much "respect" for my deep belief that what is being done is causing serious damage to the cause of e-books.Well, no one is belittling it, for one thing, that's not exactly disrespectful. No one is even arguing the point, we're just asking that you tone down your rhetoric. Your points are getting lost in your aggressive tone.

This is not teleread, and handing out verbal flayings here will not affect anything over there.

at least have the decency to _acknowledge_ it _could_ be a bad thing.Sure, if that's what's bugging you: absolutely, it could be a bad thing. It could even be a bad thing in spite of the fact that most marketing types consider word of mouth to be the best advertising available.

Could this particular line of discussion (the theory that Amazon is trying to disinform the public by not saying anything at all) be counter to their aims and interests? Yeah, it probably is. I even agree that it's rather a silly notion that someone could disinform by doing their best to avoid letting out any information whatsoever in the first place. If you'd just said something along the lines of "hey, how can they be doing a dis-information campaign when they're doing their best to not allow any information out?" you'd have gotten your point across a lot more clearly with a lot less energy spent. Your points are being lost in the heat of your rhetoric.

or _something_ other than a crude accusation that i'm not being "respectful". because that's just ad hominem.It's not ad hominem, it's an observation -- it's not an attack and it's not even an argument, it's an observation that the discussion is getting heated and a request to calm things down a bit.

No one is suggesting that you stop making your point. In fact, this is my second explicit statement to that effect.

Perhaps some time for everyone to take deep breaths and settle down might be a good thing. And then we can resume the discussion of the best way to avoid being trapped by rumors and speculation with a bit more calm, so that more good points don't get lost in the heat.

TadW
11-01-2007, 07:07 PM
Amazon, please unveil the Kindle, before this turns into a bloodshed :popcorn: :celebrate:

Alexander Turcic
11-01-2007, 07:12 PM
Amazon, please unveil the Kindle, before this turns into a bloodshed :popcorn: :celebrate:

Now, now that's the last thing we want! :daisy:

THJahar
11-01-2007, 07:14 PM
wow. Just finished that post, it_was_very_long (those underscore thing are great, they do actually make you stress the words in your head)

I gather what you are trying to say, but i think you completely overlooked the role of sites such as mobileread.

My definition of this site is thus:

a) Niche site for a specific technology segment
b) Forum for discussing/speculating on said technology
c) defining and advancing usage of said technology (developers resource)

Now with that definition in place for myself, I would immediately understand that the core readership are what marketeers call 'early adopters'.
This is borne out by the large number of the contributers here, buying pre-production devices (iliad, and my own v2 are an example)
Now the thing with early adopters is that we will speculate about developments within our niche.
Hence i come here with the_expectation_of speculation from limited facts.
And it should come as no suprise_to_any_of_us that since the medium that is utilised for disseminating information is a vast array of interconnected computers (www), that the information/speculation is repeated and transmitted. Therefore it's designed to be an echo chamber!
Oh and as for the damage done, did i mention that we're predominately early adopters in a niche segement? So once again despite how mad we get about missed deadlines for launches (whether real or imaginary (Iliad *cough*)) we don't care..we'll buy the bloody things anyway.

Well i hope i refuted your points (your post was a little long so i might have missed some) by pointing out that speculation is great especially when it's placed in a site where we want it.

bowerbird
11-01-2007, 07:23 PM
natch said:
> Your points are being lost in the heat of your rhetoric.

there's no "heat" in my "rhetoric". i'm cool as a cucumber.

goodness gracious, i've been reading about the kindle for
_over_a_year_ now, here on mobileread, and on teleread,
and all over the place. i'm bored _silly_ with it by now...

and it hasn't even been officially _announced_ yet!

if i _did_ have passion for it (did you see its picture?),
that ejaculation was premature a _very_ long time ago.

there's absolutely no heat there, not for me anyway, so
even when amazon _does_ get around to announcing it,
and selling it a few months after that, i won't be able to
work up any desire for it, let alone waiting for upgrades
to where i'll believe it's a worthy machine _years_ later,
and moving enough units to drop the price to something
i consider to be "reasonable" a few years after _that_...

again, there's more than enough _reality_ here right now.

so why constantly distract people with a "next month" that
won't _actually_ arrive for another 6 months, or in 2 years?
if then?

