I am sure this headline is enough to make your fresh milk sour, but editors of Computerworld in their eternal wisdom have named e-books - and the Sony Reader in particular - one of the 21 biggest technology flops that have "utterly failed to live up to their hype."

E-book readers started being sold about 10 years ago and are still being developed. The most recent entrant into the market is the Sony Reader. But they're still a flop. ... [T]he devices themselves just aren't good enough yet. Some folks find them unwieldy; others say they're difficult to use. And for many people, there's just no replacing the old-fashioned, reassuring feel of paper.
Link: Full story (http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9012345&pageNumber=1)

The headline might have made my milk sour, but the picture you included got it bubblin'... uh, how much did you say that lucious little device costs, miss? :D

But seriously... although the quote you included clearly states their position, it's really just heresay, subjective comments. More telling, I think, is this:

However, e-books are much in need of standardization. Specifically, the number of potential formats for e-books remains huge -- the Wikipedia entry for e-books lists more than 20 formats. It's not pleasant to contemplate buying an e-reader and then finding out that a book or periodical you want is available only in an incompatible format.
I have to agree with them there. We need to bring down e-Babel, and soon.

More hype than use? Doesn't an excessive amount of hype mean that it's been heard by more than just the core people interested in it?

It's very hard to say something is over-hyped when most people have never heard of E-books and even the stores selling the ereader weren't sure if they carried it or what it was.

Sounds like a reviewer is still trying to justify his stand on the ereader being a complete piece of trash that will never sell. ("I know you like your new ereader, boss, but it's a fluke! Look! This new article I wrote AGREES it's a flop! It'll never sell more than a couple hundred units! Would you quite reading that thing and listen to me?)

Okay, I will agree that calling it an "iPod for books" was over-hyped since the programs associated with it plus the large amount of third part adds are what make the iPod the current hyperbole target and no ereader out there has anything except its nice, clear type and great read time.

At least, unlike most of the other products in their list, e-books are still coming along. Not sure why they'd call something an ultimate flop, when it's still being developed... they should reserve such a moniker for products that are clearly dead and gone, IMO.

The headline might have made my milk sour, but the picture you included got it bubblin'... uh, how much did you say that lucious little device costs, miss? :D
Heh, I thought of ways for e-books to make up for the technology flop. :D

Heh, I thought of ways for e-books to make up for the technology flop. :D

Yeah, but that too will be better when they come in color! :blush:

I think CW was just looking for random technologies that are not mainstream to get their 21 flops. Saying that e-books have utterly failed and at the same commenting that "devices themselves just aren't good enough yet" - YET! - is enough for me to consider this article utter crap.

I think that e-book as a concept has been a flop so far, 30 years ago people were already talking about e-books too and got disappointed because it never became widely used.

E-ink devices cannot be considered a flop so far. They solve one of the biggest problem that we had with e-books: it's a screen, yet it's as good looking as a book. They can really turn the concept of e-books into a hit.

We need to remember that the author is trying to get some shock value and interest fromthe article. So, when translated, "flop" means that it's not living up to a very high potential. As someone noted, e-books are still in the early stages and moving forward, not a "has-been" like some of the other items whose day has passed them by.

And both Sony Reader and e-ink are a remarkable step forward, along with some of the previous lcd devices and PDAs/Smartphones in general. With the Sony Reader, we now finally have a commercial product that works well for the average person on the street that loves books. And I bet that interest and sales have exceeded Sony expectations. I'd say that's not really what you would legitimately call a "flop".

Look at the quote Alex pulled from the recent Business Week article. Sounds promising to me, even if they did forget about the Sony Librie.The Sony Reader is a very good first foray into the electronic book market. While there's no substitute for the feel you get with a real book, with a few adjustments to the software, and as more books become available digitally, it could quickly turn into the device everyone wants to have.But, I think the point is right if you look past the sensationalism - e-books have super potential and could have been much further along. They are, relatively speaking, a disappointment so far to fans and critics alike, mostly because of DRM and format issues.

But even as a disappointment, for those that care enough to get over all the obstacles and don't mind the small early market, I'd say it's still pretty exciting, as we can see from the enthusiasm at MobileRead. It's not because MobileRead is a perfect web site that it's so much fun to talk about and learn about e-books and devices. It's because it's a great topic and there are many of us with a very real interest. It's very good to know I'm not the only one, because this general and widespread appeal is a huge reason why e-books are destined to be a future success. Someday...

I must also say that this article seems like a bit misleading...

The Devices are not perfect yet, but that's not really an issue yet. The only thing I would say is truly lacking is readily and easily available LEGAL content. That has also been one of the big problems when ebooks first appeared...and it will continue to be that way until all the DRM problems are finally solved. Either we need one universal (DRM or no) format or we need ebooks that can easily be converted to multiple formats.

Calling ebooks a failure is clearly not realistic...the success of the Sony Reader has clearly surprised even Sony...and they built and advertised the thing... ;)

Well, I enjoy my flop every day so far.

