View Full Version : So what's the verdict?


HarryT
10-12-2007, 10:23 AM
What's the verdict on the Kindle? Does it actually exist? Is it going to be launched in the foreseeable future?

Your views?

Poll attached.

Nate the great
10-12-2007, 11:20 AM
I see two possibilities here:

one, Amazon has an absolutely amazing ability to keep a secret;

two, it's not nearly ready for release so they haven't said anything.


I am hoping for the first, but I think the second is more likely. Now, there are four datapoints that suggest that it does exist. They include:

the leaked FCC disassembly,
the leaked manual,
the Les Echoes statement that it would be available on the Kindle on 15 October,
the references to "kindle edition" showing up on Amazon.com.

The first two datapoints are strong evidence that the Kindle existed at that time in that form. That doesn't mean it exist now or looks like that now.

The second two datapoints suggest that something named the Kindle will be released soon.

Note that I don't include the NYTimes article. After all I've learned about journalism in the past month, I don't trust the reliability of that article.

BKeeper
10-12-2007, 03:36 PM
I'd like to propose another possibility:

"It exists but after leaking it they realized that almost everybody thought the design was not "optimal", so they wisely decided to go back to the drawing board. "

(which is what more companies should do when they realize they have screwed) :p

or

"it exists but since they modified the design, it's not production ready yet, so on Monday they'll announce the platform and unveil a prototype which will likely ship early next year."

I'd love to be wrong.

totally unrelated matter: yes, I confess I'm an iLiad user. :D

Nate the great
10-12-2007, 03:43 PM
I'd like to propose another possibility:

"It exists but after leaking it they realized that almost everybody thought the design was not "optimal", so they wisely decided to go back to the drawing board. "

(which is what more companies should do when they realize they have screwed) :p

or

"it exists but since they modified the design, it's not production ready yet, so on Monday they'll announce the platform and unveil a prototype which will likely ship early next year."

I'd love to be wrong.

totally unrelated matter: yes, I confess I'm an iLiad user. :D

This is an excellent possibility that I hope is wrong. I want the Kindle sooner, not later.

Oh, Why Not?
10-12-2007, 06:38 PM
Alas, I think the Kindle has burst into flames and we only taste the ashes now.

NatCh
10-12-2007, 06:41 PM
Nicely turned phrase there, Oh, Why Not? :nice:

Oh, Why Not?
10-12-2007, 08:29 PM
Thank you NatCh. Except now I have a blister on my tongue and can only have ice cream for dinner.

JSWolf
10-12-2007, 08:44 PM
The Kindle has been used for Kindling and is now no longer.

CommanderROR
10-13-2007, 10:09 AM
I think this whole things is very strange indeed.
I'd say the "Kindle Editions" popping up on Amazon.com were perhaps there to test the waters for ebook pricing, however, the Kindle FCC thing and the Newspaper-article don't fit in that category in my opinion...I'm looking forward to seeing what might or might not happen on the 15th...

HarryT
10-13-2007, 10:59 AM
My prediction is that absolutely nothing is going to happen.

yvanleterrible
10-13-2007, 12:19 PM
That could be Harry.

What we know of Kindle was from a stupid governmental compliance rule leak. But when you look at pictures of kindle, there is a lot of work behind this demo, all of it translating to a huge investment. Who knows of Amazon having holds in manufacturing? They couldn't be doing it themselves? I don't believe they would even be involved in R&D. The question is who built it?
As I've said elsewhere, it's easyer to abandon secrecy between R&D and manufacturing. I think they are at this stage now and are pressured to make an announcement. When you are not the manufacturer, you can not shutdown information from leaking. Why? Because if you don't have hold of manufacturing, there are multiple companies you have to deal with. Spring makers, plastics molders, screen suppliers etc. All of whom have to be sworn to secrecy. But that kid sweeping floors and emtying garbage pails in that button manufacturing shop, the one who's about to be laid off because he's always late and who happened to have picked up interesting pictures while emptying pails, well that kid can take to vengeance. When a leak comes it is difficult to save face. Better to come up clean yourself, than to have someone do it for you in an unflattering way with things all wrong.

HarryT
10-13-2007, 12:54 PM
Sorry - please let me clarify. I have absolutely no doubt at all that there is a Kindle "in the works", and that it will appear on the scene sooner or later. My only doubt is that there's going to be any sort of formal "launch" of it on Monday. It seems relatively clear that some sort of launch at the Frankfurt book fair was indeed planned, but equally clear that, for some reason, it got postponed.

RWood
10-13-2007, 05:31 PM
I think Amazon is too far down the pipeline to change from its current design (not that that design is what we have seen.) If a 15 Oct launch was planned, the new units are already somewhere -- either in a warehouse or on a boat or perhaps still in customs. Then again, maybe they were made in China and had too much lead in them.

RalphTrickey
10-13-2007, 10:22 PM
Search for Kindle on Amazon. Two devices show up in electronics even though they have no mention of Kindle on their page.

The Iliad can also be get the Les Echos subscription, BTW.

yvanleterrible
10-14-2007, 11:04 AM
Sorry - please let me clarify. I have absolutely no doubt at all that there is a Kindle "in the works", and that it will appear on the scene sooner or later. My only doubt is that there's going to be any sort of formal "launch" of it on Monday. It seems relatively clear that some sort of launch at the Frankfurt book fair was indeed planned, but equally clear that, for some reason, it got postponed.

I did get your meaning Harry. What I think we'll get is some kind of 'vaporous' launch date like the three Sony gave us last year with the PRS500. That's the best one can do in their 'shoe type', if I can say, and without losing face.

yvanleterrible
10-15-2007, 11:00 AM
It looks more and more like you are right about a launch not taking place now Harry.
We only have to remember this hype comes directly from an Engadget heresay. How could we have trusted this for so long? :grin:

HarryT
10-16-2007, 04:53 AM
This is one occasion on which I would have been delighted to have been wrong :).

THJahar
10-30-2007, 08:48 PM
Right, I'm just wondering what the current status of the kindle is.
We started off with pretty good info that the kindle was coming out in October.
We had kindle editions appear on test sites.
We had various news articles and trade show 'talks'
But as of yet we have nothing.
Now did amazon:

A) Intend to launch the kindle in October, but technical issues prevent it?
B) Never intend a launch but didn't control the information flow
c) Do not have a product and have no intention of launching an e-ink reader
d) Did intend a launch but copyright/drm/negotioations with publishers prevent it?

Your thoughts and further ruminations would be welcome.

astra
10-31-2007, 08:00 AM
don't think we will see it before spring 2008

nekokami
10-31-2007, 09:45 AM
Meanwhile, Amazon is now selling the Sony Reader. What if that's all this turns out to be? Amazon may have dropped the whole Kindle idea by now.

yvanleterrible
10-31-2007, 09:47 AM
Maybe just long enough to redesign. :grin:

vivaldirules
10-31-2007, 10:18 AM
There's still time for them to release it and get a good Christmas sales "bump" this year on this novel, pricey device but they would likely need to do so in the next few days. I feel confident that it's forthcoming but if not by about November 10, then I agree that it probably won't be until next spring.

yvanleterrible
10-31-2007, 03:58 PM
November 10th look realistic... for 2008 that is!