-bowerbird

bowerbird
11-01-2007, 07:28 PM
thjahar, you make some good points, at least about this hub of the echo-chamber.

i didn't stand in line for my iphone, but i did pay $600 for it... so, um, i know...

and tadw, thanks for the humor injection. sometimes i wish i could be funny... ;+)

-bowerbird

NatCh
11-01-2007, 07:40 PM
natch said:
> Your points are being lost in the heat of your rhetoric.

there's no "heat" in my "rhetoric". i'm cool as a cucumber.I'm very glad to hear it! :yes: Please let a bit more of that coolness show in your word choices and phrasings and then it'll become apparent to the rest of us. :nice:

so why constantly distract people with a "next month" that won't _actually_ arrive for another 6 months, or in 2 years?
if then?That's an excellent question. I guess, for me, the answer is much what THJahar pointed out: one of the main points of MobileRead is to watch for trends and try to guess what's going to come of them, so it's not really a distraction, so much as it is kinda the point. :wink:

I don't need a new prediction every month to keep my interest up, but it's the nature of the beast. Whaddayagonnado? Personally my interest in the Kindle is more clinical: what will its features be? How will it handle DRM? What is that WhisperNet thing, anyway? Will it be less Fugly when they finally do launch it than it was in the FCC dox? http://www.mobileread.com/forums/images/smilies/eek.gif

We do our best to specify what we know to be fact as fact, and clearly indicate rumors as being rumors. If I had a karma point for every time I've reminded someone that something was only a rumor, my karma would probably be higher than Alexander's is! I don't think anyone has ever suggested that we were dealing only in verified facts -- it's a discussion forum, after all, the whole point of such locales is to discuss, explore, speculate and express opinions; to solve the world's problems, if you will. We have a Wiki for the verified stuff. :grin:

NatCh
11-01-2007, 07:42 PM
.. thanks for the humor injection. sometimes i wish i could be funny....Clearly, you can be. :yes:if i _did_ have passion for it (did you see its picture?), that ejaculation was premature a _very_ long time ago.I found that comment very funny. :D

JSWolf
11-01-2007, 07:50 PM
Remember, if a company says that a product is due when they say so, we can either believe them or not. Like with the Cybook Gen3, I didn't believe them and I was correct. But what you take on board as possible fact is up to you.

Nate the great
11-01-2007, 09:11 PM
nate said:
> As the chief rumor-monger, I have said nothing about Amazon
> possibly executing a FUD campaign. I have not been doing disinformation.
> I have only stated the information that I have found online,
> and some guesses I have made about that information.

to me, it shows you do not know how to evaluate the _trustworthiness_
of the information that you "have found online.

-bowerbird

You have truly stepped over the line. You should have actually _looked_ at the information I posted before attacking me.

I have posted the following information:

Two sets of results from the Google cache.
"kindle edition" site:amazon.com
whispernet site:amazon.com
An interesting fact about the second search: I know of at least one instance that I had found a whispernet reference (through Google) on Amazon _that_Amazon_removed_after_it_was_mentioned_here. The are only two ways that the search results might not be trustworthy: one, Amazon is faking them; two, Google is faking them. So, you think this is not a trustworthy source?

The results of a trademark search for "kindle" and "whispernet". I found a trademark for "kindle" that closely fit the description of the Amazon Kindle, and was owned by a corporation based out of a shopping center in Seattle. This corporation is also currently applying for a trademark for "whispernet" (I don't think they will get it). I found the trademark information on the federal gov't trademark dep'.t. website. I found the corporate registration on the State of Delaware website. So, you think these two sources are not trustworthy?

Some of the results of a search based on the customer service numbers listed in the Kindle Manual PDF. I have not finished this search yet.