After reading the article and seeing the actual proposed flops I agree that e-books are different from most of the other items because they have not been bypassed by anything and to suggest that the book scene will remain forever mostly paper is ridiculous. Sure paper books have some advantages and they will still be with us for a while but more and more reading is done digitally.

The move to e-publishing is bumpy, slower than we here would like it, but it happens as we see for example with newspapers and magazines most dramatically, and I think it will only accelerate as more external pressures mount over publishers/brick and mortar sellers

And similarly with some other things on that list that while flops the way stated there, they are actually happening in more useful and acceptable form (net currency, well we have PayPal, virtual reality well maybe not with goggles but the Net is evolving quite dramatically toward a parallel reality with all the social sites including this one and fantasy ones like Second Life)

My thoughts are mixed on this article. Although I definitely wouldn't call it a flop, I look at it more as up and coming. If you look at the digital music industry before the Ipod came in, they could had written the same thing about that subject. There were so many failures that came out until 2001-2002. Now when you think digital music, there is one device that comes to mind.

At this point as great as our Readers are, you still dont see them all over, and there is still not a lot of recognition out there, or high enough demand in the E-book market. I think E-Ink in general is beginning to, and will continue to change that. We are definitely alot further along tech wise where e-books are concerned, but there is still a long way to go before this becomes a technology that everybody has and uses, and/or wants. I think when we are able to integrate magazines and newspapers in the same page format as the paper versions, and popular comic books for the kids, then we will see significant growth.

I am sure this headline is enough to make your fresh milk sour, but editors of Computerworld in their eternal wisdom have named e-books - and the Sony Reader in particular - one of the 21 biggest technology flops that have "utterly failed to live up to their hype."

eBook exec 1: Hey! Let's price eBooks at the same price a hardcover. After all, having an "e" before "book" means that the consumers are getting something special - just like a hardcover book. Never mind that creating an eBook costs almost nothing compared to a hardcover.
eBook exec 2: And the DRM. Don't forget that. We don't want those pesky reader loaning, selling or giving away their eBooks. That would cut into our profit margin.
eBook exec 3: And let's change the format or reader every year or so to make sure that people have to re-purchase their eBooks if they want to re-read them.
eBook exec 1: Great ideas! It's like printing money!

Does anyone wonder why eBooks didn't live up to their hype?

The only thing I would say is truly lacking is readily and easily available LEGAL content.
Hear, hear!

I went to Baen again this week to try to find something to buy to support them, and since I'm not really into military SF, I'm out of luck. Oddly enough, everything they offer that I want is in the "free library." :blink: And to be honest, even if I wanted to mess around with DRM, there's still very little out there (on the legal market) that I'm interested in buying.

When I voted in their poll I noted that only 1% had selected the eBook option. This means that most people do not regard it as a major (or rather the major) flop. Some of the items were groundbreaking such as the Apple Message Pad, most were efforts to buck a trend that was already moving in another direction. eBooks is the direction and the only things holding it back are a lack of standardization and publishers still stuck in the early 20th century -- copyright laws in place but buggy whips still in wide use.

I went to Baen again this week to try to find something to buy to support them, and since I'm not really into military SF, I'm out of luck. Oddly enough, everything they offer that I want is in the "free library." :blink: And to be honest, even if I wanted to mess around with DRM, there's still very little out there (on the legal market) that I'm interested in buying.
Baen has quite a few fantasy books. And not all of their SF is military.

Something that has to be pointed out is that no reader so far is at the price tipping point for success yet. No model is sold worldwide also.

The promised flexible plastic models will surely help attain this 'Graal'. :)

We're living this period with anxiety and some journalists feel they have to jump the gun and kill it in the egg at that process. Or is it the 'talk of me in good or talk of me in bad but talk of me' marketing scheme.

How many people know about the existence of ebook readers and how many about eink? The knowlege about ebooks is just starting to be spread.

The second most common question I get about my Reader (after, "what is that?") is, "where do you get books?"

I simply don't understand comments like that, and they sound to me like nothing so much as a way to justify buying the Sony reader in the first place. The typical reader reads books in copyright every day. I am part of a book club, and over the past 2 years, we have read 18 books: all of them were in copyright, i.e. not free. I, for one, will not change my reading habits to suit a gadget, however appealing. No ereader will ever get anywhere until the DRM problem is resolved, because only a very few will spend several hundred dollars on a device that can load only a particular encoding. Last week I ran into someone who had bought the Sony reader and returned it because, though in the software business, he found it annoying to have to download books at all. This is the kind of objection that will have to be dealt with.

he found it annoying to have to download books at all.That's the sort of comment I find incomprehensible. :shrug:

The comment I get most often is, "can you transfer your notes to some other system afterward?" People usually see me taking notes on my iLiad. I read less in public (or people don't feel as free to interrupt me, perhaps.)