The results of my investigation into the Kindle have appeared in dribs and drabs. This is because I did not take it seriously. I had hoped the Kindle would be released by now. But I have not ended the investigation, nor posted all that I have found.

bowerbird
11-01-2007, 09:25 PM
nate-

i said it before -- you actually quoted it, just now! -- but i'll say it again:
> this is not directed at anyone in particular, except for robert nagle...

i hope that -- this second time around -- that is sufficiently clear...

i also said "if the shoe fits, wear it."

if you're taking things personally, ask yourself why.

(and yes, if you're _not_ taking things personally, then
the shoe doesn't fit you, and you don't have to wear it.)

-bowerbird

Nate the great
11-01-2007, 09:34 PM
to me, it shows you do not know how to evaluate the _trustworthiness_
of the information that you "have found online".
-bowerbird

Read this quote again. This was a personal attack against me. You directly accused me of incompetence. Gee, I wonder why I take it personally. Hmm. That will take some thought.

RWood
11-01-2007, 10:16 PM
While it is true that we do collect information from the Internet and put them in one place for people to find, we also add our own views on the issues and items that we have found. Yes, I have used the term FUD in relation to the Amazon Kindle; but, unlike many consumer electronics vendors, Amazon is a direct sales site and therefore can go from nothing to full sales effort at the flick of a switch (or rather the setting of a bit.)

Also, we are not the ones that got the piece on the Kindle in the New York Times. We may be good, I didn't think we were that good.

da_jane
11-01-2007, 10:49 PM
Oh, please, the guys at Mobile Read do a great service. They've also "broken" alot of stories such as the sale of the Sony PRS-505. The fact is that there are plenty sources upon which the MR guys are basing the Kindle rumors upon. FCC documents, web searches, information on the Amazon site, and the NY Times.

Of course we e-book aficianados get excited to hear about new devices. It's absolutely natural.

As for the argument that only those that deserve to feel defensive actually are defensive is a false hypothesis because there are many other variants to explain why people feel defensive. Any time a "you" is thrown out there, there will be those who feel insulted and attacked even if the debater isn't directing the comment at them. It's a sloppy technique akin known as the shotgun approach which can serve to injure those on the periphery as well as those who might be the true target.

da_jane
11-01-2007, 10:49 PM
PS - I'm not terribly excited about the Kindle because it is so terribly ugly.

Liviu_5
11-01-2007, 10:54 PM
I do not understand what all this fuss is about. Why should we not speculate, talk about any and all rumors and so on? What has this to do with managing expectations about e-books, Kindle, Amazon or whatever?

In the Kindle case I still believe that Amazon is testing the waters right now the way it did with the mp-3 store 2 years ago (remember when the rumors about that started?).

The time is just not right for a massive push into e-books, but it may be late next year, or in 09 when they finally they may secure rights for enough titles to have for once a real shot of pushing e-books into mainstream.

As more of a speculation, I think they wait for a major publisher to do drm-free e-books at reasonable prices and then they will go ahead with Kindle.

igorsk
11-01-2007, 11:34 PM
Can we get an ignore button? It's been largely unnecessary here but scrolling over bowerbird's "i'm from a mailing list" posts is getting kinda tiring.

bowerbird
11-01-2007, 11:43 PM
gosh, nate, i don't know how to react... truly. i said it directly once,
and then i said it directly a second time, and it still hasn't penetrated.

let me try a different tack. i admire your ability to ferret out facts...
my goodness, you're off searching the federal trademark database,
and a corporate information database for delaware, and who knows
what else, all for bits of info on a product that will only have impact
once it's been made available to the public, and maybe not even then.
you even found some places where the amazon web grunts messed up!
i admire your sleuthing abilities, and say that about _you_, _personally_.

so i will just add that i'm glad that i'm not one of the guys having an affair
with your wife, and leave it at that, ok? ;+)

as for the rest of you, believe what you want (even if it's the n.y. times
-- they couldn't print it if it wasn't true), because hey, that's what _i_ do!

-bowerbird

p.s. i got the real scoop from my source up in seattle. amazon is waiting
until they can release a machine consisting of that new e-ink that you can
fold up and put into your pocket, like a sheet of honest-to-goodness paper.
they've been assured it'll be available "real soon now", so they're waiting...
my friend said i couldn't quote him, though. he said to call it "speculation".

yvanleterrible
11-02-2007, 08:47 AM
Criticising would be devices on a forum is a good thing, even if they never exist.

We should feel lucky that we can participate in an accelerated evolution, one that kills off bad conception and design before damage is done to a user and to a small company. It gives us a chance, as experienced users, to point the right direction for manufacturers. It was proven often that MR had positive input in the market to the point that the actual surviving device's creators write here or follow our discussions.

I would push pretention to the point that Amazon has not marketed their device yet on the result of our discussions. Isn't this alone a good reason to pursue in a civilized manner? Let not our impatience spoil the lucid discourse that makes MR worthwhile and continue on.

TadW
11-02-2007, 09:25 AM
Can we get an ignore button? It's been largely unnecessary here but scrolling over bowerbird's "i'm from a mailing list" posts is getting kinda tiring.

User Profile -> "Add xyz to Your Ignore List"

nekokami
11-02-2007, 10:05 AM
User Profile -> "Add xyz to Your Ignore List"
I hate having to consider this option. I've only ever used it once (for someone who seemed to want to take it as a personal challenge to try to offend me), but I have to admit I'm considering using it again.

yvanleterrible
11-02-2007, 10:08 AM
User Profile -> "Add xyz to Your Ignore List"

Please, can you explain what results are obtained by this, I have no idea?

Nate the great
11-02-2007, 10:11 AM
Please, can you explain what results are obtained by this, I have no idea?

You won't be able to see the words, but the space they take up will still be there.

yvanleterrible
11-02-2007, 10:23 AM
Thanks, but that's plain wrong!

I fondly believe that any opinion is valid, isn't this protected by your constitution?

Even if an opinionator is obtuse and closed to reason he must be read. Personnally it make me stronger in my resolve and they give me more ammunition to fight them with intelligence.

"Keep your ennemies closer to you than your friends."

Alas, the only thing that gets to me is repetition, I get bored and skip over... :grin2:

NatCh
11-02-2007, 11:18 AM
I've never used the Ignore option, I have considered it on occasion, but I've decided that I'd rather not be unaware of what folks are saying.

These days, I just won't even consider it, as I figure it's just not an appropriate action for a Moderator to take. :shrug:

CommanderROR
11-02-2007, 11:23 AM
I'd say "let's get back to to rumour and speculation" instead of fighting about opinions.
There are things that can be resolved in a discussion and things that can't be.

This thread is about the Kindle. Bowerbird has said some things that might be true or not. He said it in a fashion that is not exactly what we conisder "polite and calm" here on mobileread, but it's not bad enough to warrant any moderator action I think.

Since we are in a subforum that deals with a device that is -at the moment- only rumour and speculation it is all we can do to trawl the internet for information and try to seperate it from pure "nonsense" rumour.
Nate and others put in a lot of work and found quite a large amount of info that suggests very strongy that the Kindle is going to be real, and since the links to kindle books were actually there on amazon, I guess it won't be a release "sometime in 2009" because that would make rather no sense at all.
Do I think Amazon will come to harm because we say it was "delayed"? Nope, I don't think so at all. They did not contradict or sue the NY-Times, and that's a lot more serious than some internet forum... ;) so I guess they don't see any danger.
The Amazon Kindle has not been officially announced, but these days companies often spread rumours to test the market. Apple does it all the time...or do you think all that information seeps out onto the interent without a little help from insiders??? We saw the Kindle at FCC...that was probably not intentional...but the "Kindle Editions" on Amazon that even had pricing information and were not even removed immediately...I find it highly unlikely that something like that would just hapen by accident. And if Amazon is leaking out little tidbits of information, then what we are doing here is exactly what they want us to do. If they really did not leak it on purpose...well...then it's their own fault... :D

Alisa
11-02-2007, 12:33 PM
Can we get an ignore button? It's been largely unnecessary here but scrolling over bowerbird's "i'm from a mailing list" posts is getting kinda tiring.