Perhaps radleyp's acquaintance didn't like the particular Sony Connect download interface. That wouldn't be the first complaint I've heard about it.

Perhaps radleyp's acquaintance didn't like the particular Sony Connect download interface. That wouldn't be the first complaint I've heard about it.Well, that I wouldn't have any trouble understanding! :wink:

I date back to the 70's. If he considers the eBook a flop. What does he think of computers? Esp the PC WinTel boxes? Those were garbage! 4 color screen? Costly? limited or non existing software. One program running at one time. Mac, Atari ST, Amiga were superior to the lonely DOS box. Under his thinking computer's esp a Wintel box is a major flop.

Finally the screens and battery life have gotten to the point of usability on eBooks. And its only going to get better.

Grrr... the irony of the situation is that they'll be eating their words shortly and will probably say they never made that statement. I remember when the Palms first came out, it took a few years to catch on (with alot of innovation), but now they (the PDA concept) are mainstream and ultimately being being merged with the latest PIM's; i.e., cellphones.

Yeah, saw the article this morning. What I found funny was the comment about formats. Aren't there also heaps of video formats? graphics formats? Is digital video considered a flop because of that? They're just wankers, wanted to write a critical article, a nice little list, and this is all he could come up with...oohhh puhleaaase.

No, ebooks are the biggest publisher flop. The prices are too high and many publishers want DRM protection. The high prices invite piracy for obvious reasons; DRM likewise as it prevents you from moving from one reader/device to another.

Format? Who would care if they got rid of DRM. There would soon be plenty of web-sites that would convert them from one format to another. Or they would be sold in good old HTML.

I agree... publisher resistance is the only thing that has held e-books back. Their resistance has led to ridiculously high prices, DRM, non-supported devices and formats, advising major authors not to publish e-formats, and writing contracts making it a financial burden on the authors to e-publish.

But despite the resistance of the industry itself, e-books are still growing and developing. That's not a flop, that's a rags-to-riches success story in the making. The little guy that Big Business just can't keep down. The Cinderella story. Which is why that article just wasn't well thought out in the first place (unless it was just written for controversy's sake).

Which is why that article just wasn't well thought out in the first place (unless it was just written for controversy's sake).

Yes, I think it was written for controversy's sake.

I wanted to buy the Sony reader, but too many of the books I was looking to read were simply not Sony readable, nor were newspapers, magazines, etc... Two of the books I just read were not available in any eformat. So, for me this remains the obstacle, which could be solved another way, by having a reader that was more than just a reader, but that's another device altogether. So I'll just muddle along until the "right" device comes along (will it ever?).

Adobe Digital Edition guy Bill McCoy just picked it up, too:

To me the real punch line of this article is that almost every listed flop has subsequently given rise to major technology successes. DAT tape paved the way for CDs, Newton for PDAs leading to smartphones, even the PC, Jr. arguably was a forerunner, at least conceptually, of the very successful iMac. The paperless office hasn't exactly come to pass, but I sure get a lot less inter-office mail and print a lot less than I used to, and I think Adobe Acrobat & PDF deserves at least some credit on that account.

Link: http://blogs.adobe.com/billmccoy/2007/04/ebooks_an_allti.html

As far as the sucessor to e-Book failures: a large-scale digital publishing market is inevitable and it's starting to happen.

Gord Bless 'im!

And I officially like his comment about "the reassuring look and feel of paper" being elitist. Heck, YES, I'd like to see every child in the world with an e-book full of textbooks and entertainment, unlike today's world where many children never see a printed book. I still suspect that it will be the education industry that ultimately defines the aspects of the e-book, starting with the children.

Hah, guess I have to add one more comment on the poor reasoning used to justify not wanting to support this technology... the cost to publishers seen as loss in sales and potential/probable piracy. Something publishers need to realize is that whether or not they support digital editions, their books will still end up in that format regardless of if they want it to or not, especially if it's a successful/popular work. We were seeing this well before eInk devices cropped up and the whole debate about eBooks started, people have been scanning and converting books to whatever format they've wanted for quite some time; making the work freely available to those willing to look.

Secondly, simply being on physical paper does not keep the book from being pirated. At the college I use to work at, students from foreign countries would show up with $10-15 versions of $200+ books. They would say the books were freely available at a cheap price in their home country (Pakistan, India, China, etc.) and they could not afford the originals due to the expence. I also remember ordering a book off of Half.com a while back, this was due to the textbook's premium price at the university book store; needless to say the one I received for <1/5 the cost turned out to be a reprint made in China, replete with newspaper-type paper throughout. I still used it and saved quite a bit, but I wasn't about to toss it as I already paid for it assuming it was legit.

This is a losing arguement for publishers, the only thing they are missing out on right now is revenue they are ignoring by refusing to adapt with change. Common sense shows that commerce is Darwinian by nature, if you don't adapt or evolve you will surely perish (or at the very least subsist at the lowest basic level).

Eric Flint from Baen Publishers puts it like this (http://preview.baens-universe.com/articles/salvos6):

"Electronic copyright infringement is something that can only become an "economic epidemic" under certain conditions. Any one of the following:

1) The products they want—electronic texts—are hard to find, and thus valuable.

2) The products they want are high-priced, so there's a fair amount of money to be saved by stealing them.

3) The legal products come with so many added-on nuisances that the illegal version is better to begin with.

Those are the three conditions that will create widespread electronic copyright infringement, especially in combination. Why? Because they're the same three general conditions that create all large-scale smuggling enterprises.

And . . .

Guess what? It's precisely those three conditions that DRM creates in the first place. So far from being an impediment to so-called online piracy, it's DRM itself that keeps fueling it and driving it forward."

Read the whole article!

"We need to remember that the author is trying to get some shock value and interest from the article. So, when translated, "flop" means that it's not living up to a very high potential."

Well said.

The article is very much correct in saying LCD-based ebooks have been flops (too big, low res, poor battery). Eink ebooks aren't as much flops, but stuff like Sony Reader is still not living up to the potential (and it's also getting a lot more hype). Still, I think it's just a matter of time. The article would have been much more correct if it were written a year or two ago, and I think it'll be entirely wrong a year or two from now.

Right now... it sort of has a point, especially if you tone down the sensationalist wording. I'm just glad I can transform pdfs with pdfrasterfarian and now pdfread. This makes the sony reader very useably, if far from perfect. Otherwise, I'd be angrily yelling "flop" with the best of them.

P.S. The exact wording of the article is: "First we present the biggest flops, in which the hype-to-success ratio was farthest out of whack. The 14 products and technologies listed here weren't all bad. In fact, some were quite good but were either too far ahead of their time or were victims of overblown expectations."

P.S. The exact wording of the article is: "First we present the biggest flops, in which the hype-to-success ratio was farthest out of whack. The 14 products and technologies listed here weren't all bad. In fact, some were quite good but were either too far ahead of their time or were victims of overblown expectations."

Well, that still doesn't sound like e-books to me. They've simply never been that strongly hyped. If hype-to-success is the formula, they should substitute it with Cold Fusion (the power source, not the database).

There seem to be a lot of opinions that DRM has been a major stumbling block for ebooks. DRM hasn't stopped Apple from quickly becoming the fifth (fourth?) largest music vendor in the US. Most consumers don't know what DRM is and don't care. Unfortunate, but true.

It's hard for me to believe at this point that somebody will have to do for ebooks what Apple did for emusic, make it cheap and easy. People don't seem to mind paying an arm and a leg for an iPod if the songs are only $0.99.

I am a new Sony Reader owner so I'm interested in the growth of Sony Connect. I'd like to see a plot of the books sold on Sony Connect as a fraction of all books sold in the same markets over time. I'd also like to see the same plot for iTunes music.

DRM hasn't stopped Apple from quickly becoming the fifth (fourth?) largest music vendor in the US.No, it hasn't stopped Apple, but Apple is doing a little bit to stop DRM (http://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=10238) :beam:

There seem to be a lot of opinions that DRM has been a major stumbling block for ebooks. DRM hasn't stopped Apple from quickly becoming the fifth (fourth?) largest music vendor in the US. Most consumers don't know what DRM is and don't care. Unfortunate, but true.

It's hard for me to believe at this point that somebody will have to do for ebooks what Apple did for emusic, make it cheap and easy. People don't seem to mind paying an arm and a leg for an iPod if the songs are only $0.99.

I am a new Sony Reader owner so I'm interested in the growth of Sony Connect. I'd like to see a plot of the books sold on Sony Connect as a fraction of all books sold in the same markets over time. I'd also like to see the same plot for iTunes music.

Comparisons between e-music and e-books are flawed because of the fact that for music it is very easy to put your cd's on a device like an Ipod, while for books it is very hard to put your p-books on a device like Sony. Were it to exist a magic box to take a p-book and digitize in 10 minutes in the format of your choice, that would be different and you would see more dedicated devices available.

Look at the statistics of itunes bought music/songs per ipod

And of course drm iTunes songs cost 99c, you can export to cd and reimport as drm free. Can you do this for Sony in a reasonable easy way?

And of course iTunes is moving away from drm...

But for e-books the main stumbling thing is still price/availablity in my opinion, with drm coming second and most likely dissapear sooner than later. The pricing thing though is not going away, since after all despite iTunes the music industry is suffering major revenue decline because acceptable digital pricing needs far more volume of sales than available right now (think it this way: when you buy a cd, you pay xx$ for essentially 1-2 songs, rarely more- you buy the songs directly you pay 2-3$...)

Comparisons between e-music and e-books are flawed because of the fact that for music it is very easy to put your cd's on a device like an Ipod, while for books it is very hard to put your p-books on a device like Sony. Were it to exist a magic box to take a p-book and digitize in 10 minutes in the format of your choice, that would be different and you would see more dedicated devices available.
I totally agree with that. You can have a CD at home and mp3 on the road etc...