Honestly, I don't need one for this poster. I find the formatting so annoying to read I just end up skipping the posts. I read a couple of lines and just figure why bother?

bowerbird
11-02-2007, 03:53 PM
it seems y'all want full credit for the positives that relate from your speculation, but
you also want to evade responsibility when your predictions fail to pan out, or produce
negative consequences to the cause of electronic-books. ok, sounds like you're humans.

carry on...

-bowerbird

NatCh
11-02-2007, 04:04 PM
ok, sounds like you're humans.So ... this was some sort of elaborate Turing test, then? :wink2:

And you think you can't be funny! :rofl:

rjnagle
11-03-2007, 02:52 AM
Hi, Bowerbird,

I didn't mean very much by that speculation on page 1 of the thread. I honestly have no idea what is going on (I was expecting a kindle in 2006--boy was I wrong). We know exactly what people on mobileread know, probably less.

As for "disinformation," I simply meant that i believed that Amazon.com was selectively leaking news that the device "was coming" and at the same time keeping quiet about whether it even exists. I am growing sick and tired of it. I think a kindle device does/did exist, but the fact they aren't showing it off at trade shows sends the signal that it's not anywhere ready for prime time. The leak to Brad Stone seems intended to counter that impression.

You know it really is hilarious how even the slightest bit of ebook news seems enormously interesting to mobileread/teleread readers and how unimportant it seems to the rest of the world.

Speaking of conspiracy theories, I think the universe is conspiring to deprive me of my Cybook 3; damn, why didn't I order it Sunday night when I had the chance?

igorsk
11-03-2007, 05:15 AM
Honestly, I don't need one for this poster. I find the formatting so annoying to read I just end up skipping the posts. I read a couple of lines and just figure why bother?
Same here. I just thought I would save on screen space by not seeing the posts at all :) Thanks to TadW for showing the option!

CCDMan
11-04-2007, 10:50 AM
It sure would be nice to know what is gonna happen or at least what the specs and price will be. I have at least two friends that want e-readers but are waiting for more information on the Kindle before deciding.

As others have said and these friends are an example of, if Amazon does not have these out for XMas, these buddies will probably wind up with Sonys. And once they have the Sonys, it will be much harder for Amazon to sell them anything, reader or content.

So if Amazon does not get off the pot in time, they will lose not just reader sales but years of content sales from folks that bought or got Sonys for Xmas instead. They surely know this.

vivaldirules
11-04-2007, 11:21 AM
So if Amazon does not get off the pot in time, they will lose not just reader sales but years of content sales from folks that bought or got Sonys for Xmas instead. They surely know this.

I'm sure they do, too, but I don't think it's as if they risk losing millions of sales to those who are flocking to the Sony. This is still very much a fringe market. When people see me in public with my Reader, it seems to be absolutely new to all of them. They've never even heard of the thing. So I think Amazon has plenty of time to improve their device and build content. I certainly don't want them to release something that's poorly designed that will hurt the near-term future of these devices. And in the meantime, the best thing that we owners can do is to show off the devices we have to help drum up interest.

bowerbird
11-04-2007, 12:04 PM
you shoulda told your friends to stop waiting a long, long time ago.
this is why it's dangerous to tell people "something is coming" when
you have no certainty if it is _really_ coming: it delays their action...

if they were ready to buy the sony months ago, they _should_ have.
the overall world of electronic-books would have benefitted from it...

-bowerbird

HarryT
11-04-2007, 12:11 PM
There will always be people who will wait for the "next generation" of machines which somehow always seem to be elusively hovering just over the horizon. I remember there was a post a while ago on this forum from someone who said that he'd been waiting for 10 years to buy an eBook reader. I replied that I'd been enjoying reading eBooks for all that time (actually double that - my first "eBook Reader" was a Psion 2 in about 1985). "Carpe Diem" is the appropriate expression, I think. Make the most of what's here now - you only get one life to enjoy.

bowerbird
11-04-2007, 12:39 PM
harry said:
> There will always be people who will wait for the "next generation" of machines

yes, but it sounds like ccdman's friends are not that type, since -- if the kindle
doesn't come in by christmas, which, let's face it, probably ain't gonna happen --
they'll end up with sony machines...