A good thing would be if you could buy a paper book in the store and get the electronic version at the same time. People who don't care about the electronix text can forget about it, or, if they change their mind and buy a reader have a good starting point with their own library. This can get people interested in ebooks, and makes shopping for ebooks in brick and mortar stores possible. If you know what you want you can get your ebook online for a smaller price.
Yes, I don't know how to connect (no pun intended) the book with the ebook - for distribution (maybe you can download it from the publishers website in various formats) or DRM'ish to prevent separate sale to stay within "fair use" boundaries. But it is a nice Idea, and I would surely buy more books this way :).

(think it this way: when you buy a cd, you pay xx$ for essentially 1-2 songs, rarely more- you buy the songs directly you pay 2-3$...)
I don't know your musical preferences, but most CDs that I own work the other way around: there are at most 1-2 tracks that I don't like... :)

amazon may be the apple of the ebook world. they have the shopping part down.

for a flop a lot of people are starting to carry the sonys. today i saw 2 other people at lunch with one. once you got 1 you can spot 1.

I don't know your musical preferences, but most CDs that I own work the other way around: there are at most 1-2 tracks that I don't like... :)

Actually the 1-2 tracks thing comes from some music executives posting a recent article about the alarming drop-off in the music industry revenue. For myself, I would say that on average I really like about half the tracks on my cd's, but I am more into books than music so I do not really listen that much to music outside of my car.

It just annoys me to see iTunes given as such a shiny example of e-content success, when while undeniably relatively succesful it's just a sideshow for Apple to placate the music industry while selling tons of iPods (rememeber Rip, Mix, Burn??). But the operative word is relative, since the revenue generated by it is far away from compensating (and even forecasting to compensate) the steep drop off in cd-sales revenue.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070412-drm-lock-ins-and-piracy-all-red-herrings-for-a-music-industry-in-trouble.html

There seem to be a lot of opinions that DRM has been a major stumbling block for ebooks. DRM hasn't stopped Apple from quickly becoming the fifth (fourth?) largest music vendor in the US.
Some people have addressed this, but their answer... ripping CD's??? come on!

iPod became popular because of Napster!

Without napster, a hard drive mp3 player would have had no reason to exist. Zero.

Without thousands of songs from napster, no one would even want to listen to music for hours each day!

Anyone who's bought an iPod now and gets all their songs from itunes/ripped cds is a poser (bought it just cuz everyone else did) and is not enjoying their iPod. I don't have research for this, but i'll bet $500 that those people listened to their toys for a few weeks and then threw them on a desk somewhere. Maybe... maybe.. they use them the one time a month they go to the gym.

If ebook readers become popular now, it will similarly be because of file sharing. If ebooks have not become popular it is not because 'drm strangled them,' it's because people don't know where to get bountiful, free content. Personally, I have figured this part out and it's the only reason i'm enjoying my Reader. Until other people do too, ebook devices will flop except as niche toys for the rich.

a slightly more off-topic rant continued...

P.S. please cut it out with the "the music industry is dying, waah." Although it might surely seem logical that it would, the statistics saying that seem to be cooked up by people and not real. If you look at the arstechnica article, all the plotpoints are "estimates." The one that isn't, for 2005, actually shows a RISE in revenue. The industry has an incentive to make its outlook look grim and pitiful so that it could have an excuse to press measures that would get it more money.

P.P.S. I should mentin there is one piece of content I do pay for. I have a Scientific American Digital subscription mostly because they autocharge my card (admittedly, it's also because they give you drm-free pdfs). If i had to pay $3-$5 for each issue, I wouldn't (drm or not). Decision-time micropayments don't work! They just leave a bad feeling with you when you do it.

There are only two schemes that could work. Two schemes that would give the sort of limitless, zero-marginal-cost access to content that would make iPods and eBooks work. Either monthly subscriptions (which haven't took off mostly due to half-hearted marketing) or government-funded mandatory licensing (sounds commie but translates to digital libraries. it even has a benefit of reducing commercialism and promoting quality).

But even if you consider the "worst" possible case... that no one pays (more than 10 cents) for content EVER... the result is actually a lot better than one might imagine! They have tons of great music in China and Russia, and on top of that they have flashy concerts on TV every night featuring dozens of performers. Hell, it might even be better than our system. I can't say I can predict how it would work for books, but the lesson is:

Don't buy into the bullshit put forth by the rich and powerful (rich because they're powerful, powerful because they're rich) who are trying to save their own asses. Sometimes, even, they lie that their asses need saving so that they can marshal even more power (or at least not have to learn new tricks).

Comparisons between e-music and e-books are flawed because of the fact that for music it is very easy to put your cd's on a device like an Ipod, while for books it is very hard to put your p-books on a device like Sony. Were it to exist a magic box to take a p-book and digitize in 10 minutes in the format of your choice, that would be different and you would see more dedicated devices available.


Comparisons between emusic and ebooks are not flawed, just difficult (I'll save my apples/oranges comparison for another day). Books are just skipping an intermediate format/storage/conversion step. Music and books are both content that people want to bring along with them and products consumers spend a fair amount of disposable income on. Both are marketed by industries run by greedy, short-sighted, fearful, people. Both industries are grappling with the future of digital content, the music industry being a little further down the path.

Although I love the screen and battery life of my Sony Reader, the rest of the Reader and the Connect software experience reminds me strongly of the Creative mp3 player and it's software I experimented with in the 90's.

In the case of Creative, I had plenty of content lying around my house in the form of CDs. I had to find a program to rip them and learn how to use it. There was no CDDB, or at least a ripper hooked to CDDB, so I had to fill in the mp3 tags myself. I had to calculate the megabytes of the music I wanted to listen to to see if it would fit and then drag-and-drop it to the Creative. The Creative had no way to manage playlists other than to manipulate the mp3 tags. It wasn't long before I gave up. Those of you with Readers know this drill.

Then the iPod came along. The genius of iPod is largely in iTunes. Rip/mix/burn and CDDB made it easy to import and manage music. Later, Apple added the iTunes Music Store and that's when emusic really took off. And as much as I despise DRM, the ease of purchase with the iTMS and the a-la-carte nature of the songs was occasionally irresistible.

Granted, Sony Connect has added to the Creative model by adopting the iTMS approach to selling books. And the books are generally cheaper (slightly) than their print equivalents at Amazon. So I gave it a try. I figured if a major company is going to try to make ebooks work and the Reader does have the great screen and battery life then I should support them.

I think Sony Connect/Reader will need a lot more to succeed, to avoid The Curse of the Flop. I don't think the average consumer cares too much about using Book Designer (great program!) to format Project Gutenberg texts. The average consumer wants easier software and cheaper books. But I'm a cynic about the wisdom of the average consumer and I think the vast majority of consumers don't know what DRM is and don't care. It will take years for consumers to understand content portability.

And I'm not too excited about EMI's decision to sell DRM-free music. EMI is still just one (large) company and still a member of the RIAA, an industry organization who thinks the best way to eradicate piracy is to sue it's customers indiscriminately. I think we've still got a long way to go before we emerge from the Dark Ages of DRM. But I believe eventually we will buy almost all of our content in digital form and DRM-free. The Enlightenment.

Without napster, a hard drive mp3 player would have had no reason to exist. Zero.

I, for one, have never bought music off of Napster (and, for that matter, only 3 songs off of iTunes). 99% of the music on my MP3 player comes from my already-owned collection of CDs and ALBUMS, which are already filled with my favorite music, jazz. There's plenty of old music that hasn't been put on CD yet, including a lot of classic jazz. An MP3 player allows me to bring it with me on my motorcycle, walking to work, or exercizing.

Napster never had much of a draw for people who didn't listen to rock. But the rest of us could still appreciate MP3 technology, and take advantage of it. (and, for that matter, only 3 songs off of iTunes)

There are only two schemes that could work. Two schemes that would give the sort of limitless, zero-marginal-cost access to content that would make iPods and eBooks work. Either monthly subscriptions (which haven't took off mostly due to half-hearted marketing) or government-funded mandatory licensing (sounds commie but translates to digital libraries. it even has a benefit of reducing commercialism and promoting quality).

Subscription plans are okay... as long as you can keep your content once the subscription lapses. If I let my Scientific American paper magazine subscription lapse, my last five years of SA aren't going to spontaneously combust on my shelf. If you lose the material with the subscription, that's not a subscription... that's a lease.

Government-funded mandatory licensing (of what? The books? The readers?) will not work internationally, will only hand commercialism over to Big Business, and will put quality control in the hands of the government. Right.

Without napster, a hard drive mp3 player would have had no reason to exist. Zero.

Without thousands of songs from napster, no one would even want to listen to music for hours each day!

Anyone who's bought an iPod now and gets all their songs from itunes/ripped cds is a poser (bought it just cuz everyone else did) and is not enjoying their iPod.

...

If ebook readers become popular now, it will similarly be because of file sharing. If ebooks have not become popular it is not because 'drm strangled them,' it's because people don't know where to get bountiful, free content.

...

If you look at the arstechnica article, all the plotpoints are "estimates." The one that isn't, for 2005, actually shows a RISE in revenue. The industry has an incentive to make its outlook look grim and pitiful so that it could have an excuse to press measures that would get it more money....I'm sorry alex_d, but I'm confused. I'm not trying to argue with you, but you seem to be saying that nobody pays for music (except, presumably, for those who pay for a single copy and post it on the web for everyone else to not pay for,), and that the music industry is making more money than they were before all this not paying for music started happening....

It seems to me that if nobody much pays for music, that the music industry wouldn't make more money from that scenario, and if the music industry is, making more money, then someone must be paying for what they're selling....