-bowerbird

HarryT
11-04-2007, 12:43 PM
if the kindle
doesn't come in by christmas, which, let's face it, probably ain't gonna happen --
they'll end up with sony machines...

-bowerbird

Fair enough then. We are blessed with a number of nice machines to choose from these days - Sony Reader, iRex iLiad, Bookeen CyBook, etc - not to mention all the PDAs and Smartphones which can be used for reading.

CCDMan
11-04-2007, 03:33 PM
you shoulda told your friends to stop waiting a long, long time ago.
this is why it's dangerous to tell people "something is coming" when
you have no certainty if it is _really_ coming: it delays their action...

Actually, I don't "tell" my friends to do anything. They are smart enough to make their own decisions (if they weren't, they would not be my friends). What I "told" them was to read this forum and make up their minds. They did that and decided to wait.

bowerbird
11-04-2007, 03:55 PM
you shouldn't have told them to read this forum. :+)

they were led to believe -- based on the unfounded
"speculation" here -- they should wait for the kindle.

which proves that even people who are smart
enough to be your friends can do stupid things. ;+)

-bowerbird

DrMoze
11-04-2007, 08:49 PM
*sigh* Thanks for the heads-up on the "ignore" option. Didn't think I'd need it on this forum, but after reading this thread I paid it a visit.

And I too think the Kindle proto shown in the OP is ugly. The white plastic and large button layout looks kind of cheezy imo.

If Amazon has the manufacturing facilities lined up, I still think they could try to hit the market for the holiday season this year. It would be a nice "latest thing" gift option for bookworm friends from a familiar brand name in books.

Just mho, in case anyone wants to flame me. :(

Alexander Turcic
11-05-2007, 10:48 AM
OK, time to stress a few points:


MobileRead is dedicated to discussing e-book readers and trends in e-books;
Various leaks (through the FDA, through Amazon's webstore, and through various publishers) have acknowledged the existence of the Kindle reader;
This particular forum section is all about the Kindle reader;
Rumors and speculations is what makes life interesting.


We don't force anybody to believe what we say. Au contraire: we love to hear different opinions. And I believe that this community is doing a great job in bringing different perspectives together - always in a civil manner!

bowerbird, I kindly ask you not to make presumptions about what other people think, or about their motives for visiting our site. In fact, it's very rude when you imply that we or other forum members lead people to believe in unfounded speculations. It's our hobby to talk about e-book readers (see point 1 above), whether it's a reader we got in our hands or a reader that's just been mentioned in the NYTimes. You are free to disagree, but please let's get on and focus on the primary subject of this discussion, the Kindle Reader.

bowerbird
11-05-2007, 02:17 PM
alexander, i _am_ discussing the kindle reader. and _my_ opinion
-- because i am entitled to have an opinion, like every else, right? --
is that _no_one_ should wait for it, because _my_speculation_ is that
it's not gonna come for a while. a long while. maybe a very long while.

and my further speculation is that once it _does_ come, it will have
one or more "gotchas" -- like, say, its rumored $300+ pricetag -- that
might severely compromise its impact on the world of e-books at large.

and i believe i have said, right here, that _i_ believe that amazon _is_
working on a reader-machine. indeed, if i remember right what i said,
it was that _i_ believe that they'd be very stupid _not_ to be doing that.

but we don't have to question its "existence" to repeat the _fact_ that
amazon has consistently declined to say _absolutely_anything_ about
the kindle, except for "we don't comment on rumors and speculation"...

and we don't have to question its "existence" to repeat the _fact_ that
neither you nor i nor _anyone_else_ can purchase a kindle _today_...

and i certainly would _hope_ (and expect) these factual observations
are not considered "rude", or hostile in _any_ manner, because they
are simply and exactly as i described them -- factual observations...

not that i would want the _facts_ to spoil anyone's fun. i _like_ fun.

if people want to "speculate", that's fine. speculate your life away.
you have my express permission.

i, in turn, will _continue_ to focus on the primary subject of this discussion,
the kindle reader. which no one here, to my knowledge, has ever even seen.

but, of course, i don't force anybody to believe what i say. believe what you want.