Like I said, I'm not trying to be argumentative, but that just doesn't make sense to me. :shrug:

Personally, I think it's more likely that a lot (okay, a lotta lots) of folks are sampling the dubiously free content, but then subsequently paying for content from artists they like (both from honesty, and from a desire to see more offerings from those artists). That would seem to better explain both the widespread file 'sharing' phenomenon and the rise in music revenues.

Personally, I think it's more likely that a lot (okay, a lotta lots) of folks are sampling the dubiously free content, but then subsequently paying for content from artists they like (both from honesty, and from a desire to see more offerings from those artists). That would seem to better explain both the widespread file 'sharing' phenomenon and the rise in music revenues.

I'd agree there... traditionally, that's the natural result of sharing, whether it's music, movies, or books. It's the act of spreading the word that gets people out to the stores, to buy that artist they just discovered (the business model of radio, and the business benefit end of the public library system). The more sharing, the more people discover an artist, and go buy their works.

That's a major reason why DRM works against the proliferation of e-books, and for that matter, books in general. When you can't share, you can't turn on new readers, and they don't buy books.

I have about 2 TB of storage on my music server filled from my CDs and Lp albums that I have transcribed over the years. Many of the albums were never issued in CD form. Some of the 78 rpm records I have transcribed were never even issued in 33-1/3 rpm or 45 rpm formats. This is what fills my Creative mp3 player. This is what I listen to while I type this response. Sure there were many long nights tagging the files and some of those I have never listened to. They are there for that day when I want to listen to them. I have boxes of DVD backups stored off-site to ensure that I don't have to do all of that again.

Was it worth it? Yes!

It is mostly a matter of what each person wants. Those of us currently at MobileRead seem to be the ones that will take the time to work at their content. The average consumer just wants it simple and easy to use. Will eBooks get there? Yes, but not soon. Music required a standard format (mp3) as did video (vhs over betamax.)

Sharing, bootlegging, or piracy if you care to call it by those names are just noise that obscure the real problem of old established businesses that are resisting any change to their traditional business models in light of the technology advances. Rather than endorse them and lead the market they are doing all they can to keep the new technologies from being used to their fullest. Under the banner of "trusted platform" the new CPUs and operating systems such as Vista are large DRM schemes that provide others with control of your computer to say what you may and may not do with it but cannot keep your kids from hard core porn for that would not be "right."

The economics have shifted and the old business models will soon be in the trash heap of history. Where was the outcry of the buggy whip manufacturers when the automobile started to become popular? How many spoke out for the poor blacksmiths when the demand for horse shoes declined? Why are we hearing now about the poor publishers with their warehouses full of dead trees? Have we all become professional victims?

I have about 2 TB of storage on my music server filled from my CDs and Lp albums that I have transcribed over the years.
2 TB? #!&#*!@&!!

How many spoke out for the poor blacksmiths when the demand for horse shoes declined?
No one had to. The blacksmiths went to work manning the great iron and steel machines in the factories, joining everyone else in riding the wave of the future. (Take note, publishers.)

Subscription plans are okay... as long as you can keep your content once the subscription lapses. If I let my Scientific American paper magazine subscription lapse, my last five years of SA aren't going to spontaneously combust on my shelf. If you lose the material with the subscription, that's not a subscription... that's a lease.
First thing i'd like to say is that when it comes to reading, I don't understand why anyone would want to hold on to the stuff for very long. Especially SA. You read it, you've read it, you read something else.

Music, of course, is much different. Now i'm not saying subscriptions (and by definition the content has to expire) are the perfect solution. But when you compare having to pay every time you'd like to hear a song to see if you'd like it or having to pay HUGE sums just to have a large variety of music to listen to versus being tied to forever pay some sum a month but not having any hesitation, regret, or limits... then I really think subscriptions are the lesser of two evils.

The one problem with subscriptions, however, is the larger picture. If all music companies get everyone to go and buy subscriptions, why the hell would they release new music? Because of that unfortunate result, I'll reverse myself and say subscriptions are very bad. But indirectly.

Government-funded mandatory licensing (of what? The books? The readers?) will not work internationally, will only hand commercialism over to Big Business, and will put quality control in the hands of the government. Right.
Yes, of books (and of music). I have no idea what you mean when you say "handing commercialism over to Big Business." Of course, it's possible a corrupt government will destroy the system. But realize that we already have a system, the libraries, which work very well. (There also exist many other government institutions which fund the creation of intellectual property, like those funding art (eg PBS, NPR) or which spend hundreds of billions of dollars on scientific research (eg NIH, NSF).) Seems to me they work very, very well, and I think the government can be expected to continue making such decisions responsibly. Some people who think government can't be trusted for anything don't seem to ever try to look at the real world.

But even a simple fallback plan of compensating the author on a flat rate relative to his popularity will work very well too.

But you know what? Forget everything I just said. (About subscriptions, governments, etc.)


In the end, I think a market-based approach would probably work best. But what is a market based approach? NO, IT DOESN'T FUCKING MEAN LETTING EVERYONE DO WHATEVER THE FUCK THEY WANT. As Adam Smith pointed out in the very first book to present the principles of capitalism, a market economy is one ruled by competition. A phenomenon which steers individual players so beautifully and benevolently that he likened it to an animate being, an invisible hand.

What he forgot to mention is that it is also in every player's interest to destroy competition. And the _free market left to its own devices will do just that. With mergers, oligopolies, cartels, and price-fixing.

We've remedied that a tiny bit with antitrust laws, but if we go further and just split up the big 4 music publishers and the similar cartel of book publishers into a hundred smaller firms we will restore the invisible hand and create a true market system. With all its benefits. Prices will plummet, quality will rise, and we would not be hearing a single mention of DRM or ridiculous figures such as having to pay $10,000 to fill an iPod.

I would not have to argue for any alternatives to just buying content piece by piece.

And because individual publishers won't have so much power (in marketing, sales channels, etc.), authors will end up getting bigger cuts and make plenty of money.

Competition, not laissez-faire, is the nature and cause of the wealth of nations.

BREAK UP THE HUGE PUBLISHERS INTO SMALL COMPANIES.

Under the banner of "trusted platform" the new CPUs and operating systems such as Vista are large DRM schemes that provide others with control of your computer to say what you may and may not do with it but cannot keep your kids from hard core porn for that would not be "right."
That's because pornographers don't use DRM. You know why? Because there are so many of them that there is an incredible amount of competition. This competition drives down prices to such an extent that so much content is given away as freebies that many people can get by just fine with neither paying nor stealing. And the quality of this free (or cheap) content is FAR higher than that of the content that gets sold through the older channels (eg PPV or DVD) which haven't yet been influenced as much by competition.

Competition is incredibly powerful. Of course you don't need to tell any economist that. What you do have to do is get it through their thick skulls how little true competition exists in the present markets. (They've been in denial about it for hundreds of years because assuming prevalent competition means vastly simplifying economic theories. They're too fond of competition's elegance to dare think that's not actually the way the world works.)

The solution, however, is straightforward. Force competition manually. (And simply braking up large companies is one strategy.)

First thing i'd like to say is that when it comes to reading, I don't understand why anyone would want to hold on to the stuff for very long. Especially SA. You read it, you've read it, you read something else.

Because some material is so good, that you want to read it again and again and again. Many years ago, I used to re-read the Lord of the Rings at least once a year - and every time I read it, I discovered something different.

You are correct about magazines, though. They tend to be timely and age very quickly. Specialty technical magazines may be an exception, though.

Music, of course, is much different. Now i'm not saying subscriptions (and by definition the content has to expire) are the perfect solution.

Subscriptions are not even a very good solution. Subscriptions are good for the consumer only if new, good content is being created regularly. Otherwise, your subscription is a really good value only while you are grabbing the old, good content.

And we've all seen how good the entertainment industry is at creating new, good content.

BREAK UP THE HUGE PUBLISHERS INTO SMALL COMPANIES.

I would argue that this is happening already.

I'll point to Scott Siegler's recent Ancestor book release. No big publisher would take it, so he went to a smaller press. Now, the demand basically buried that small press, but think that the small press likes that kind of problem.

With eBooks, publishers become irrelevant. They exist today because they make it economic for the average person to purchase a book. The costs of creating and distributing an eBook are effectively $0, so for eBooks they are no longer needed.

Effectively, the author becomes his own publisher when it comes to eBooks.

The solution, however, is straightforward. Force competition manually. (And simply braking up large companies is one strategy.)

As we've seen with the movie industry, economic forces will make this happen without the need for the gov't to step in (in the case of the movie industry, by the time the gov't got involved, the film cartel created by Edison was effectively broken).

What needs to happen is for the gov't to get its nose OUT. They need to stop passing laws that promote the status quo (like the DMCA and extensions to Copyright length). Competition can only exist when it's not locked down by stupid laws.

Heh. I would have joined this discussion yesterday, but the Noreaster took out my internet connection. Then the dog ate my homework. But thanks to rlauzon, I don't have much to add to yesterday's debate.

But I will say this: It may be that only one thing is holding e-books back from finally starting down the same path blazed by the online music industry... one common format.

A single e-book format, readable in its entirety or in selected parts by any and all readers (hardware and software) would go a long way towards consolidating the e-book market, cutting waste based on competing standards, creating fair competition, standardizing prices, eliminating DRM, de-confusing the public, and levelling all playing fields.

Overall acceptance of the MP3 format did all this for music. I believe overall acceptance of a similar e-book format (at most, two... one including multimedia content, one just text and images) will start the e-book industry down the same road.

The music industry also ignores probability. You just aren't going to have hugely increasing profits all the time. You might like that to be the case, but it certainly isn't going to happen.