-bowerbird

mocelet
11-05-2007, 04:41 PM
But bowerbird, there might be a reason to wait for it, it is rumoured to have features that no other reader has...

It might not be $300, it might be on a cell phone like plan - $100 + $20 a month for a minimum of a year. That is different from all other devices, but it might still be too expensive for what it is.

It almost certainly has some sort of cell based wireless access, be it EVDO or GSM data. This is different from all other devices, but it might only access Amazon's own online bookstore and be next to pointless.

It may be available in Europe. Until last week, the only other device officially available in Europe is the iLiad, which costs significantly more than the Kindle is rumoured to. The Gen3 modifies this point, but this is a recent development.

However, yes, these are all rumours, speculation and guesswork. But we (the MobileRead community) enjoy this. It is like gambling without risking any money. In the end, some of our guesses will be right, and most will be wrong. People who dug up correct information get kudos, and the rest of us get a giggle.

I quite fancy an eink based reader, my wife has an iLiad and I would love to buy one for myself, but I choose to spend my 400 on other toys (scuba diving right now - perhaps I should wait for a waterproof and pressure capable e-ink reader with stylus so I can write notes while diving :rolleyes: ). A Kindle might be exactly what I want for a more affordable price, I have my phone to read on right now, so I don't need to buy a reader immediately, so I choose to wait.

bowerbird
11-05-2007, 05:20 PM
mocelet said:
> But bowerbird, there might be a reason to wait for it

yes, you're absolutely right! there might be! :+)

-bowerbird

Goshzilla
11-05-2007, 10:06 PM
But bowerbird, there might be a reason to wait for it, it is rumoured to have features that no other reader has...


Although you were addressing someone else. I think the only thing missing would be a stylus input. It may not sound like a big deal, but I did have a chance to use my ebookwise for a literature class, and being able to highlight passages, do an instant dictionary lookup were very useful. PDAs, Pocket Pcs, Ebookwise, and Iliad have this feature. So either Kindle could use the touchscreen style input(I hope not, the resolution would be bad), or do the wacom style input. If it's the wacom style input, and it comes out at a fraction of the price of the Iliad, just at 400, it would be a great device just on price point alone.

HarryT
11-06-2007, 04:11 AM
It almost certainly has some sort of cell based wireless access, be it EVDO or GSM data. This is different from all other devices, but it might only access Amazon's own online bookstore and be next to pointless.

It may be available in Europe. Until last week, the only other device officially available in Europe is the iLiad, which costs significantly more than the Kindle is rumoured to. The Gen3 modifies this point, but this is a recent development.


IF it uses EVDO, that would rule out its use in Europe. EVDO is CDMA technology; European mobile phone networks are exclusively GSM.

mocelet
11-06-2007, 01:30 PM
IF it uses EVDO, that would rule out its use in Europe. EVDO is CDMA technology; European mobile phone networks are exclusively GSM.

Indeed, hence my "or GSM data" comment.

bowerbird
11-06-2007, 02:58 PM
c'mon, you guys, you gotta keep up with the speculation.

brad stone's latest spin (er, i mean "article") in the n.y. times
"reported" that "according to someone who has seen the kindle"
-- see, more spin, i talked to someone who has _seen_ it, so it
_must_ be real, because they wouldn't lie to me, would they? --
it's using the sprint network.

and, um, no, i don't know what that means in regard to europe.

but, hey, as long as it's just "speculation", i don't have to know!

and you guys do remember how i said it's gonna have that e-ink
you can just fold up and put in your pocket, don't you? :+)

this speculation stuff is fun. i don't know why i was such a
stick-in-the-mud earlier about the "facts". facts are boring.
i was wrong, you were right, this is _much_ more enjoyable.

don't buy the sony-reader, folks! who would want a heavy, hard,
_stiff_ machine anyway? you should wait for the foldable kindle!

oh, i gots me a _great_ idea: we will call it the spindle-kindle!

-bowerbird

NatCh
11-06-2007, 03:37 PM
"Fold, Kindle and Mutilate," is it? :grin: